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Fantasy Football Picks: Chargers vs. Colts DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Chargers and the Colts with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images

Look, I won’t judge anyone for how they want to spend their holidays, yet if I’m being honest, there’s a very small chance I’m going to be watching this Monday night clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts. I mean, maybe I’ll be snowed in at my in-laws and it’ll be a last resort entertainment option, but barring that scenario, I’m going to pass on another primetime Colts game. I’m throwing in the white towel. Forgive me Jeff Saturday.

It’s the penultimate MNF of the season. Let’s dive into it.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAC vs IND)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Keenan Allen ($14,700 CP) - I’ll admit that Austin Ekeler ($11,000) is also appealing in this spot, but Allen’s been a targets machine since returning to full health a few games back. Since Week 13 — a span of time where Allen’s logged at least an 85% snap share in every start — the veteran wideout ranks first in the AFC in targets (37), first the AFC in receptions (26) and 10th among all WRs in DKFP with 59.6. In a full-point PPR setting, and with Justin Herbert ($10,400) throwing him the football, it’s difficult to find a way to undercut or overestimate Allen’s viability on Monday. It also doesn’t hurt that Colts D/ST ($3,400) has allowed 2.3 opponent passing touchdowns per contest across its past three matchups — the second-highest mark in the league.

Zack Moss ($10,500 CP) - Moss’ price tag is incredibly tantalizing if the role we saw him inhabit last Saturday is at all similar to the one we see against the Chargers. After Jonathan Taylor (ankle) was only able to play two snaps in last week’s loss to the Vikings, Moss took over as the “bell cow” back, registering a 67.1% snap share and 24 carries. In the end, that amounted to just 8.1 DKFP, but we’re a process over results Showdown article. You know that. There’s also the matter of Los Angeles’ run defense. The Chargers surrendered yet another 100-yard rushing performance in Week 15 and the team is now conceding the fourth-most DKFP per game to opposing backfields in 2022. In fact, Los Angeles is giving up 161.4 opponent rushing yards per contest on the road this season — the highest mark in the AFC.


FLEX Plays

Chargers D/ST ($4,600) - Derrick Henry aside, Los Angeles’ defense has looked much better the past two weeks — particularly in shutting down an explosive Dolphins offense on Sunday Night Football in Week 14. Now, the unit will face a Colts attack that has moved on to its third starting quarterback of the season. Why is that? Well, Indianapolis ranks 31st in points per drive (1.45) and 28th in yards per drive (27.9) in 2022. The Colts have also turned the ball over on 17.0% of their drives, which stands as the highest rate in the NFL. Add in an offensive line that owns the seventh-worst adjusted sack rate in the league (8.9%) and it’s not hard to see why Indianapolis is gifting the most DKFP per game to opposing defenses. The Colts have been so poor that the fact they just lost their All-Pro running back for the remainder of the year hasn’t even been mentioned as evidence yet. Woof.

Alec Pierce ($2,800) - Count me among those trying to make Alec Pierce a thing. The results have been uneven — that’s my polite way of saying Pierce hasn’t made a catch in two of the Colts’ past three games — yet the opportunity is undeniable. Since Week 11, the rookie wideout has registered at least a 70% offensive snap share in every matchup. Pierce is also second on Indianapolis in targets within this span, though the second-round pick has only been able to convert seven of those 23 chances into a reception. Chalk some of that inefficiency up to Pierce’s healthy 13.6-yard aDOT. Chalk some of that up to poor QB play. Chalk some of that up to sheer bad luck. Whatever the case, Pierce is a big play threat, and you’d hope his outlook is better with Nick Foles ($9,000) now under center.


Fades

Nick Foles ($9,000) - I’ll take a chance on this passing game with a cheap flyer like Pierce, but paying up for Foles is a whole different matter. I mean, Foles is likely better than Matt Ryan at this stage of his career, but that’s not exactly a high bar to clear. There’s probably a reason this will be just the 33-year-old’s second start since the beginning of last season. It’s also worth noting that most of the Chargers’ defensive issues have been stopping the run. They’ve been perfectly fine against the pass. So much so, that Los Angeles has only allowed one 300-yard passing performance in 2022: Patrick Mahomes in Week 11. Basically, the matchup is a non-factor at best, which leaves little reason to believe in Foles.


THE OUTCOME

Recent performance isn’t everything, but these are clearly two organizations moving in opposite directions. The Chargers are getting healthy and have solid wins over two AFC playoff teams in the past two weeks. The Colts? Well, they blew a 33-point lead to the Vikings after surrendering a 33-point fourth quarter to the Cowboys. It’s bleak. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS on the road in 2022. Look for the Chargers to handle their business.

Final Score: Los Angeles 31, Indianapolis 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAC vs IND)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.