Only four remain. After a brief hiatus, I’m back to break down the best bets for Friday’s Wimbledon semifinals action on the men’s side. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are still in the mix as many expected, but they’ll be facing off against Cam Norrie and Nick Kyrgios. In today’s article, I’ll highlight a few bets I see the most value in on DraftKings Sportsbook for these two matches.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Cam Norrie
Novak Djokovic Under 19 Total Games Won (+105)
This is the first of a few props in Djokovic’s favor that I like for this match. While Novak was taken to five sets by Jannik Sinner, it feels like he could easily advance to the final in straight sets over Norrie.
If you expect Djokovic to wrap things up quickly, betting on him to win less than 19 total games makes sense.
A couple of props that are similar to this on DraftKings Sportsbook are Under 30.5 Total Games (+100) and Cam Norrie Under 12.5 Total Games Won (-125). If you believe that Djokovic will win in straight sets, all of these make sense.
If you’re looking for a little bit of insurance, there’s also value in taking Djokovic to win by an exact set score of 3:1 at +275. I would be shocked if Novak drops more than one set on Friday, as he can taste a fourth-straight Wimbledon title at this point.
Nick Kyrgios vs. Rafael Nadal
Under 41.5 Total Games (-105)
Editor’s Note: Rafael Nadal (abdominal) has withdrawn from Wimbledon.
There’s a reason Kyrgios is pretty heavily favored (-175) — at least for his standards — entering this match, as Nadal might not even be able to play.
During Rafa’s incredibly entertaining five-setter against Taylor Fritz, the all-time men’s Grand Slams leader was clearly dealing with something. While many assumed it was Nadal’s foot, which has notoriously given him problems as of late, it was revealed to be a seven millimeter tear in his abdomen.
This injury almost forced Rafa to retire, but he battled through the pain and beat Fritz. Now, the 36-year-old is noncommittal about whether he’ll even be able to play in the semifinal against Kyrgios.
This is an obvious opportunity to take Nadal ML at +140, as it’s rare to see Rafa enter a match as the underdog unless it’s against Djokovic. However, I’m not convinced his body will hold up, and if it does he still won’t play his best tennis.
As a result, betting on this match to go under 41.5 total games makes all the sense in the world. Even if Nadal makes it through the entire contest, neither he nor Kyrgios want to play more than four sets. While the level of play will be entertaining, this match should wrap up relatively quickly.
Nick Kyrgios
Winner (+400)
Bonus bet!
The ship has sailed to bet on Djokovic to win this tournament. However, I still see value in taking Kyrgios to defeat him in the final (assuming he makes it there). Kyrgios actually has a 2-0 career head-to-head record against the Djoker.
I broke down this bet more on The Sweat Thursday morning. Watch here:
Is there value in taking someone not named Novak Djokovic to win the #Wimbledon final on @DKSportsbook?@EmersonLotzia and I discuss pic.twitter.com/FtdWSZf5XI
— Jeff Pratt (@ByJeffPratt) July 7, 2022
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