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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 15

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 15 is unique, in that there are three games on Saturday. That makes me giggle and shriek like the fantasy football freak that I am. We have the Chiefs favored by two touchdowns, which could force us to spend more time with the fam, although there should be plenty of opportunities in that Cowboys game for Zeke and Lamb to streak and ram, so many times that they flood the Gram. May you choose all the right players this week. May all those players go HAM.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four games with a total of at least 45 points: PHI/CHI (48.5), DAL/JAX (47.5), KC/HOU (49.5) and TEN/LAC (47). Two games have a total at 40 or below: PIT/CAR (38.5) and ARI/DEN (36). There is one double-digit favorite: the Chiefs -14 vs. the Texans, while the Eagles are favored by 9.5 points over the Bears. Five games are within a field goal: LAC -3 over TEN, DEN -3 over ARI, CAR -2.5 over PIT and NYJ -1 over DET.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


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Quarterback

Stud

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans, $7,200 — I’ve gone to Herbert plenty of times this season, and he’s disappointed me almost every time. He’s exceeded points expectations only 30% of the time this season. Yet, I’m going back to him again this week. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting the a different result. Yet, there are neurological links between insanity and genius. At least that’s what I tell myself as I Baker Mayfield my head into my living room wall.

Herbert has not had a 30-DKFP game this season and has gone under 20 DKFP five times. He gets a good matchup this week, though, against a team that Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) carved up for 368 yards and three touchdowns last week.

The Titans are tops in rush defense DVOA while being 28th in pass defense. The Chargers are second in pass rate, so the path of least resistance aligns with their strength.

Los Angeles also has a porous run defense, so Derrick Henry ($8,000) will likely be scoring plenty of fantasy goodies, which would force the Chargers to maintain aggression.

Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($8,100), Jalen Hurts ($8,200)

Value

Mac Jones, New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders, $5,000 — I don’t like the value at quarterback this week, so Jones it is. What a ringing endorsement! Jones has exceeded 20 DKFP only once this season, but he’s dirt cheap and has attempted 35, 36 and 39 pass attempts in the last three games.

The Raiders are dead-last in pass defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted sack rate.

Could this game end up being 20-17 with a random running back scoring both touchdowns? Most definitely, but if there’s a time for Jones to put up over 20 DKFP, this is the game.

Other Options – Mike White ($5,400)


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Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry ($8,000), Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers — Henry has carried only 17, 11 and 17 times over the last three weeks, and was held to under 40 yards in two of them. He should bounce back in a big way this week, as he takes on a Chargers team that has been a sieve in run defense for most of the season.

Since Week 3, the Chargers have allowed at least 150 yards rushing in eight games with three of those over 200 yards. Ruh roh, as King Henry is looking to rumble and stumble his way back onto the throne.

The floor is low with Henry because he doesn’t contribute much in the passing game and can get game scripted out, but he possesses one of the highest ceilings, having gone for at least 25 DKFP seven times with two over 30.

This game has a healthy total of 47 points and the Chargers are 25th in rush defense DVOA.

Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($8,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,000), Miles Sanders ($6,500), Tony Pollard ($7,100)

Value

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, $5,900 – Last week, Jerick McKinnon ($5,200) put up 35.4 DKFP. He only rushed six times for 22 yards, though. He did his damage in the passing game, catching seven of nine targets for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Broncos surprisingly made it somewhat competitive last week.

That shouldn’t be the case this week, as the Chiefs are 14-point favorites on the road. Houston is 27th in rush defense DVOA and Pacheco should handle more of the work since the passing-game prowess shouldn’t be needed as much in this one.

Due to recency bias and the fact that McKinnon received two red zone carries last week, the ownership for Pacheco should be lower. Over the last five games, Pacheco carried 13, 14, 22, 15 and 16 times.

Other Options – Latavius Murray ($5,100), Zonovan Knight ($5,300)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans, $6,800 — Well, I like Herbert so I better like his top receiver. Allen is a little tricky, though, because he’s more of a possession, dink-and-dunk kind of receiver. He will not be taking the top off the defense. That said, he’s been peppered with 14 targets in each of the last two games. The path of least resistance to attacking the Titans’ defense is through the air and Allen will be a big part of that. He’s gone for over 20 DKFP in each of the last two contests.

Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), Mike Williams ($6,300)

Value

Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders, $3,400 – Copy and past....Scratch that. Just re-read the Allen blurb above and replace Agholor’s name for Allen. Welcome to DK Mad Libs! Agholor is a low aDOT player like Allen, but he will get peppered with targets when he’s the top option. He received 10 targets last week. Now, Jakobi Meyers ($4,700) was out last week due to being in concussion protocol. If Meyers returns, then abort this mission.

Other Options – Garrett Wilson ($6,000)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, $7,800 – Kelce is the only tight end priced above $4,500, so he’s technically the only stud on the slate. Kelce is essentially a wide receiver one, but I have concerns about the volume in this one because it’s unlikely that the Texans force the Chiefs to maintain aggression. Paying down at tight end is probably the way to go this week, but if the projected ownership comes in low, then there’s always merit to playing Kelce because he can put up a 30-burger on any given Sunday. Or Thursday. Or Monday. Or Saturday.

Value

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals, $3,600 There’s unknowns with the Broncos offense thi.....Actually, they will stink. I kid, I kid. Russell Wilson is out due to injury so Brett Rypien ($5,000) gets the start. In his three year career, he’s played in six games with two starts, going 55-of-96 for 536 yards with 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

What isn’t unknown is how poorly the Cardinals defend the tight end position. They have allowed the most receptions, yards and touchdowns to the position by a wide margin.

Other Options – Gerald Everett ($4,300), Tyler Conklin ($3,100)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Chiefs DST at Houston Texans, $3,800 – The Chiefs are favored by 14 points and are 5th in adjusted sack rate. The Chiefs’ offense should have no problems scoring points, forcing the Texans to respond more aggressively, which could lead to sacks and interceptions. The projected ownership numbers will be huge in determining whether to play them or not, especially since this unit is very expensive. There’s definitely a scenario in which the Texans are able to run the ball and execute a dink-and-dunk passing game with no turnovers.

Other Options – Cardinals DST ($3,400), Eagles DST ($3,900)

Value

Patriots DST at Las Vegas Raiders, $2,800 – This unit has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. This week, Bill Belichick goes up against Josh McDaniels and I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the teacher will be showing the student another lesson, especially since the Raiders’ offense is so concentrated and predictable.

Other Options – Jets DST ($3,200)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.