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The Pick: Braves Team Total over 5.5 runs -135
Admittedly, this line is a bit juicy but I would not be surprised if this end up creeping up to 6.5 total runs. So, ideally, I’m jumping on this before that happens. The Braves have the benefit of facing Reds starter Mike Minor, who is simply not pitching like his former self when he was a Ranger. All of his starts have come in the month of June and he’s ended up with a 7.71 ERA (5.56 xERA) a 3.5 BB/9, a 3.51 HR/9 (!) and a 52.3% fly ball rate through just 25 2⁄3 innings. In these five starts, opposing teams have scored no less than three runs but that only happened once. In his other four starts, teams have scored at least four runs, including his last start against the Giants where they tagged him for six.
Even if by some miracle, the Braves don’t end up hitting Minor hard, they’ll get an equal opportunity against the Reds bullpen. They’ve by far been the worst in the league as of late, even when we stretch the time span to the last two weeks. During that stretch, they amassed a 7.68 ERA, a 4.6 BB/9 and a 2.6 HR/9. This Braves offense has been humming along as of late and should be able to tee off on anything the Reds throw at them tonight. Grab this 5.5 total before it reaches 6.5.
With this play here, we strictly want to focus on the starting pitching matchup of Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin. If you haven’t been paying attention, Gonsolin has been not only the Dodgers best starter but one of the best in the National League. He’s made 14 starts and has yet to allow more than two runs in any of them. Five of those starts, he departed without allowing a single run, as he continues to mow down each and every offense. In games where he’s taken the mound, the Dodgers have a record of 11-3, as they haven’t waited many of his stellar performances.
This brings us to tonight, where the Dodgers success on the run line through the first five innings has been. They’re 43-32 on the year and will look to add on one more against Blake Snell. He’s struggled since returning to the rotation at the end of May, allowing at least three runs in four of his seven starts. Snell has also been putting a lot of traffic on the base paths, sporing a 4.84 BB/9. Having shaky command is not something you want when facing the Dodgers, as they have a 9.7% BB% against lefties, which ranks sixth in the league. In all, this feels like a strong spot to back Gonsolin and the Dodgers to have the lead after five innings.
The Pick: Yankees run line -1.5 -130
Taking the Yankees to win straight up is not an attractive bet when the line is set at -210. So, instead, I’m looking to back them on the run line on the road against the Guardians. The Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound, who was nearly untouchable during the month of June. Aside from getting rocked against the Twins for seven runs, Cole threw 27 1⁄3 innings the rest of the month, allowing just two runs on 12 hits and 36 strikeouts. The Yankees were also an impressive 4-1 on the run line in his starts, including a win in that Twins game despite Cole imploding. This is also the second time that Cole will be facing the Guardians, a team he shutout through 6 2⁄3 innings allowing just four hits and striking out nine.
The Guardians have not done well covering the run line as home underdogs. In 15 games in this scenario, they’ve gone just 7-8 while failing to cover by just under half a run. In the series where these two teams met before, the Yankees covered the run line in two of the three games but won all of them. With Aaron Civale taking the mound tonight for the Guardians, someone the Yankees tagged for six runs on seven hits in three innings earlier this season, I feel good about the -1.5 line.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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