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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 10 2022 Top High-Upside DFS Contrarian Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate for Week 10. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Stacks

Game Stack: Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) — Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) — Amari Cooper ($6,500)

The Browns and Dolphins both rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA and feature some elite WR options, making this a very intriguing game to stack. While the rushing upside of Jacoby Brissett ($5,400) makes him an interesting pay down target after the Dolphins allowed Justin Fields ($6,500) to rush for 178 yards last week, going with the more reliable fantasy producer in Tua Tagovailoa as our starting point makes sense. Tagovailoa has averaged 29.5 DKFP in his last two starts with a mouthwatering 10.4 yards per attempt. Cleveland’s defensive front is a worry after they smashed up Joe Burrow in their last start, but Miami is great at getting the ball out quick have allowed the 10th-fewest sacks in the league.

At the WR position is where we can start to differentiate. While paying up for the pure upside of Tyreek Hill ($9,100) is ideal, it’s Waddle in the $7K range who rates out as the better pure tournament target to pair with Tagovailoa. Waddle’s proven at multiple points this year that his upside in this offense is every bit as big as Hill’s, and while he’s being outproduced by Hill in raw targets, he’s also seen three more red zone looks than Hill and maintains a 6-to-3 touchdown advantage over his teammate.

Fading Hill obviously takes some gumption, but beyond salary savings and differentiation, it leaves us more room for our comeback play in Amari Cooper. Miami’s secondary has been a sneaky good target for opposing WRs this year, yielding the 10th-most DKFP per game to the position and ranking out eighth-worst in yards per pass attempt. The Dolphins don’t get a ton of pressure (22nd in sacks per game) and that should allow more downfield targets for Cooper, who has maintained an elite team target share of 26% this season and averaged 25.0 yards per catch over his last two outings.


Quarterback

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints ($5,100)

Kenny Pickett has run a gauntlet of some of toughest defenses in the NFL since taking over as starter, including the Jets, Eagles and Bills. Luckily, the Steelers’ QB gets somewhat of a reprieve in Week 10. New Orleans’ defensive front isn’t what it used to be and ranks league-average this year in sacks per game and pressure rate. The Saints also just allowed 81 yards rushing to Lamar Jackson and have given up over 70 yards rushing to an opposing QB twice this year.

Pickett has yet to put together a complete game or even above-average NFL stats to this point, but he has averaged 43.5 pass attempts — and 22.5 rushing yards — over his three starts, suggesting that a breakout game isn’t far away. Drafting at quarterback this week is tough, with injuries to multiple elite QBs and some less than ideal matchups on the board. Pickett offers high upside with a dual threat QB who is attached to a couple elite WRs. He’ll also carry extremely low ownership in big GPPs. He’s a solid pay down option at position where most will be paying up for security.


Running Back

Top End: Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs ($7,100)

The Jaguars have committed to the Etienne breakout season, giving the second-year running back 52 carries over the last two weeks and playing him on over 80% of the snaps over their last three games. While the wins haven’t piled up for the Jags, Etienne has made Jacksonville competitive in every game since his increase in volume and, for that reason alone, he should be in a great spot again in Week 10. Kansas City ranks just 17th in run defense DVOA and have been a great fantasy matchup for opposing RBs, allowing 60 receptions (most in the league) and the sixth-most DKFP per game. Etienne’s current workload and output is worthy of a stud salary, so while we’re still getting him in the low $7K range, buying in is more than recommended.

Value: Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans at New York Giants ($6,300)

Pierce remains the ultimate contrarian play, as he’ll be lined up against what could be the slate chalk on the other side of the ball in Saquon Barkley ($8,600). Pierce produced in a similar spot his last time out, putting up 137 yards on 27 carries against the Eagles in Week 9, but couldn’t find the end zone to turn the night into a massive game for fantasy owners. However, the matchup against New York is far more appealing as the Giants have consistently been one of the worst defenses against the run this year, allowing 5.5 yards per rush — second-worst in the league. With the Giants favored and Houston featuring a poor rush defense themselves, Pierce likely will go overlooked for DFS purposes, and his low $6K salary makes him an ideal pivot play.


Wide Receiver

Top End: Chris Olave New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,800)

The Olave breakout game feels like it’s just over the horizon. The rookie now ranks second in air yards behind only the aforementioned Hill, and he’s averaged 10 targets per game over his last three outings. Olave’s fantasy output has undoubtedly been held back by a being attached to a low-ceiling quarterback in Andy Dalton ($5,500), but the matchup this week may allow the rookie to finally overcome that deficiency. The Steelers’ secondary has been destroyed on the regular by opposing WRs this year, as the team is allowing an astounding 15.2 yards per catch and the most DKFP per game to the position, as well. With New Orleans’ defense regressing and Steelers’ opponents averaging 37.1 pass attempts against them this year, Olave should have a great chance of hitting his true ceiling and paying off a still affordable salary.

Top Value: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)

Hardman (abdomen) is potentially going to get a questionable tag for this week’s game (he missed practice Wednesday), but it does sound like the issue is more maintenance related than anything. The third-year WR has vaulted into a more significant role of late and played the most snaps of any Chiefs’ WR in last week’s game versus the Titans. Jacksonville is another classic funnel-to-the-pass style of defense, as they rank above-average in defensive DVOA against the run, but sixth-worst in DVOA against the pass. Teams are also passing over 35 times per game against Jacksonville and they’ve allowed the third-most TDs to the WR position. Hardman’s burgeoning role and red zone usage — he leads all Chiefs WRs with 11 red zone targets — makes him the ideal target in this game, which should see Kansas City pass upwards of 40 times or more once again.


Tight End

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans ($3,400)

Dulcich may actually be the answer to the Denver Broncos “cooking” woes on offense. The TE has seen a big role right from the get-go in Denver and played a season high 80% of the snaps in his last outing against Jacksonville. Dulcich has been running routes on over 80% of his snaps played, as well, and has now averaged an eye-opening 15.4 yards per reception in three games.

The sample size here may be small, but Dulcich has lived up to every bit the hype thus far as a big target over the middle who can dominate linebackers with his mobility and cornerbacks with his size. He gets a Titans defense this week whose secondary has been below average in coverage and particularly bad at covering TEs, allowing 11.6 yards per catch and the third-most DKFP per game to the position. With Denver coming off a bye, and Russell Wilson ($5,900) likely a step or two closer to full health, buying in on Dulcich while the price is still low seems like a great move.


Defense/Special Teams

Arizona Cardinals ($2,700) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams and Cardinals starting QBs are both questionable for this game. Matthew Stafford ($5,600; concussion) certainly seems more likely to be sidelined, though, as he entered the league’s concussion protocols on Wednesday, and will likely have little to no practice time this week, even if he does get cleared. Stafford has been a shell of himself this year, anyways, as he comes into this game averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt and has producing only eight touchdowns vs eight interceptions.

The Cardinals D/ST has been one of the most opportunistic units in the league over the last month, producing four TDs and averaging 11.5 DKFP over their last four games. They’ve actually been far better at getting pressure in road games, as well, averaging 2.8 sacks per game in four road starts. With John Wolford ($4,900) potentially under centre for Los Angeles this week — who produced 6.1 yards per attempt and a 231-0-1 line in his one NFL start from 2020 — Arizona looks like a solid value this week.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.