It’s a plate racing weekend, so cross your fingers and have fun. This might be the best weekend of the year to hit a long shot bet. As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart at Atlanta, which gets underway Sunday, July 10 at 3 p.m. ET.
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Atlanta is a plate track. Throw out any data from before the 2022 season. Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega are plate tracks. Although NASCAR no longer mandates restrictor plates, the limited horsepower and high banking creates pack racing and drafting. This in turn creates wrecks, many, many wrecks.
Atlanta is a new variation of the old familiar. It’s plate racing, but it’s the wildest product of plate racing in years. The last time plate racing was this volatile was in 2016. All four races that season were absolute wreck fests. The cars were a handful, and in subsequent seasons, NASCAR adjusted the plate track package to decrease volatility. Atlanta is volatile. Countless drivers talked about how out of control the cars were. Multiple leaders spun out, blew tires, and wrecked. Wrecks in the back of the pack are nothing. Wrecks in the middle are something. Wrecks in the front are madness.
It’s possible that the drivers have wised up. In Stage 3 in the spring race, they went single file. They could have done that on lap one, but they didn’t. They could do it on lap one on Sunday, but they won’t. The track will be hotter and slicker. There is good reason to be cautious, but this is a summer plate race with possibly one of the final tickets to the playoffs on the line. Summer Daytona is notorious, so why should Atlanta be any different?
The picture should be clear. The plan this week is to back the long shots. Go big or go home. Even the favorites feature decent returns, but with this race looking like an absolute garbage fire, then why not try to catch lightning in a bottle? Michael McDowell was a 100-1 winner in the Daytona 500 in 2021. This could very well be a replay of that event with even more chaos.
Race Winner — Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart
Chase Briscoe +2500 — He’s not a plate track winner, but he has been one of the most consistent finishers since his debut last season.
Aric Almirola +3000 — These are pretty good odds for a two-time plate track winner. He went Super Saiyan at Talladega by recording eight consecutive top-10 finishes from 2016-2020.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3500 — Also a two-time plate winner, he was battling for the lead on lap 201 when he got wrecked in the March Atlanta race.
Michael McDowell +3500 — Front Row Motorsports has always built great plate cars and have two wins to prove it. One of those wins was McDowell in the 2021 Daytona 500.
Brad Keselowski +4000 — Roush Yates engines can win at plate tracks. Stenhouse did it and Newman was close several times. BK has the talent, he just needs the luck.
Corey Lajoie +25000 — It’s not uncommon for Lajoie to earn a top-5 finish in a plate race, but can he take the next step?
Ty Dillon +25000 — It’s not uncommon for Dillon to earn a top-10 finish in a plate race, but can he make the leap to victory lane?
Todd Gilliand +25000 — The rookie has been in enough truck plate races to know what he is doing. Front Row Motorsports will give him the car, he’s just got to keep it clean.
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Pole Winner — Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart
Alex Bowman +2000 to win pole — Hendrick always wins poles at Daytona and Talladega. With one race under their belt, it’s likely that the engineers have mastered the trimmed out setup necessary to grab the pole.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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