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NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Best Bets, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis, which starts on July 31 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

If it seems like NASCAR is road racing every week, it’s because they are. This is the third Cup Series road course event in little over a month. With the proliferation of road races, there are plenty of data points to analyze. As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis, which gets underway Sunday, July 31 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Race Winner — Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Chase Elliott +400

It’s summertime and Elliott historically gets hot in the summer. Elliott is on a hot streak and he’s the streakiest driver in NASCAR history. Not only did he win at Pocono last week, but he won the SRX dirt race the night before. Last but not least, Elliott is the best road course driver in the Cup Series. His 2022 road course Real Rating (my own statistical creation that comprehensively synthesizes all of a driver’s laps) is 0.92 — that’s tied for the highest rating this season. That’s quite a triad — summer, streak and road.

Some might not believe in the Chase Elliott hot steak theory. That’s a perception error. NASCAR is not like other sports. Streaks in NASCAR can be flukey like other sports, but good fortune is a product of team planning. It’s similar to successful scheming by a football coaching staff each week. Moments in the race or the football game have to go the way of the driver/player, but that moment is set in place by skilled engineers and coordinators.

Elliott might be on a hot streak, but would anyone believe that his engineer is on a hot streak? Mechanics don’t get lucky or hot. They follow science and math and build fast cars. And the teams that build a fast car one week are likely to build another fast car the next week. Hot streaks in NASCAR are just mechanics doing their jobs, and Elliott’s mechanics are doing their jobs.

Matchups — Head 2 Head — Denny Hamlin vs Ross Chastain

Denny Hamlin +230

Make no mistake, Ross Chastain has been the best road course driver this season (0.92 Real Rating). That’s three races. Hamlin has been one of best road course drivers for a decade. These odds are way too long for Hamlin. The No. 11 JGR Toyota hasn’t been as sporty at the road courses this season, but it did just unofficially win at a high-speed, flat track in Pocono. Some believe there is correlation between success at Pocono and road courses. Before last season’s inaugural Indy road course turned into Mario Kart with turtle shells taking out drivers, Hamlin was on his way to Victory Lane.

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Matchups — Head 2 Head — Austin Cindric vs Daniel Suarez

Austin Cindric -105

This is a battle between No. 4 and No. 6. If not for a poor COTA race, then Suarez could be ranked No. 1. Trackhouse Racing has built great road course cars this year. This shouldn’t be a surprise. The team is led by former road racer, Justin Marks. Suarez may have the equipment advantage but Cindric has the experience edge. Both drivers competed in the 2021 Cup Series race at The Brickyard, but Cindric also participated in the 2020 and 2021 Xfinity Series races at the Indianapolis road course.

Matchups — Head 2 Head — Michael McDowell vs Chris Buescher

Chris Buescher -125

This is an interesting matchup. McDowell gets too much credit for being a road course expert and Chris Buescher doesn’t get enough. It’s tight but all of the matchups this week are. There isn’t much daylight between any of the driver pairings. Their 2022 road course stats are similar. Their equipment has been equal this season. Has Front Row Motorsports stepped up or has Roush (RFK) taken a step down? Regardless, they’re equal. Also, both drivers have a road course win in the Xfinity Series. This could go either way, but the lean is with Buescher. McDowell and Front Row have reached their ceiling. RFK still has a lot to gain.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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