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Fantasy Football Picks: Packers vs. Bills DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Pearce Dietrich gives his top DraftKings NFL Showdown picks for Sunday Night Football.

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The Week 8 Sunday Night Football contest features a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills.

Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (GB vs BUF)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Josh Allen (CP $18,300)

Find the money. Don’t get cute. Don’t claim it’s a game theory play. That is just an excuse for not wanting to research and risk tertiary options. The build is tough, but scrimping here will bury your lineup on Sunday night. Value at Captain sounds nice, but you get what you pay for — and you pay for what you get.

Allen’s passing yards rank in the top 5 and he has thrown the second-most TD passes this season. His 12.5% pressure rate is the lowest in the NFL. This allows him to spend an eternity in the pocket (2.3 seconds), and when nothing opens up, he scrambles at the third-highest rate. This has led to 257 rushing yards and two rushing TDs. He will be the MVP by season’s end. Why pass on the MVP in a showdown contest?


FLEX Plays

Stefon Diggs ($11,800)

This is a little trickier. Allen and Diggs are a dynamic duo but their salaries leave nothing left over. Some DFS players are going to find an easy way out. They will tell themselves that Green Bay’s defense is too good to pay for both of these stars. Allen and Diggs cannot work in the optimal lineup because they can not replicate their typical productivity against a pass defense that ranks 2nd in Passing Yards, 5th in Passing TDs. 1st in Depth of Target, 3rd in Air Yards and 5th in Yards After the Catch. The Packers also blitz at the third-highest rate and get the fourth-most pressure on quarterbacks. DFS players will also point out that Jaire Alexander is an elite cornerback. The problem with that logic is that Alexander is not shadowing WR1s this season and WR1s are putting up solid numbers against Green Bay. Furthermore, Pro Football Focus does not believe that Alexander will even matchup on Diggs. They have Alexander on Gabe Davis. Last but not least, Diggs is not just a WR1 he is the No. 1 WR1 in the NFL according to PFF.

Samori Toure ($600)/Amari Rodgers ($3,000)

The Packers’ offense looks terrible. They lost Davante Adams in the offseason. Their wide receiver corps is inexperienced, old and has not played together because they’ve suffered through injuries since the preseason. On top of that, and often overlooked, the Packers lost their offensive coordinator, too. That last point might be the most significant. During the Packers’ three-game losing streak, they’re averaging 17.3 rush attempts per game — the lowest in the NFL. Running more would help kickstart this offense, but this likely won’t be the week. Green Bay has shown the propensity to pass and they’re likely to find themselves in a shoot out at best, but more likely playing catchup to the Bills and airing the ball out with indifference to the run.

Samori Toure and Amari Rodgers split the reps in the three receiver sets last week when Allen Lazard injured his shoulder. It is unlikely that Lazard will be able to play on Sunday night and it’s just as unlikely that the Packers will risk losing another receiver by starting him in a game where they are 11.5-point dogs. Toure and Rodgers are nothing to get excited about, but salary savings are necessary. Both are cheap and the Packers operate a pass-heavy offense. The volume will only increase in a game where they are playing from behind. When the Packers are trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter, Toure and Rodgers could get some freebie catches against backups playing prevent.


Fades

Romeo Doubs ($4,000)

There are a lot of candidates for this slot. Aaron Rodgers could even be considered against a strong defense. However, it is too risky to suggest a fade of an elite QB on a showdown slate regardless of the opposing defense. It is not risky to suggest that Doubs is a bad play. Doubs is in a bad place. He’s in Aaron Rodgers’ doghouse. Doubs dropped multiple passes last week, but worst of all, he ran the wrong way on what would have been a game-changing 60-yard TD pass. In an interview this week, Rodgers stated that players that make too many mental mistakes shouldn’t play. He said 20 percent of the offensive plays featured mental mistakes and the Packers need to start cutting reps. When he says players, he means Doubs. And if the coaching staff unwisely ignores Rodgers’ request — or disobeys his order depending on your opinion of Rodgers — and Doubs remains on the field, Rodgers simply wont pass him the ball. Can you blame him? Rodgers can’t trust Doubs. Why even look his way? Unless Doubs sends Rodgers an edible arrangement and the two kiss and make up, then Doubs is an easy fade. He’s in the dog house and he’s facing a tough matchup. Why pay more for this receiver when the cheap Packers wide receivers have the same upside?


THE OUTCOME

The Packers could win. Stranger things have happened. The Bills suffered a couple surprising losses last season. The Tennessee loss was a little bit of a surprise, as was the Colts loss. The Jaguars loss was an absolute shocker. The first two are interesting because in both losses the Bills were humiliated by opposing running backs. The Packers have the backs to replicate this attack, but they’re not running the ball and their offensive line is a bit of a mess. Simply put, the Bills are not losing at home against the struggling Packers. There is no need to over analyze this.

Final Score: Buffalo , Green Bay

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (GB vs BUF)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.