We are officially past the halfway point of the MLB regular season and while I didn’t close out June with all that many winners, we’re still standing at a respectable 37-31 on article plays in 2022. Let’s get off to a good start in July on a surprisingly robust Thursday slate.
Here’s three bets that I’m looking into tonight.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Woof. This pitching matchup is hilariously awful, but I think once you dig into the statistics, it becomes clear that Austin Gomber and the Rockies have the slight advantage. Gomber’s been bad in 2022, pitching to a 6.53 ERA across 15 appearances; however, thanks to a totally unstable 58.6% strand rate, Gomber’s definitely due for some normalization in the near future — especially on the road. To wit, the left-hander’s 6.42 ERA within the split completely dwarfs his far more respectable 3.94 FIP. As for Dallas Keuchel, he’s rocking an 8.27 ERA for the season after allowing 10 earned runs in his first 9.1 innings with the Diamondbacks. There’s a legitimate chance this is his last start at the MLB level for some time.
Still, the biggest differentiating factor between these two teams is their success against LHPs. Colorado enters Thursday leading baseball in batting average (.295), OPS (.810) and wOBA (.353) versus southpaws. On the other side of the spectrum, Arizona’s 85 wRC+ within the split is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. So, if this does turn into a shootout, it’s more than fair to assume the Diamondbacks don’t have the horses to keep up on the scoreboard.
I probably don’t need to continue to drill the struggles of Dallas Keuchel into the ground, but here are the stats from the last four starts the 34-year-old has made: 12.91 ERA and 2.35 WHIP in 15.1 innings. In fact, Keuchel’s surrendered six earned runs in three of his last four appearances. Yes, we’re putting our trust into the Rockies to produce away from Coors Field, but that’s how little faith I have in Keuchel at this point in his career.
Remember the Logan Webb from last season? The one that was nearly unhittable and struck out almost every person in sight during the playoffs? Well, that guy has been back for the last couple months. After an odd start to the season — Webb managed just a 16.2% strikeout rate over his first seven outings — the tide has turned since May 18. Across his last nine appearances, Webb’s averaged 9.27 strikeouts per nine with a 25.9% strikeout rate that looks a lot more like what we saw in 2021. He’s also registered at least six strikeouts in seven of those nine starts, utilizing a chase rate that sits in the 85th percentile of qualified pitchers.
Plus, with the Padres scuffling at the plate, Webb might not even need to be all that efficient in generating swings and misses. Over the past two weeks, San Diego owns the National League’s worst marks in both ISO (.103) and wRC+ (74), meaning Webb should be able to work deep into this contest. That’s great news, as the right-hander has averaged 7.2 strikeouts the last six times he’s worked at least six innings.
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