Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games; we’re going heavy on the total bases props.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
As much as I like the Reds as an opponent for Braxton Garrett, this specific matchup isn’t a good one for the Miami left-hander. Drury has crushed left-handed pitchers this season, and he’s been especially tough on them of late. Across his last 47 plate appearances against lefties, Drury has a 48.5% hard-contact rate and 51.5% fly-ball rate (putting the over on his home run prop in play at +245). That quality contact has turned into four doubles and six home runs, helping lead to Drury’s .489 ISO during that span.
Santander is rolling right now. He’s laced an extra-base hit in four of his last six games played, the last two being home runs. Although the Baltimore outfielder doesn’t have a great ISO against right-handed pitching this month, he’s getting the ball airborne often (30.4% ground-ball rate). That should play well against Drew Rasumssen. Tampa Bay’s Wednesday starter has a 26.1% line-drive rate against left-handed hitters across his last four starts. While he does have a 2.53 ERA against lefty bats throughout this stretch, Rasmussen’s 4.29 FIP during the same time frame indicates he’s due for some tough results against lefties.
Hernandez has the perfect marriage of form and matchup on Wednesday. He’s put together a .283 ISO against right-handed pitching this month on the back of four home runs and five doubles. Those extra-base hits have been the result of a 40% hard-contact rate and 35% line-drive rate. The last 80 right-handed hitters to face Adam Wainwright have almost put up the same hard-contact rate (39.3%), too. Across his last five starts, Wainwright has also surrendered a 29.5% line-drive rate to righties.
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