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MLB Picks for July 21: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

We begin the second-half of the MLB season sitting 43-37 on article plays. That’s a solid couple of months, particularly if you, like me, only ever bet the winners. What can I say? I’m blessed.

We’ll be keeping the card small for tonight’s odd slate of doubleheader madness, but if you’re yearning for some more bets, check out this futures article I wrote up yesterday.

Let’s dive in.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Giants ML (+120)

Am I surprised that the Dodgers are favored in this spot? Not particularly. Los Angeles has only been the underdog twice in its 90 games in 2022 and, as you’d expect, they’ve yet to be a home dog this season. Still, this is about as lopsided a pitching matchup in favor of the underdog as I’ve ever seen. I mean, Mitch White just isn’t anything special at this point in his career — a fact that’s been driven home in the 27-year-old’s past four outings. Since June 25, White has pitched to a 4.66 ERA and a 4.97 FIP, with an ugly 10.2% walk rate his biggest area of concern. In a word, White’s been underwhelming.

However, that is far from the case when it comes to Carlos Rodon. In fact, you could argue that Rodon’s been the best pitcher in the NL West in 2022. The lefty’s 2.14 FIP is the lowest qualified mark of any starter in the National League and Rodon hasn’t allowed an opponent home run since all the way back on June 7. In Rodon’s past seven appearances — a run that started with six shutout innings against these same Dodgers on June 12 — the former first-round pick is maintaining a sterling 1.57 ERA and 1.52 FIP. That’s all while limiting opposing bats to a paltry .217 wOBA. Los Angeles’ lineup can obviously hit anyone, but Rodon is elite, and I’ll take advantage of every opportunity I get to bet him at plus-money.

Mitch White Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

This just isn’t a good matchup for White, and I’m a little shocked his strikeout prop is this high, as he’s struck out three opponents or fewer in three of his last four starts. White isn’t someone who breaks the mold. Like most pitchers, his strikeout rate has fallen since his removal from the Dodgers’ bullpen, dropping from 28.2% as a reliever to just 20.1% as a starter.

He’s also struggled to strike out left-handed opponents. In fact, White’s registered a modest 15.9% strikeout rate against the 82 LHBs he’s faced in 2022. The reason for that is pretty simple: His slider is his best strikeout pitch. White’s garnered a very respectable 35.1% whiff rate on his slider this season, yet 92.8% of the sliders he’s thrown have been in right-on-right situations. His curveball hasn’t been nearly as effective. Look for this dynamic to play out on Thursday night, with the Giants likely stuffing the top of their lineup with as many as five left-handed bats.

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