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Fantasy Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Chargers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Pearce Dietrich gives his top DraftKings NFL Showdown picks for Sunday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The Week 11 Sunday Night Football contest features a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.

Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (KC vs LAC)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Patrick Mahomes (CP $17,100)

The Chiefs have not scored more than 27 points in three of their last four games. It’s extremely unfair to expect 27 or more points from an offense each week. In this case, it’s not. The Chiefs have set this bar with a league-leading 30 points per game. Despite the absence of monstrous totals on the scoreboard, the stat sheet still looks pretty good for Patrick Mahomes. He’s scored 30 DKFP or more in four of his last five games. He’s rushing and he’s passing. The KC offense has always run through Mahomes, and even more so now with a diversified pass attack and lackluster group of running backs.

The Chargers’ No. 29 rush defense should not be a problem for Kansas City’s rush attack. But anyone expecting Andy Reid to do what you think he should do, doesn’t know Andy Reid. Expect Reid to dial up plenty of pass plays on Sunday night. The Chiefs love to pass. They throw at the fourth-highest rate (64%). Yes, the Chargers can’t stop the run, but they can’t stop the pass either. The Chiefs can try to get their cadre of running backs involved or they can just do what they do — pass.

Beating Mahomes requires a pass rush. That’s why the Chargers acquired Khalil Mack in the offseason. Unfortunately, Joey Bosa is injured again and it shows. The Chargers are 28th in QB Hurry%, 20th in QB Knockdowns, 18th in Sacks and 27th in Pressure. Allowing an opposing quarterback time to pass is not a good idea. Granting that to Mahomes is game over.

FLEX Plays

Travis Kelce ($10,600)

Find the money for Mahomes and Kelce. The two are locked at the hip and both frequent Showdown Slate optimal lineups. Kelce has been a nightmare. He’s literally the boogeyman. When the sun sets, Kelce turns into a monster for night games. He caught four TDs against the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Two weeks ago on Sunday night, he caught 10 of 17 targets for 106 yards. In nine games, he’s grabbed 63 of 84 targets for 740 yards and eight touchdowns. He has over 80 yards receiving in five of his last six games. The one miss was a seven-reception game vs. the Raiders — where he also found the end zone four times. Get him in your lineup.

Tre’ McKitty ($2,200)

Obviously, Justin Herbert ($10,400), Austin Ekeler ($11,000) and Joshua Palmer ($7,200) are fine if you can afford them. There’s little point in writing about the three remaining Chargers weapons. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen questionable again this week, the offense is highly concentrated for the Chargers. What about the randos? There is a high probability of a rando getting a touchdown or making a few catches because the Chargers’ skill position players are all pretty much randos. When Joshua Palmer is the No. 1 receiver, you have a problemo.

We don’t care if the Chargers win. We just want a cheap run back. If KC blows out LA, then the KC stack hits and a pass catcher for the Chargers will come through in a game script that requires a heavy dose of passing from the Chargers in catch-up mode. Tre’ McKitty — whose name translates to Three Son of Baby Cats — played 74.1% of the snaps last week. He ran 29 routes (72.5%) and was targeted six times (once in the red zone — a wide-open drop that would have been a TD). The end result was three catches for 21 yards. That will work. And with Three Son of Baby Cats in your lineup, Herbert or Ekeler can easily slide in with the elite plays from Kansas City.

One last note about Three Son of Baby Cats, and not just because I like typing that, McKitty’s increased workload last week was due to a Gerald Everett groin injury. Everett has been limited in practice this week. If he starts, then McKitty has very little value.

Noah Gray ($3,000)

Kansas City has been featured in plenty of Showdown Slates this season. You should know the routine by now. To get to the stars, you have to pick a scrub. This is a bad idea in every other situation except for this one. The Chiefs run a diversified pass attack with a play caller that will scheme up anyone with a pulse. Winning this slate requires picking the right lotto Chief. Justin Watson ($1,400), Jody Fortson ($1,000) and Noah Gray are the slate breakers. They’ve done it before and will do it again. With the infusion of Kadarius Toney ($8,000), Watson seems like the least likely to score a TD. That leaves the tight ends. As mentioned before in previous Showdown Slate articles and DK’s The Sweat appearances, Gray profiles as the better tight end. At Duke in 2019, Gray’s 51 receptions were the third-most among tight ends in the NCAA. Over the last four weeks, Gray has been targeted nine times and Fortson four. Gray caught all nine passes including a touchdown last week against the Jaguars (10 DKFP). The week prior, he earned 7.5 DKFP against Tennessee. That’s good enough.


Fades

Kadarius Toney ($8,000)

Let everyone else chase Toney. His ownership will be a lot higher than it should be. Is he talented? He’s supposed to be. Toney was a first-round pick for the Giants in 2021, the 2021 Giants weren’t that smart — they all got fired. The 2022 Giants — very smart — traded Toney away for a third-round pick. Just think about that. He was a first-round pick, but now, for all intents and purposes, Toney is a third-round pick and should be treated as such. A third-round pick, that just joined a new team is not appealing. Especially a new team with wild schemes that spreads the ball out. Toney will be fine in the long run. In fact, he may be a star next season or even by the end of this season, but he’s not right now. He can hit on Sunday night, but he’s going to be way to popular among DFS players. Avoiding him could be the key strategy for seperating from the rest of the field.


THE OUTCOME

The Chiefs are touchdown favorites on the road. That says a lot. And that they are touchdown favorites on the road against a division rival, says even more. Whether it’s indicative of the Chiefs’ abilities or the Chargers’ health struggles, it doesn’t really matter. The Chiefs are the better team, and if this were in Kansas City, then they would be double-digit favorites. The Chargers need the Chiefs to collapse on Sunday night. Nothing points to this happening.

Final Score: Kansas City 31, Los Angeles 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (KC vs LAC)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.