The 3M Open takes place in Minnesota at TPC Twin Cities this week. Situated directly after The Open Championship and on the heels of more LIV defectors, the field is relatively sparse, with just a few big names at the top.
This week will be the fourth year the course will play host, and we should expect the scoring to be in the high, double-digit under-par range, similar to 2019 and 2020 — if the wind isn’t gusting four days straight. Over the previous three years, the average winning odds is +15000, with Matthew Wolff winning at +17500 in 2019, Michael Thompson winning in 2020 at +12500 and Cameron Champ’s victory last year coming in at +15000.
The landing areas off the tee are pretty generous, so the water shouldn’t play a huge factor off the tee this week if there’s no wind in the forecast. Approach shots should be treated with more attention, especially from 175 to 200 yards. TPC Twin Cities has an 18% higher rate of shots at this range over the PGA TOUR average. Golfers who aren’t hitting their long irons well, in addition to the windy conditions, could have contributed to the high number of water balls we saw last season. The abundance of water should equal more variance, and that’s why we’ve seen longer shots win; things can potentially switch quickly.
This week, saving some of your bankroll for in-tournament selections could be a prudent strategy, especially with only three years at TPC Twin Cities under our proverbial belts. Thompson was only one back after round one and tied for the lead starting on Friday, but Champ was four off the lead, and Wolff was eight back after round two.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Nick Hardy to Win (+4500) | Top 5 (+900) | Top 10 (+400)
The Illinois-native has been on quite a streak since finishing 14th at the U.S. Open last month. Since his top 15 at The Country Club, Hardy’s averaging 4.9 strokes gained tee-to-green over his previous two tournaments, resulting in an eighth-place at the Travelers Championship and a 30th at the John Deere Classic. Hardy should be on the shortlist of golfers to back if (or when) this becomes a birdie-fest. Over the previous 12 rounds, Hardy ranks 15th in par-5 scoring, fourth in birdies, and third in SG: off the tee.
Michael Gligic to Win (+10000) | Top 5 (+1600) | Top 10 (+750)
A top 10 at the John Deere Classic and near top 20 at the Barbasol Championship have me on the 6-foot-4 Canadian this week. The PGA TOUR veteran has been playing well, ranking 23rd in SG: off the tee and 12th in par-5 scoring over his previous 12 rounds. He’s also been able to go low thanks to a hot putter, ranking 10th in eagles gained, sixth in birdies and fourth in putting over his last dozen rounds. Ten of his last 12 rounds have been in the 60s, which is what he’ll need to keep up this week.
Callum Tarren to Win (+13000) | Top 5 (+1800) | Top 10 (+900)
It wasn’t long ago when we saw Tarren one off the lead at the U.S. Open. He finished with a respectable top 35 and followed it up with a sixth-place at the John Deere Classic a couple of weeks later. Tarren MC’d at the Genesis Scottish Open but ranked 33rd off the tee and 28th in par-4 scoring at The Renaissance Club, which should be positive takeaways for this week. With ample rest under his belt, we should expect Tarren to play more like he did at TPC Deere Run than overseas. A top five in Puerto Rico and 30th at The Honda Classic (PGA National) is also evidence that Tarren can score on any course type.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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