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Fantasy Football Picks: Rams vs. Packers DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Rams and the Packers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

We’ve had some crazy football over the past 48 hours. Huge comebacks. Boneheaded last-second mistakes. Snow. All swinging the outlook of the playoff picture in both conferences. Well, I’m sorry to say it, but this game probably won’t be that. Tonight’s tilt between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams features two disappointing teams that will not be playing in February. However, after last Monday’s insanity, as long as everyone stays healthy, I think we’ll all be happy enough.

Let’s dive into it.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAR vs GB)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Aaron Jones ($16,800 CP) - Despite being limited in practices on Thursday and Friday, Jones does not carry an injury designation into Monday evening. His health was a concern in the Packers’ most recent contest, as Jones logged just a 37.9% snap share in Week 13 against the Bears. Trust me when I tell you that that figure is an outlier. In the three games prior to Green Bay’s victory over Chicago, Jones was on the field for at least 65% of the Packers’ offensive snaps. That role translated into averages of 20.7 touches and 19.8 DKFP — pretty good stuff. Coming out of a bye, you’d have to assume that Jones will be back to his usual workload. That should mean a noteworthy performance versus a Rams defense that will still be missing Aaron Donald on the interior line.

Cam Akers ($12,300 CP) - I have to admit, the presence of Malcolm Brown ($800) on the active roster was a huge knock to Akers’ role last Thursday, as the former second-round pick saw his snap count plummet from where it stood in Week 13. Still, Akers led his position group in carries (12) and snaps (27) in the Rams’ surprising victory over the Raiders. Most importantly, Akers received both of Los Angeles’ rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, which is why he was able to register his third touchdown in his past two games. Akers is far from the percent fantasy asset, yet he remains the most likely player on the Rams’ roster to garner a touch in a high-leverage situation. Add in a matchup with a Packers defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL by DVOA at stopping the run, and you’ve got a viable option at 1.5x value.


FLEX Plays

Allen Lazard ($7,600) - We’ll fully explore the concept of touchdown expectancy in a moment, but allow me to make something clear before we get into all that: Lazard is still the WR1 on the Packers. Whether you want to make that judgement based on snaps played, route participation rates or simply overall target share — Lazard is the guy. It just so happens that he hasn’t been the one finding the end zone as of late, despite the fact that it is Lazard who ranks first on the team in target rate inside the red zone (21.2%) and target rate specifically inside the 10-yard line (25.0%). Take advantage of the 27-year-old not being the most expensive wideout on Green Bay this evening, for normalization is on the horizon.

Tutu Atwell ($4,400) - Atwell played his best game of 2022 in Week 14, setting new season-highs in snap share (60.9%) and receptions (5). However, for the purposes of Showdown, Atwell’s most appealing quality might just be his big play ability. The sophomore wideout, who ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, not only led the Rams in target rate against Las Vegas at 27%, but he also led the team in air yards share at a whopping 41%. Atwell is given deep shots and the occasional carry on a gadget play, all with the express intent to create a chunk play. If he’s successful, it’ll alter the whole slate, and you’ll want him in a few lineups.


Fades

Christian Watson ($8,800) - For the love of math, this can’t keep happening. The rookie wideout has admirably stepped into a larger role since returning from a mid-season injury, but averaging two touchdowns per game across a four-week span just hurts my brain. It’s not only the frequency with which Watson is finding pay dirt, it’s how often he’s doing it without anything close to elite volume. Since the beginning of Week 10, Watson sits first among all skill-position players in receiving touchdowns (7), yet he also ranks tied for 66th in receptions in that same stretch (15). He’s scored eight times on 17 touches — that’s a 47.1% clip. Allow me pay homage to a classic Aaron Rodgers ($10,800) sound bite for a second: U-N-S-T-A-B-L-E. Watson could be in danger of losing work to Romeo Doubs ($6,800), too, as he’s set to take the field for the first time in over a month.


THE OUTCOME

If you’re looking for trends for this game — don’t bother. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 contests, while the Packers are only slightly better at 3-7 ATS. Still, one team is starting a soon-to-be Hall of Fame quarterback and the other is starting Baker Mayfield ($10,000). It’s also a night game, in December, in Green Bay. Give me the favorites.

Final Score: Green Bay 24, Los Angeles 14

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAR vs GB)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.