Uno. Dos. Tres. Sadly, we only have three games on today’s slate, but there should be plenty of treys, as the third, fourth and 11th-ranked players in three-point attempts are playing tonight. Yipee! Now to bring the emotional level down faster than the net worth of SBF. The games don’t start until 10:00 p.m. ET.
Mr. Lombardi, how does that make you feel? “What the hell is going on out here?”
DraftKings Sportsbook has the SAS/SAC game with the highest total at 237.5, while the DET/LAC matchup is at a paltry 216.5. The BKN/POR contest is at 222 and has the tightest spread on the slate with the Trail Blazers favored by two points. The Kings are favored by seven points over the Spurs, while the Clippers are nine-point favorites over the Pistons. All home teams are favored tonight.
De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs ($9,000) – After a blistering start to the season, Fox has cooled off a bit. He was producing 40-to-50 DKFP on the regular, but that production has come down to the 30-to-40 DKFP range. That said, he put up 63.75 DKFP three games ago, so there’s always the ability to access a ceiling game.
The environment tonight should be a good one. The game has the highest total on the slate, as the teams are seventh and eighth in offensive pace while also being 26th and 29th in defensive rating.
In addition, the Spurs have boosted the FPPM to point guards by 3.61% on the season.
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets ($7,300) – Simons is appropriately priced. He’s been in the 31-to-38 DKFP range over the last five games and has scored at least 20 points in four of those contests. The usage rate is healthy in the mid-to-upper 20s. He probably won’t access a ceiling game since Damian Lillard ($10,000) is still the alpha, but both Lillard and Simons have, at the time of this writing, substantially lower projected ownership numbers compared to the other top options at the position.
Other Options - Paul George ($10.200), Damian Lillard ($10,000), Devin Vassell ($7,000), Jaden Ivey ($6,900)
John Wall, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons ($5,700) – Wall has looked spry and athletic out on the court. Unfortunately, his workload is being managed, as he’s not playing back-to-backs and is averaging 22.9 minutes per contest on the season. The playing time has ticked up a few minutes over the last five games, though, to 25.9.
Wall has scored at least 20 DKFP in every game but one and has exceeded 30 DKFP three times. The usage rate is a robust 28.4% when he’s on the court and Wall has exceeded his point expectations 80% of the time this season.
Other Options - Alec Burks ($4,500), Edmond Sumner ($4,000), Cam Thomas ($4,200), Terance Mann ($3,800)
Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers ($11,600) – Durant is averaging 1.41 DKFP per minute, the highest mark on the slate, and has the highest floor/ceiling combo. He’s scored at least 40 DKFP in every contest with two games above 60 DKFP and a high of 72.5 DKFP. The usage rate will likely be above 30% and he should play at or above the 35-minute mark.
Durant is the most expensive player on the slate, so decisions will have to be made, especially since the projected ownership is currently low.
Jerami Grant, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets ($7,600) – Grant has been nothing short of amazing over the last three games, putting up 54 DKFP, 53 DKFP and 44.5 DKFP, respectively. Prior to this stretch, he exceeded 40 DKFP only once and posted five games under 30 DKFP.
The shooting efficiency has been god-like: 56% from the field and 60% from downtown. Regression will happen, but that doesn’t mean it will happen tonight. Even if the hot streak ceases, he’s getting a ton of volume: 20, 22 and 15 field goal attempts with 8, 9, and 8 three-pointers.
There is risk for sure. One is the aforementioned efficiency regression. The other is foul trouble while guarding Durant. Decisions, decisions. This is why you get paid the big bucks.
Other Options - Keldon Johnson ($7,400), Marcus Morris Sr. ($6,300)
Norman Powell, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons ($4,200) – Powell is coming off a 9.5 DKFP performance in which he shot 2-of-10 from the field. That was against a Dallas team that is fifth in defensive rating. Now he goes up against a Pistons team that is dead-last in defensive rating.
Powell doesn’t start, but he will play somewhere in the mid-20s range. When he’s on the court, though, he garners a high usage rate, in the mid-to-high 20s, and isn’t shy about hucking and chucking. Over the last four games, he’s attempted 10, 10, 14 and 10 shots, respectively.
Other Options - Jeremy Sochan ($4,300), Keita Bates-Diop ($3,700)
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs ($9,400) – Sabonis had some difficulties early on, as he couldn’t get into the rhythm and was benched a few games due to defensive issues. All of those concerns have been eradicated. Over the last seven games, Sabonis has averaged 33.8 minutes and scored at least 40 DKFP in all but one contest. He’s also exceeded 50 DKFP three times within that span. In the one game he failed to put up 40 DKFP, Sabonis only played 28 minutes due to a blowout.
Sabonis averages 1.38 DKFP per minute and this game is the juiciest environment on the slate. In addition, the Spurs have boosted the FPPM to centers by 10.25%, the fourth-most generous mark in the league.
Other Options - Jakob Poeltl ($7,200)
Drew Eubanks, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets ($3,900) – With Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800; thigh) questionable, Eubanks could get the start. Even if he doesn’t, Portland seems to be utilizing caution with Nurkic, as he only played 15 minutes last game after returning from a three-game absence. Eubanks played 33 minutes in that contest and should be in line for at least 20 minutes. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Other Options - Charles Bassey ($4,400)
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