Most fans will remember the embarrassing opening laps to last season’s New Hampshire race. NASCAR was desperate to get the race in with the Olympics and the long break starting the next day. The race began on a wet track. The leaders pleaded with NASCAR to stop the race, but they were ignored and the favorites wrecked.
After the dust settled and the rain passed, the race began in earnest, and it was a great race. NASCAR chose not to apply PJ1 because of the modified event the night before. The result was a multi-groove track that left the racing up to the drivers. Long-run cars battled short-run cars all afternoon. It was a great race, and even in the lackluster Next Gen car, New Hampshire should once again provide surprisingly good racing.
As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire, which gets underway Sunday, July 17 at 3 p.m. ET.
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Race Winner — Ambetter 301
Ryan Blaney +600
There have been four races at flat tracks under one mile in length this season — Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and Gateway. Ryan Blaney has a Real Rating (a statistic that comprehensively synthesizes a driver’s race) over 0.90 in each race. His average Real Rating for those four races is 0.96. The next closest driver is his Team Penske teammate, Joey Logano, with a 0.86. Blaney is yet to officially win this season, but he did win the $1 million All-Star race at Texas. That’s a 1.5 mile intermediate track, but the proper Texas setup relies on perfectly adjusting for the flat banking in turns 1 and 2.
Matchups — Head 2 Head — William Byron vs Alex Bowman
William Byron -130
Nothing has changed. Alex Bowman is still the weak link at Hendrick in 2022. Chase Elliott has become the Alpha of late, but Byron and Kyle Larson aren’t far behind battling for the second spot. At the short, flat tracks, Byron’s average Real Rating is 0.79. That’s good enough to tie his teammate, Chase Elliott, for the third-best in the Cup Series. Alex Bowman is quite a ways down the list at 15th.
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Matchups — Head 2 Head — Tyler Reddick vs. Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick -115
The 2021 season was forgettable for Harvick. So far, the 2022 season has been more of the same. However, there has been an exception. Harvick’s Real Rating at the short, flat tracks ranks sixth. That average is weighed down by a wreck at Gateway (0.57 Real Rating). Last season, the SHR cars were all fast at New Hampshire. Aric Almirola won the race, and Harvick scored the third-highest driver rating.
Matchups — Head 2 Head — Aric Almirola vs Austin Cindric
Aric Almirola -135
It’s never comfortable picking drivers whose names easily sound like the word wreck. But in this case, Ar-wreck and Cind-wreck are in the same boat. Almirola won this race last season and his best races this season have been at short, flat tracks. In the four comparable races to New Hampshire, Almirola has the ninth-best average Real Rating. Cindric ranks 16th at the short, flat tracks. Also, this will be Cindric’s first Cup Series race at New Hampshire, and he was never particularly good in the Xfinity Series at New Hampshire, despite facing soft fields while driving great equipment and having a superstar crew chief.
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