Tuesday is typically a big day for baseball, and July 5 is no exception. All 30 teams will be in action, so there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: Marlins ML (-140)
I don’t typically like to target favorites in MLB betting, but this line seems disrespectful to Sandy Alcantara. He’ll make the start for the Marlins on Tuesday, and he’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 1.95 ERA across 16 starts, and he has carried a massive workload. His 115 1/3 innings pitched is easily the top mark in the league, and he’s gone at least seven innings in 10 straight starts. That’s basically unheard of in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Angels will turn to Noah Syndergaard. Thor is still a decent pitcher — he owns a 3.86 ERA — but he’s not nearly the same intimidating presence he was in his prime. He’s averaged just 6.47 strikeouts per nine innings, so he relies on limiting the damage on balls in play. He does a good job at that, but it makes him a bit more vulnerable than in the past.
If laying -140 with the Marlins is too steep for you, consider taking Alcantara to get a win at +140. That bet is a bit riskier, but Alcantara pitches deep enough into games that he should almost always factor into the decision. He’s gotten the win in eight of 16 starts this year, so I think there’s value at +140.
The Pick: Cubs ML (+110)
The Cubs completely overhauled their roster over the past year, and they have unsurprisingly struggled during their rebuild. However, the team has started to show some signs of progress offensively. They rank fourth in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 14 days, and they’ve won five of their past eight games.
They lost the series opener vs. the Brewers in extra innings on Monday, but they’ll have an exploitable matchup against Jason Alexander on Tuesday. No, not the Jason Alexander from Seinfeld. Also not the Jason Alexander who was married to Britney Spears for like a week.
This Jason Alexander is an extremely mediocre pitcher who made his MLB debut this season at 29 years old. His 3.82 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s pitched to a 6.01 xERA across 30 2/3 innings. He’s managed a paltry 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings, and he ranks in the bottom five percentile in virtually every advanced pitching metric. Basically, it doesn’t get much better from a matchup perspective.
The Pick: Under 9.0 Runs (-115)
The headline for this matchup involves Max Scherzer’s return to the mound for the Mets. He’s been sidelined since late May with a strained oblique, and the Mets’ pitching staff has struggled in his absence. Losing Scherzer would be a big blow for any rotation, let alone one already without Jacob deGrom.
With Scherzer back in the fold, the nine-run total in this contest feels a bit high. He’s been as good as ever when healthy this season, pitching to a 2.54 ERA across eight starts. He should be able to keep the Reds’ offense at bay.
The bigger question involves the Mets’ offense. They erupted for seven runs Monday, and the Reds’ pitching staff is an abomination. They’re one of the only teams in league history with a rotation ERA and a bullpen ERA both above 5.00.
However, Monday’s performance stands out as an outlier. The Mets’ offense has struggled mightily of late, scoring four runs or fewer in each of their previous six games. They rank merely 21st in wRC+ against left-handers over the past 14 days, and they’ll be facing a southpaw in Nick Lodolo. He will be making just his third start of the year following a stint on the 60-day IL, but Lodolo has an excellent pedigree. He was the No. 7 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, and he entered the year as the No. 56 prospect in baseball, per FanGraphs.
Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with under 9.0 runs in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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