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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets for Phillies vs. Astros Showdown on November 5

Zach Thompson gives his top MLB lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Phillies and Astros.

World Series - Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros - Game Two Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

After a thrilling World Series with plenty of twists and turns, the Houston Astros have a chance to hoist the trophy and claim the championship on Saturday night. After the Philadelphia Phillies took a 1-to-0 and then a 2-to-1 series lead, the Astros seized their first lead of the series with a win in Game 5 and can close out the series with one more win either Saturday or Sunday. They’ll be at home with a chance to validate their 2017 championship, which has since been soiled by a cheating scandal, and to avenge their World Series losses in 2019 to the Nationals and 2021 to the Braves.

As they look to close out the series, they’ll give the ball to Framber Valdez ($17,400 CP; $11,400), who has been their best pitcher this postseason. The Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler ($16,500 CP; $11,000) as they try to force a Game 7. This is a rematch of Game 2’s pitching matchup, which was also in Houston and resulted in a 5-2 Astros victory.

To help make Game 6 even more exciting, DraftKings is bringing large Showdown contests to give you a chance to grab a piece of some DFS action. As you get your squad assembled for Saturday night, check out my favorite options to build around highlighted below.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $125K Relay Throw [$125K to 1st] (HOU vs PHI)


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


Captain’s Picks

Framber Valdez ($17,100) – Valdez has been outstanding this postseason and is trying to add his name to the list of pitchers who propelled their teams to championships like Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett and Madison Bumgarner. Valdez has gone 2-0 in his three postseason starts, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 24 across 19 innings. He had nine strikeouts and 30.1 DKFP in Game 2 and has over 30 DKFP in three of his four most recent starts, dating back to his final start of the season, which was also against the Phillies and resulted in 33.5 DKFP on 10 strikeouts over five shutout innings.

Valdez has been especially effective against lefties, which sets him up well against the Phillies’ lineup. During the regular season, Valdez held lefties to a .192 batting average and .236 wOBA. He had a 24.5% strikeout rate against lefties and a 23.5% strikeout rate overall. The 28-year-old from the Dominican Republic had the best season of his career, and he has been even more effective in the playoffs.

Alex Bregman ($13,200) – Bregman has an extra-base hit in all but one game of the World Series and has at least nine DKFP in six of his past eight games overall. He’s hitting .292 this postseason with a .407 wOBA. He homered against Wheeler in Game 2 and gets a boost from the series shifting back to Houston, where he hit .305 with 16 of his 23 home runs, a .416 wOBA and a 178 wRC+ contrasted with just a 95 wRC+ on the road.

Flex Plays

Jeremy Peña ($8,400) – Peña has been another postseason hero for Houston, hitting .333 in the first 12 playoff games of his career with a team-leading four home runs and a .427 wOBA. He rose to the occasion and homered in the series-clinching wins over the Mariners and the Yankees, and he usually finds ways to be involved from his critical second spot in the batting order.

Alex Bregman ($9,200) – Bregman has gone 12-for-31 (.316) this postseason with a .424 wOBA. He had a double in Game 1 and then homered in Game 2 to help create some separation in the middle innings. He is averaging over 10.8 DKFP in his nine postseason games and is on the side of the splits I’m favoring in this contest.

Value Plays

Rhys Hoskins ($8,000) – While the Phillies’ lineup leans left-handed, Hoskins is the hitter who they rely on to smash southpaws. He has had a rough postseason overall, hitting just .169 but does have six home runs, showing he has a high ceiling. Against lefties this season, Hoskins hit .286 with a .404 wOBA and 162 wRC+. He homered as part of the Phillies' big Game 3 but has gone quiet since then including a rough 0-for-5 with four strikeouts on Thursday. He’s in a good spot to bounce back, though, against Valdez.

Fades

Kyle Schwarber ($9,200) – Schwarber has been one of the Phillies’ best performers this postseason and especially in the World Series, but I’m fading him in this contest since he continues to struggle against lefties. During the regular season, he hit only .193 against southpaws with a .305 wOBA and 94 wRC+ (contrasted with a 145 wRC+ vs. RHP). In the playoffs, Schwarber has been great overall but still just 2-for-15 with two singles against lefties.

The Outcome

Valdez has been excellent for the Astros, giving them the edge in the starting pitching matchup, especially with the concerning drop in Wheeler’s velocity in Game 2. With its deeper bullpen and more consistent lineup, I think Houston will finish the series on Saturday and celebrate the franchise's second World Series title.

Final Score: Houston Astros 4, Philadelphia Phillies 1

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $125K Relay Throw [$125K to 1st] (HOU vs PHI)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.