After a truncated week thanks to the All-Star break, baseball is officially back in full swing this week. Monday features 12 games to choose from, so there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Orioles ML (+105)
The Orioles entered the All-Star break as one of the hottest teams in baseball, but a series with the Yankees will cool you off in a hurry. The Yankees took two of three vs. the Orioles, dropping them back to last place in the AL East.
Still, the Orioles are clearly an improved squad. They rank eighth in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and they’ll be facing a right-hander in Corey Kluber on Monday. Kluber has had a solid first year with the Rays, but he’s not the same pitcher that he was in his prime. His 3.87 xERA and 7.85 K/9 make him a roughly average matchup.
The Orioles will have a wild card on the mound in Austin Voth. He started the year in the bullpen, and he pitched to a disastrous 8.51 ERA across 24 1/3 innings as a reliever. He’s results have improved dramatically since joining the rotation, posting a 3.50 ERA and a 2.68 FIP in five starts. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but Voth isn’t nearly as bad as his full-season numbers suggest.
Ultimately, the Orioles are underpriced as home underdogs in this matchup. The sharps also seem to like the Orioles in this spot, garnering 56% of the dollars on just 33% of the bets.
Over 8.5 runs (-105)
The Braves and Phillies start an important series on Monday. Both teams trail the Mets in the standings, but the Phillies are falling out of the division race fast. They’re now 8.0 games behind the Braves, who are 1.5 games behind the Mets. Even with the expanded postseason, the Phillies are going to need to pick up the pace to earn a postseason spot.
They’ll face a tough matchup Monday vs. Max Fried, who has been the Braves’ best pitcher this season. He earned his first All-Star nod thanks to a 2.64 ERA across 119 1/3 innings.
However, Fried is left-handed, which should benefit the Phillies. They’ve been better in that split this season, posting a 109 wRC+. Most of their top remaining hitters are right-handed – Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins – so that makes sense. They should be able to scratch across a few runs, even against a tough pitcher like Fried.
The Braves should be able to hold up their end of the bargain. Ranger Suarez has been unable to duplicate his success from last season, posting a 4.07 ERA and a 4.13 xERA in 16 starts. The Braves have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking fourth in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and they’ve scored at least seven runs in two of their past three games.
Tigers ML (+140)
The Tigers are my favorite moderate underdog on this slate. They benefit from the schedule in a big way on Monday. They finished up a series at home over the weekend, so they haven’t had to do any traveling of late. Meanwhile, the Padres played the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, so they’ll have a quick turnaround.
Additionally, the much-maligned Tigers’ offense will be on the positive side of their splits. They’re facing a left-hander and Sean Manaea, and the Tigers have been a league-average offense against left-handed pitchers. Manaea is a quality pitcher, but his 3.74 xERA and 4.08 FIP aren’t terrifying.
Drew Hutchison will get the ball for the Tigers, and he has some blowup potential. However, his 4.27 FIP isn’t all that much worse than Manaea’s. The Padres’ offense has also slumped since the All-Star break, ranking 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Overall, there’s more than enough here to warrant a play on the Tigers.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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