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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Astros vs. Phillies DraftKings MLB DFS Showdown Strategy for November 1

Garion Thorne preps you for Game 3 of the World Series between the Phillies and the Padres with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Let’s try this again, shall we? After MLB postponed Game 3 on Monday evening, the World Series should be back in action on Tuesday with the Houston Astros visiting the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the extra day of rest has brought changes to the expected pitching matchup, as Ranger Suarez ($10,600) will now take the mound for the hometown squad.

Dry off and let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: MLB Showdown $200K Game 3 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs PHI)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Lance McCullers Jr. ($17,100 CP) - It’s rare that an asset has both the highest floor and the highest ceiling on a given slate, but that’s the exact scenario we find McCullers in on Tuesday. The 29-year-old has looked dominant through his first two postseason appearances, posting a 1.84 FIP and a 27.7% strikeout rate across 11.0 innings. McCullers was also about as good down the stretch of the regular season as you could possibility anticipate from someone coming off a lengthy IL stint, registering a 2.27 ERA over eight starts. At the end of the day, McCullers viability in Game 3 has a lot to do with his juxtaposition to Suarez. McCullers has the more obvious strikeout upside. McCullers has the better matchup. Ergo, McCullers is the one you want at 1.5x value.

Yordan Alvarez ($14,700 CP) - The one knock on McCullers? He’s going to be super chalky. If that’s a concern, may I suggest Alvarez? There’s a chance some people might shy away from the slugger in a left-on-left matchup, particularly in the Captain’s slot. I think that would be a mistake. Yes, Suarez has been dynamite versus LHBs in 2022, holding opponents to a .237 wOBA, but Alvarez isn’t your average left-handed hitter. In 192 regular season plate appearances within the split, the 25-year-old slashed .321/.411/.586 with a 183 wRC+. On a team with Alex Bregman ($9,200) and Jose Altuve ($9,000), it was Alvarez that led the Astros with a jaw-dropping .447 xwOBA when facing southpaws. Also, how many times do we realistically think Rob Thomson lets Suarez go through the order? Even if Alvarez doesn’t tag the lefty, he should get a few cracks at the Phillies’ bullpen.


UTIL Plays

Chas McCormick ($6,600) - There are several reasons to love McCormick at this price, starting with the fact he’s been red-hot across the past few weeks. In his 31 plate appearances in the playoffs, the outfielder is hitting .280 with a .401 wOBA and a 167 wRC+. That’s a small sample, yet it’s certainly nice to see. However, if you require a pool of data that’s just a little bit bigger, let’s dive into McCormick’s numbers against LHPs during the regular season. In 115 PAs, the former 21st-round pick slashed .340/.409/.563 with a .223 ISO and a .972 OPS. Truly every part of Houston’s lineup is dangerous.

Brandon Marsh ($4,800) - I would assume the Phillies aren’t going to change the lineup they already put out for Game 3, and if that’s the case, we know Marsh will be hitting ninth. That’s not the most ideal slot in the order for DFS, but let’s not kid ourselves — Marsh’s value is mostly to do with his minuscule price tag. Still, that’s not to suggest that the outfielder has zero upside. After being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, Marsh slashed .312/.348/.505 with a 137 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He’s also faced McCullers more than anyone not named Jean Segura ($7,600) on the Phillies’ roster thanks to his time in the AL West. He has three hits and .400 OBP in 10 plate appearances. Maybe some experience will pay dividends.


Fades

Kyle Schwarber ($9,600) - This just doesn’t feel like the right spot to pay up for Schwarber. While the veteran has expanded his fantasy horizons with three stolen bases in the playoffs, McCullers doesn’t profile like an amazing matchup for the National League home run king. First and foremost, the RHP was particularly stingy with LHBs during the regular season, holding the 96 he faced to a .165 average with a .253 slugging percentage. Honestly, most of the “damage” lefties did against McCullers were walks — not exactly what owners are looking for in DFS. McCullers also leans heavily on his curveball when squaring off with a left-handed batter. In fact, he threw the pitch in 48.7% of counts within the split in 2022. Meanwhile, Schwarber managed only a .192 average and a .167 ISO off curves this season.


THE OUTCOME

It’s really difficult to not like the Astros when they’re going up against a left-handed opponent. Houston is 40-11 in its last 51 games when facing a southpaw, while the team is also 21-6 the last 27 times its seen an LHP on the road. Remember, the Astros’ 124 wRC+ within the split was the second-best mark in all of baseball — they can put up some crooked numbers in a hurry.

Final Score: Houston 6, Philadelphia 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: MLB Showdown $200K Game 3 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs PHI)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.