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Fantasy Football Picks: Jaguars vs. Jets DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Jaguars and the Jets with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

It’s the penultimate Thursday Night Football game of the season and this one carries some weight in the AFC playoff picture. I mean, it’s not worth all the marbles, but it’s worth a decent amount of marbles. That is to say, marbles will be exchanged. We’ve got the New York Jets still vying for a Wild Card spot hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, who remain very much alive in the race for their division.

Let’s dive into it.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (JAX vs NYJ)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Zach Wilson ($14,700 CP) - I know. I’m also not sure how we got here. First things first, let’s point out the elephant in the room: DFS is not real-life. Wilson was not particularly strong in last week’s loss against the Lions, yet he still finished the game with 317 passing yards, two touchdowns and 23.38 DKFP. Thus is the capricious nature of the former second-overall pick. Wilson can use his physical tools to make miraculous plays, yet there’s always a mental mistake around the corner. However, for our purposes, that just translates into a high ceiling asset on a one-game slate. This happens to be a pretty great matchup, too. The Jaguars are not the Patriots. Jacksonville has surrendered the sixth-most DKFP per game to opposing QBs this season and a huge reason why is a lack of pressure. In fact, the Jaguars enter Week 16 with the lowest adjusted sack rate in the AFC (5.1%) — a trend which should only get worse with Travon Walker sidelined. While Wilson is a dumpster fire when under pressure, he’s actually averaging 8.6 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. The only qualified quarterbacks better? Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes. Go figure.

Travis Etienne ($14,400 CP) - The Jets D/ST ($3,600) doesn’t really have a weakness — particularly if Quinnen Williams is able to suit up on Thursday — so it would seem the path to take with the Jaguars’ fantasy assets is secured volume. Well, say hello to Etienne. Putting aside the Baltimore game in Week 12 he was forced to leave due to injury, Etienne’s logged at least a 70% snap share in seven straight contests. For context, only three RBs have a season-long snap rate above 70%: Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook and Josh Jacobs. That’s some pretty good company to associate yourself with. If there is a quibble with the sophomore’s role, it would be an underwhelming workload in the passing attack, yet Etienne’s seen as many as five targets multiple times in 2022. The opportunity exists, it’s simply been a little inconsistent.


FLEX Plays

Evan Engram ($7,600) - The only receiving option on Jacksonville I can definitely say won’t be covered by Sauce Gardner is Engram. That’s great news and it might funnel more looks to the veteran TE, though it’s not like Trevor Lawrence ($11,400) has been shy about utilizing Engram in recent games. Since the beginning of Week 13, Engram is third in the NFL in receptions with 24. Not third among tight ends — third in the whole NFL. He trails only Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen in that span of time. Obviously, Engram has been the Jaguars’ most-targeted player in this three-contest run, posting individual target shares of 23%, 37% and 25%, respectively. He’s also been a mainstay in the red zone. If you needed one more reason to fully believe in Engram’s viability.

Elijah Moore ($4,800) - There’s some uneasy history between Moore and Wilson and it’s undeniable that the former’s best performances of the season have come with the latter holding a clipboard. However, if you’re like me and think that Wilson is in for a big statistical showing on Thursday night, someone other than Garrett Wilson ($9,000) is going to have to pitch in. Moore might be in store for a slight drop in his snap share with Corey Davis ($5,600) back in the mix — he’s logged an 83% rate and a 75% rate the past two weeks — yet the sophomore wideout is still coming off seven targets this past Sunday versus the Lions. If that volume stays in the same neighborhood against Jacksonville, Moore’s a steal with a price tag below $5K.


Fades

Zay Jones ($8,200) - There’s a couple things to consider with Jones on this slate. First and foremost, he’s coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Cowboys last weekend and will likely carry some extra attention into Thursday evening. Second, this could be an exceedingly difficult matchup for the wideout. Jones primarily lines up out wide for the Jaguars and it seems like he might be the next WR sacrificed to the aforementioned Gardner. Just ask DJ Chark how that goes. The Jets have surrendered the second-fewest DKFP per contest to opposing wide receivers in 2022 and the team’s fantastic secondary is a massive reason why. Christian Kirk ($10,200), who happens to have lined up in the slot on over half his offensive snaps this season, might be the better high-end option in this spot.


THE OUTCOME

This line has shifted heavily in the past 48 hours. In fact, at one point on Tuesday, the Jets were home dogs by a full point on the DraftKings Sportsbook. I would have preferred to bet New York then, however I’m still leaning towards a bounce back game for Zach Wilson and friends. Simply put, I trust the Jets defense more than any other unit in this matchup and New York happens to be 5-1 ATS in its past six contests coming off a loss.

Final Score: New York 24, Jacksonville 21

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (JAX vs NYJ)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.