Tuesday features another sizable MLB slate. There are 15 games to choose from, including a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-115)
The Subway Series is always a huge deal in New York, but it’s especially exciting this season. The Yankees and Mets have been fantastic through the first four months of the season, owning the first- and fourth-best records in baseball, respectively.
There are reasons to believe Tuesday’s matchup will be lower scoring. Both teams will have underrated starting pitchers on the mound, with the Yankees turning to Jordan Montgomery and the Mets turning to Taijuan Walker.
Montgomery got off to a phenomenal start this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his first 13 starts. He followed that up with nine earned runs in his next two outings, but he’s held his last four opponents to three earned runs or fewer. Overall, he’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA across 108 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Walker has put up incredible traditional numbers for the Mets. He’s pitched to a 2.55 ERA, which would rank ninth in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s also been on a tear in July, increasing his K/9 to 9.95 while pitching to a 2.55 FIP. He’ll have his hands full with a tough Yankees lineup, but Walker should be up to the challenge.
The under in this contest is also getting some attention from the pros. It has received 87% of the dollars on just 42% of the bets.
The Pick: Guardians ML (+125)
The Red Sox are in a tailspin at the moment. They did manage to win on Monday, but they’re still just 2-9 over their past 11 games. They’ve fallen all the way to .500 for the season, which puts them just half a game above the Orioles for last place in the AL East.
This matchup is also expected to feature plenty of scoring. The total currently sits at 10.5 runs, and both teams will have shaky starting pitchers on the mound. Bryan Shaw has a 5.12 xERA for the Guardians while Josh Winckowski has a 4.01 xERA for the Red Sox.
High-scoring games have more variance than low-scoring ones, and nothing Boston has done recently suggests they should be -150 favorites against a competent team. I’m happy to side with the Guardians.
The Pick: Twins ML (-115)
The Twins are another team that has received some sharp support on Tuesday. This line has already moved from the Twins as small underdogs to small favorites, which is not surprising since they’ve received the vast majority of the dollars.
The Twins will hand the ball to Dylan Bundy, who has been unlucky in his first year with the Twins. He’s pitched to a 4.71 ERA, but his 3.79 xERA is nearly a full run lower. He’s a prime positive regression candidate over the second half of the year.
On the other hand, the Brewers will be pitching a relative unknown in Ethan Small. He has some upside as a prospect, but he’s pitched to just 2 2/3 big-league innings in his career. He’s pitched to a 6.75 ERA and a 6.80 xERA in that minuscule sample, so he’s far from a lock to succeed in this spot.
Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with the known commodity in Bundy. The Twins also have a slight edge offensively, ranking fifth in wRC+ compared to 11th for the Brewers.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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