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Fantasy Football Picks: Commanders vs. Eagles DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Commanders and the Eagles with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

It’s very hard to complain about another Philadelphia Eagles game in primetime. The Eagles come into Monday’s festivities as the lone undefeated team in the NFL, sitting 8-0 through nine weeks. Has the schedule been overly difficult? No. But you can only play the opponents put in front of you. This week’s victim? The Washington Commanders.

Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (WAS vs PHI)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Jalen Hurts ($18,300 CP) - Hurts’ price tag keeps increasing, but I’m addicted to the dual-threat upside he brings to the table. Entering Week 10, Hurts is one of just three quarterbacks averaging at least 0.70 DKFP per drop back, joining Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The main reason for the pivot’s efficiency isn’t only his scrambling ability, but specifically when Hurts chooses to run. The Alabama product sits second in the league in red zone rushing attempts with 28. Second in the league. Not second in the league among QBs — second in the league overall. That’s directly led to six rushing touchdowns, which ranks first at his position. It’s probably also worth noting that when these teams last squared off in Week 3, Hurts threw for a season-high 340 yards. Add in three passing touchdowns, and you’re left with 30.6 DKFP. I don’t see why a repeat performance isn’t in store on Monday.

A.J. Brown ($15,900 CP) - For as often as Hurts calls his own number near the goal line, Brown isn’t too far behind in the pecking order. The wideout has seen a stunning 40.7% of the Eagles’ targets inside the 20 yard-line this season — the second-highest rate of any skill-position player in the NFL. This offense is a Russian nesting doll of high-leverage volume, as well. That 40.7% share is amazing in a vacuum, yet it’s even more incredible when you find yourself on a team that averages 3.8 red zone drives per contest. That’s how you score five touchdowns in a three-game span, as Brown has done dating back to Week 6. Brown’s also seen an overall target rate of at least 33% in two of those three games, while his air yards share for 2022 as a whole is a whopping 46%. He’s great and this is a sneaky-great matchup. Washington has surrendered the seventh-most DKFP per contest to opposing WRs, despite having faced the likes of the Bears, Titans, Packers, Colts and Jaguars. You know, rosters not exactly blessed with talent at wide receiver.


FLEX Plays

Antonio Gibson ($6,800) - I thought about Gibson as a Captain in this spot. That’s how optimistic I am about the Commanders’ back and his modest price point on Monday. The key thing to know in regards to Gibson’s Week 10 outlook is the absence of J.D. McKissic (neck). With McKissic sidelined in Week 9, Gibson logged a 57.8% snap share — his highest rate since all the way back in Week 1, when Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,400) was unavailable. More crucially, with no McKissic, Gibson is clearly Washington’s pass-catching option out of the backfield. Since Week 5, Gibson’s been targeted 22 times, turning those opportunities into 18 receptions and a pair of touchdowns. In a script that will more than likely see the Commanders playing from behind, Gibson could be looking at a massive target share once again.

Eagles D/ST ($6,400) - This just feels like a game where Philadelphia’s front seven causes some havoc. Not only does the Commanders’ offensive line come into this tilt in possession of the league’s seventh-worst adjusted sack rate (8.9%), but starters Andrew Norwell and Tyler Larsen are both questionable to suit up. I can not overstate how problematic it would be if either is unavailable. The Eagles are fourth in defensive adjusted sack rate (9.1%), and it seems that the team’s line has only become stronger with the recent addition of Robert Quinn. On top of that, Taylor Heinicke ($9,000) has proven to be quite turnover and sack prone in the 19 games he’s appeared since the beginning of 2021, tossing 18 picks and going down in the backfield 44 times. Heinicke could be in for a long night.


Fades

Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,400) - On the surface, you can see the potential of Robinson, as the RB has collected at least 15 touches in three of his last four games. However, as mentioned above, the rookie is simply not involved enough in Washington’s passing attack for consideration in this spot. While the Eagles have been uncharacteristically poor against the run — the team is surrendering 4.78 adjusted line yards per opponent attempt — it hasn’t been much of an issue this season. With teams often trailing Philadelphia, opposing offenses have managed a 37.2% rush rate, easily the lowest mark of all NFC teams. Not surprisingly, that’s also meant very few rushing touchdowns allowed by the Eagles. This sets up as a Gibson script. Robinson won’t be featured.


THE OUTCOME

I’m having a difficult time reading too much into Washington’s recent success. Ugly wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Indianapolis aren’t exactly a daunting task. That’s not to suggest that the Eagles haven’t had the benefit of a soft schedule, but ranking No. 1 in DVOA is pretty impressive stuff. Give me Philadelphia in a laugher.

Final Score: Philadelphia 31, Washington 14

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (WAS vs PHI)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.