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MLB Picks for July 6: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for July 6.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

Rangers -110
Spenser Watkins over 2.5 earned runs -120

As much as Spenser Watkins has thrown well for the Orioles since his return to the rotation, the right-hander is still giving up a lot of fly balls. That’s a recipe for disaster against a team that’s making a lot of hard contact against right-handed pitching. Not only are the Rangers sixth in hard-contact rate against righties since mid-June, they’ve also only posted a 35.6% ground-ball rate against right-handers during that span. When it comes to the Watkins prop, Texas has scratched across three-plus runs against six of the last eight starters they’ve faced.

As for the other half of the moneyline play, Glenn Otto hasn’t exactly been lights out of late. While Baltimore’s offense has been clicking this series, they’ve been a bottom-10 team against righties since mid-June when you look at wOBA and wRC+. Also, Rangers relievers haven’t given up a run in Otto’s last three starts.

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Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

Astros over 4.5 runs -130

Houston has scored seven-plus runs in four of the last five games. They’ve been one of the toughest teams on right-handed pitching all season, and things have only ramped up for them since mid-June. Houston leads baseball in ISO and is second in wOBA against right-handed pitching since June 15. Now they get a crack at a right-hander who’s given up five-plus runs in two of his last four starts.

Moreover, Brad Keller’s last four outings have come against lineups that don’t hit righties well. Oakland (twice), Detroit and Baltimore. It’s quite a big jump to go from those teams to Houston — who has all these impressive numbers yet only has a .257 BABIP against right-handed pitching since mid-June.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases -105

Alvarez is rolling and he’s facing a less-than-stellar right-handed pitcher. What more needs to be said?

Houston’s big bat has ridiculous numbers against right-handed pitchers since mid-June: .537 ISO, .536 wOBA, 26.7% line-drive rate and 46.7% fly-ball rate. Keller has given up just as many extra-base hits to lefties as righties since mid-June, but left-handed hitters have had almost 20 fewer plate appearances against the KC right-hander during that span. Also, lefties posted a 25% line-drive rate against Keller during the aforementioned time frame.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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