The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead slate locks at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
1. Kyle Larson ($10,800) — Throw out the 2021 Homestead race, not that his fourth-place finish was bad, but because the Next Gen car is more aggressive than the 550 package car that raced at Homestead from 2019 to 2021. This is rim riders season and Larson is one of the best.
2. Tyler Reddick ($10,800) — Will RCR beg Reddick to dial it back? Even if he listened, he can’t dial it back. Reddick only knows running the wall at Homestead. He’s not capable of running any less than 100% and on the wall..
3. Kyle Busch ($10,000) — The fast groove along the wall at Homestead can be overstated. Busch is not an elite rim rider, but in five Homestead races from 2015 to 2019, Busch scored the second-most fantasy points four times.
4. Martin Truex Jr ($9,400) — In the last six Homestead races, Truex has scored the most fantasy points, third-most points three times and fourth-most once. Also, the Toyotas have been pretty strong this season and Truex is one of the JGR drivers racing only to win.
5. Kevin Harvick ($8,800) — This race is not always won against the wall. Many rim riders have suffered a DNF at Homestead. Harvick is a bottom feeder and he’s been just fine at Homestead. He has a top-5 finish in seven of the last eight Homestead races.
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6. William Byron ($9,200) — He is the reigning Homestead champion and he’s been exceptional at the intermediate tracks of late. Track history is more significant at Homestead, but not for the 2019 through 2021 races (550 package).
7. Denny Hamlin ($10,600) — Darlington is a track that favors aggressive drivers. In 2021 and 2022 it was a low-downforce track. Hamlin won the 2021 Southern 500 and finished second this season. Homestead is an aggressive track with a fast lane up against the wall just like Darlington.
8. Chase Elliott ($10,400) — Homestead does not seem like it would be one of Elliott’s best tracks. However, he has a top-10 finish in four of his six Homestead races and a top-5 in three. He finished seventh or better in his three low-downforce races at Homestead.
9. Joey Logano ($9,800) — Go through the low-downforce check boxes. Logano won at Darlington in the spring and he won the last low-downforce race at Homestead in 2018.
10. Ross Chastain ($9,600) — Track history is a great metric when a driver has actual track history. Unfortunately, Chastain barely has any, but that does say something. Not only does Chastain lack the experience of a deep Cup Series playoff run, but he has very little experience at Homestead in competitive equipment.
11. Noah Gragson ($8,100) — It is hard to not get excited about the career of Noah Gragson. He took a step forward in 2020, a big step in 2021 and a massive leap in 2022. Homestead might be his favorite track and he tested at Homestead weeks ago.
12. Ryan Blaney ($10,200) — The intermediate tracks with fast lanes up next to the wall have not been kind to Blaney. He has always struggled at Darlington and his average finish at Homestead is 19th,
13. Christopher Bell ($9,000) — Although Bell is a legendary dirt track racer and accustomed to running the cushion, Bell does not like to run the wall. This became evident when he lost the 2018 and 2019 Xfinity Series Championship to Tyler Reddick.
14. John Hunter Nemechek ($6,100) — Bubba Wallace got suspended, so JHN will take over the driving duties of the No. 45 23XI Toyota. Nemechek has talent but he lacks experience in the Next Gen car. However, if he can wrap his head around it quickly in practice, then this is a steal. This is a race-winning car that was priced around $9,000 last week.
15. Daniel Suarez ($8,300) — Over the last four intermediate track races (Darlington, Kansas, Texas and Las Vegas), Suarez ranks No. 8 in Dietrich Data Score (a statistic that comprehensively synthesizes each lap of a driver’s race).
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