The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities is almost here, and some of us may feel a bit of a golf hangover with the last major of the season in the books. While I find myself in a similar slumber, we should be reminded this tournament has given us winners at long odds and has introduced us to golfers like Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa; the next PGA TOUR star could be in this field.
Tony Finau is the favorite per the DraftKings Sportsbook betting odds, but Sungjae Im gets the top spot this week by a slight margin. I may get my Finau Fan Club Presidency taken away, but the win equity with Im is higher. It wasn’t too long ago we were clamoring to anoint Im as the 122 U.S. Open champion leading up to the event. He ended up MC, but he’s been great off the tee, ranking fifth over the previous 12 rounds. The putter has been cold, but we know he’s keen on bermuda over other surfaces. Still, Im has gone low in birdie-fests and usually plays well on windy courses with a lot of water (see Florida Swing).
Finau and Hideki Matsuyama are both in the top three with high floors this week. They might not be positive EV in the outright market, but they could easily win this based on their experience and the field strength. Over the last 12 rounds in easy scoring conditions, Matsuyama ranks first in SG: Total and Finau ranks fifth in ball striking.
I’m not one to subscribe to jetlag or major hangover too much in the following weeks, but golfers like Joohyung Kim, and Sahith Theegala, who aren’t used to traveling overseas to a major then playing the next week, may experience some fatigue. Both are some of my favorite up-and-coming golfers to watch, but this may be a week they struggle.
Ryan Palmer, Nick Hardy, Rickie Fowler, Matthias Schwab, Michael Gligic, Lucas Glover and Callum Tarren are all golfers I’m higher on than the odds suggest. Hardy has been solid off the tee and with the putter over the past two dozen rounds, and both Gligic and Schwab are coming in with some form, doing well at the John Deere Classic earlier this season.
PGA TOUR Power Rankings
| RANK | GOLFER | PRE-TOURNAMENT ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| RANK | GOLFER | PRE-TOURNAMENT ODDS |
| 1 | Patrick Cantlay | +800 |
| 2 | Tony Finau | +1400 |
| 3 | Max Homa | +1400 |
| 4 | Cameron Young | +1800 |
| 5 | Will Zalatoris | +1200 |
| 6 | Cameron Davis | +3500 |
| 7 | Maverick McNealy | +2500 |
| 8 | Cameron Tringale | +4000 |
| 9 | Keegan Bradley | +3500 |
| 10 | Kevin Kisner | +3500 |
| 11 | Davis Riley | +4000 |
| 12 | Mark Hubbard | +5500 |
| 13 | Denny McCarthy | +3500 |
| 14 | Taylor Pendrith | +6000 |
| 15 | Joohyung Kim | +5500 |
| 16 | Chris Kirk | +4000 |
| 17 | Adam Scott | +2800 |
| 18 | Jhonnatan Vegas | +8000 |
| 19 | Adam Hadwin | +4000 |
| 20 | Sahith Theegala | +4000 |
| 21 | Russell Henley | +5500 |
| 22 | Webb Simpson | +5000 |
| 23 | Troy Merritt | +6000 |
| 24 | Chris Gotterup | +10000 |
| 25 | Michael Gligic | +13000 |
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
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