Monday's slate is on the smaller side, with just nine contests to choose from. That said, that still gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: Under 9.0 runs (-110)
The Mariners travel to New York to start a series vs. the Yankees on Monday, which could have massive playoff implications. The Mariners are currently 55-48, putting them in the thick of a loaded Wild Card race. They currently own the second Wild Card spot (out of three), but they own slim leads over the Rays, Guardians, White Sox, Orioles and Red Sox. In other words, every game is going to be important for each AL squad down the stretch.
This matchup is expected to be higher scoring, with the total currently set at nine runs. That seems too high. The Mariners will turn to Marco Gonzales, who has been effective at limiting runs. He owns a 3.66 ERA, and while his xERA suggests some regression moving forward, that isn’t exactly a guarantee. Gonzales routinely out-pitches his peripherals, posting a better ERA than xERA every year since 2018. Part of that stems from his ability to limit hard contact, ranking in the 62nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
The Yankees will turn to Domingo German, and he hasn’t pitched enough this season to draw any conclusions. His two starts have also come against the Mets and Astros, who possess two of the best offenses in baseball. Still, he managed to limit the Mets to two earned runs across 4 2/3 innings in his last outing.
Overall, I’m willing to take the under on two undervalued pitchers.
The Pick: Rockies ML (+175)
If you’re looking to roll the dice on a large underdog, the Rockies seem like your best bet. They’re garnering plenty of sharp support vs. the Padres, racking up a staggering 94% of the moneyline dollars on just 26% of the bets. That differential will likely even out as the day progresses, but the sharps clearly have interest in the Rockies.
They will turn to Antonio Senzatela, whose numbers on the surface are not very impressive. He owns a dreadful 6.57 ERA outside of Coors Field, but that number is inflated by a .412 BABIP. He actually owns a 3.61 xFIP when pitching on the road this season, so he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball.
The Padres will hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, who has been the opposite of Senzatela this season. His home ERA of 3.54 is solid, but his 4.84 FIP suggests he’s been significantly lucky when pitching at home.
The Padres are clearly the better team, but I’m not sure they deserve to be favored by as much as they currently are. I’ll take my chances with the Rockies in this spot.
The Pick: Giants ML (+120)
The Giants were the biggest surprise in baseball last season, emerging from complete afterthoughts to win 107 games. Unfortunately, they’ve crashed back to reality in 2022. They are a whopping 17.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and they’re also four games out of a Wild Card spot. Recent reports suggest the Giants could emerge as sellers before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
However, they will have Logan Webb on the mound on Tuesday, and he gives the Giants a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Webb got off to a slow start this year, but he’s still posted an excellent 2.91 ERA. That includes a 2.08 ERA in June and a 2.58 ERA in July, so he’s gotten better as the year has progressed.
Facing the Dodgers is no easy task, but Webb limited them to just one earned run over six innings in his only start vs. L.A. this season. He’s talented enough to do it again, especially in a pitcher-friendly venue like Oracle Park.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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