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Fantasy Football Picks: Titans vs. Chiefs DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Pearce Dietrich gives his top DraftKings NFL Showdown picks for Sunday Night Football.

The Week 8 Sunday Night Football contest features a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (TEN vs KC)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Patrick Mahomes (CP $18,000)

Tennessee has the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. This funnels fantasy points towards their opponents’ passing attack. The Titans are in the top 10 in limiting fantasy points to running backs. In limiting fantasy points through the air, the Titans rank 20th vs. quarterbacks, 22nd vs. wide receivers and 27th vs. receiving running backs. Naturally, Mahomes defaults to the best play in this showdown contest. Regardless of matchup, Mahomes typically defaults to the best play on this type of slate. He scores points through the air and with his feet, and the new Kansas City offense is a committee of catchers. The Chiefs spread the ball around, and this limits the upside of any one receiver. Mahomes sailed over 400 yards passing against San Francisco in his last game. Don’t overthink it.


FLEX Plays

Travis Kelce ($10,400)

Tennessee has not been torched by tight ends this season, but they do rank in the bottom third of the league in TE Defense DVOA. Also, Kelce isn’t really a tight end. He’s a massive receiver that lines up out wide, on the line and in the slot. In seven games, he’s grabbed 47 of 60 targets for 553 yards and seven touchdowns. He meets the volume requirements, but more importantly, checks the box for TDs. Showdown slates are won by picking the players that find the end zone. Four of his seven TDs came in one game, but that’s not a reason to dismiss Kelce. If anything, it’s an enticement to roster Kelce. Those four TDs prove that he has multi-TD potential. If he scores twice, then he must be in DFS lineups. Also, those four TDs were scored on Monday Night Football — a showdown slate.

Derrick Henry ($10,800)

How can anyone afford Mahomes, Kelce and Henry? Get wacky with the punts and hope an obscure tight end or fullback finds paydirt. Henry has too much upside to fade. His workload is out of control. The Titans have pulled of the reins. They’re letting Henry run wild with no regard for longevity. Eventually, he will hit a wall. He’ll run himself into the ground. But for now, there is plenty left in the tank.

Noah Gray ($800)

Flip a coin between Justin Watson ($600), Jody Fortson ($200) and Noah Gray. Flip a coin twice because two will be needed in order to roster the names mentioned above. Deep punts are poison on classic slates. Their showdown efficacy is not much better than poison. They are about as helpful as experimental, government-mandated therapeutics. However, both are a little bit better than poison, and when options are scarce this is a risky road worth exploring.

Andy Reid will come out of the bye with plenty of his own experiments. Expect the Chiefs to dial up a wacky goal line play. Jody Fortson has caught two goal line touchdown passes this season. Gray is at zero with not much volume, but he is due and profiles as the better tight end. At Duke in 2019, Gray’s 51 receptions were the third-most among tight ends in the NCAA. Last but not least, Fortson is questionable. Also, don’t forget about Justin Watson. Mahomes threw for 428 yards in his last game (San Francisco) and he distributes to every pass catcher. Watson has two TDs on the season.


Fades

Ryan Tannehill ($9,800)

It does not matter whether Tannehill or Malik Willis ($9,000) line up under certain on Sunday night. Neither are in play. They’re the fourth and fifth most expensive players on the slate. That’s not outrageous given their position and the rest of the players on the slate, but they should be fourth and fifth at $8,000. At this price, no one will hesitate to skip the Tennessee QBs and find a couple extra coins in the cushions in order to get the three players mentioned above.


THE OUTCOME

Fight the bye-week narrative if you want. It has not been profitable to ignore the trend. Over his career, Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off the bye. Yes, he is 2-9 vs. the Titans, but this is a bad Titans team. They’re on a five-game win streak, but it was the softest five-game run ever. A Sunday night game in Kansas City is not soft. The run comes to an end.

Final Score: Kansas City 41, Tennessee 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (TEN vs KC)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.