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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets for Padres vs. Mets Showdown on October 9

Zach Thompson gives his top MLB lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Padres and Mets.

National League Wild Card Series: San Diego Padres v. New York Mets Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Of the four Wild Card series this weekend, only one will need a decisive Game 3 on Sunday. After the San Diego Padres homered four times off Max Scherzer on Friday to steal Game 1, the New York Mets bounced back behind Jacob deGrom to take Game 2, setting up Sunday night’s winner-take-all scenario. The Dodgers await the winner in the NLDS, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium.

Since it’s the only game on the schedule for the day, it’s a nice Showdown slate for Sunday Night Baseball. As you get your lineups assembled for the great DraftKings contests, check out some of my favorite options highlighted below.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (SD vs NYM)


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Captain’s Picks

Joe Musgrove ($16,200) – The starting pitching matchup should be a good one between Musgrove and Chris Bassitt ($15,600 CP) although neither will likely have a long leash since neither team can afford to fall far behind. Of the two, I’m giving the edge to Musgrove, who has playoff experience (out of the bullpen) with the Astros from back in 2017. He had a career-low 2.93 ERA in his 30 starts this year with a 3.59 FIP and 9.15 K/9. Musgrove has been in exceptional recent form, allowing just one run on 15 hits over his past four starts while striking out 27 in 22 innings. Musgrove started the second half of the season with a rough patch which included a loss at New York, but he has rebounded nicely and looked sharp lately, so I expect a big start from him on this big stage Sunday night.

Pete Alonso ($14,100) – Even though I think Musgrove is the better starting pitcher to build around, I’m going with the Polar Bear as my top big bat to target. Alonso homered in Game 2 and had 20 DKFP, and he has now hit in seven straight games dating back to the regular season and has gone 15-for-42 (.357) over his 12 most recent games with nine walks, two doubles, four homers and 11 RBI to average 11.9 DKFP per contest over that stretch. His splits are favorable at home and against right-handed pitching, setting him up for success. If you’re looking to build around a hitter with the uncertainty of how deep the SP will go, Alonso’s power potential and flair for the dramatic make him my top choice.

Flex Plays

Francisco Lindor ($8,800) – Lindor also homered in the Mets’ Game 2 victory and went 2-for-4 with 21 DKFP after posting seven DKFP in Game 1 when he was hit by a pitch and stole a base. Lindor has gone 6-for-17 with a pair of home runs against Musgrove in the past, so if you’re a BvP fan, he’s an especially good target. I love using Lindor because he brings both power and speed upside, giving him a high ceiling and a high floor. He’s also a proven playoff performer with a .345 wOBA in his 27 career postseason contests.

Jurickson Profar ($7,200) – I’m actually a fan of Bassitt, so this isn’t meant to be a slam on him—I think this matchup does not set up well for him. Bassitt gave up 11 of his 19 home runs allowed this year to lefties, who posted a .325 wOBA against him (compared to righties who had just a .263 wOBA). Profar will likely lead off at the top of the Padres’ lineup which features six lefties and switch-hitters including four of the top five in the order.

Profar is a great play from the leadoff spot after posting a solid season after stepping into the leadoff spot in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s absence. Profar hit .243 with 15 homers and a .320 wOBA. He was red-hot down the stretch going 16-for-48 (.333) in his final 12 regular season games with three doubles, a home run and a .363 wOBA. He carried over that momentum and hit a huge home run in Game 1 on his way to 25 DKFP and had seven DKFP in his team’s Game 2 loss. I’m a little surprised he’s priced so lowly given his upside and premium lineup spot.

Value Plays

Daniel Vogelbach ($6,800) – Vogelbach came off the bench in Game 2 against a lefty, but he should return to the lineup against Musgrove on Sunday night. After joining the Mets in a midseason trade, Vogelbach hit .255 with six home runs in 55 games with a .367 wOBA and 144 wRC+. The advanced metrics are favorable to the big lefty since he has good plate discipline and excellent power potential.

Trent Grisham ($4,600) – Grisham homered in each of the first two games of this series, producing 14 and 22 DKFP, and he should get another start as the Mets roll out a third straight right-handed starter. Although he slid into a platoon and often sat against lefties, Grisham seems to have found his stride at the plate, hitting in five straight games after a woeful 0-for-23 stretch in the middle of September. He does bring some speed potential as well, although the Padres as a team don’t run a ton.

Fades

Manny Machado ($9,800) – Machado has been a regular in my picks this season, so it hurts to have him in my fades for this huge game, but he hasn’t looked his best lately. He did homer in Game 1, but that is his only hit so far while going 1-for-8 with a walk and four strikeouts. He hit only .264 during the final month of the regular season although his eight home runs still helped him to a .360 wOBA. Machado obviously has a high ceiling, but given Bassitt’s splits mentioned above, I prefer going with Juan Soto ($9,600), Profar and the Mets’ hitters in this price range for this showdown contest.

The Outcome

First of all, the easy winners to pick here are all baseball fans, who get a great win-to-advance matchup in the first weekend of the MLB playoffs between two teams with plenty of stars and sizzle. Secondly, the Dodgers are really probably the biggest winners since both teams have to go “all in” to win this game and will also have used all three of their best SP just to reach L.A., where the 111-win juggernaut has been enjoying the weekend off.

The game is sure to contain plenty of drama, and I think it’ll be close late. The Mets’ bullpen was slightly better during the regular season, but I do think Musgrove sets up better than Bassitt to hand the lead to the bullpen. Ultimately, it’s a coin-flip game, but I’ll go with the home team and say the Mets rally after the starting pitchers leave to advance in dramatic fashion. Hopefully, it’s an instant classic that comes to signify how good this new playoff format can be.

Final Score: New York Mets 4, San Diego Padres 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (SD vs NYM)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.