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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 17

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Washington Commanders v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

13 is supposedly an unlucky number. To think that would be a massive blunder as that’s how many games we have on this slate. Time to crunch the numbers, I can’t think of another way to spend this date. Unfortunately, none for punters. What a bummer for those who are so encumbered. Y’all probably enjoy watching the two gunners! So shake off the cobwebs from your slumber and stop dreaming about the summer or the glory days of Jake Plummer. It’s time to make the DK account much plumper.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four games with a total of at least 45 points: DEN/KC (45), CHI/DET (52), SF/LV (45) and MIN/GB (48.5). Four games have a total at 40 or below: IND/NYG (38.5), CAR/TB (40.5), and CLE/WAS (40.5). There is one double-digit favorite: KC -13 over DEN. Five games are within a field goal: TB -3 over CAR, WAS -2 over CLE, NE -3 over MIA and NYJ -1.5 over SEA. HOU, LVR, and SEA are home dogs.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, $7,900 — Fields is coming off a game in which he threw for 119 yards and rushed for only 11 yards. That translated to 9.86 DKFP. That contest was against a tough Bills defense in inclement weather.

Prior to last week, Fields put up at least 20 DKFP in seven straight with two over 40. One of those 40-burgers was against these Detroit Lions, a game in which he threw for only 167 yards but with two touchdowns and a whopping 147 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

This game will be played in the friendly confines of Ford Field and the total is the highest on the slate at 52.

Value

Mike White, New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks, $5,400 — In nine starts this season, Zach Wilson attempted more than 30 passes three times. Last week, he was benched for someone named Chris Streveler. Wilson is no more, at least for this season, so White will once again be under center. In three starts during Weeks 12 to 14, White attempted 28, 57 and 44 passes, with the last two games on the road.

I think the Jets are going to let White sling the ball around again, against a Seattle defense that is 21st in pass defense DVOA. White went for 27.8 and 22.46 DKFP in two of his starts, so if he gets the volume, there are playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for New York to make plays.

Other Options – Jared Goff ($5,600), Brock Purdy ($5,500)


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Running Back

Stud

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders, $9,000 — The 49ers are favored by 9.5 points on the road, so this one could get ugly. Las Vegas is 20th in rush defense DVOA and dead last against the pass. They allow the 27th-highest touchdown percentage in the red zone and have allowed the second-most receptions to running backs, with the second-most in the red zone.

Over the last four games, McCaffrey has put up 13.8, 28.8, 32.3 and 28.6 DKFP. Three of those games were blowouts so he should get his regardless of the game environment.

Other Options – Dalvin Cook ($7,000), David Montgomery ($6,900)

Value

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals, $5,300 – The Falcons rush at the second-highest rate in the NFL. They are at home this week and 3.5-point favorites over the Cardinals, who are 27th in rush defense DVOA and allow the second-highest touchdown rate in the red zone.

Last week, Allgeier received 59% of the snaps while Cordarrelle Patterson ($5,400) garnered only 37%. It had been 50/50 in the prior two contests. Over the last two weeks, Allgeier has rushed 17 and 18 times for 139 and 74 yards respectively. He had two red zone carries, and more importantly, received five targets in the passing game.

Other Options – Cam Akers ($6,100), Brian Robinson ($5,200), D’Andre Swift ($5,300), Leonard Fournette ($5,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears, $7,800 — Over the last nine games, St. Brown has been a fantasy metronome, receiving at least eight targets in all, with double-digit targets in six of those contests. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in all, with two games over 30.

The Bears are 29th in pass defense DVOA and he caught 10 of 11 targets for 119 yards the last time these teams met. This game has the highest total on the slate and will be played on the fast track of Ford Field.

Other Options – Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Chris Godwin ($6,800)

Value

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks, $5,500 – In three games with Mike White at the helm, Wilson received 7, 15 and 8 targets, which he translated into 6, 8 and 5 catches for 78, 162 and 95 yards (two touchdowns). That was good for 13.8, 27.2 and 26.4 DKFP. I think the Jets let White sling it around the field again, and Wilson should be the primary beneficiary of that.

Other Options – Amari Cooper ($5,800), Drake London ($4,900)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos, $8,100 – Kelce is the only tight end priced above $5,900, so he’s technically the only stud on the slate. Kelce is essentially a wide receiver one. He’s had five games with double-digit targets and six contests over 100 yards receiving. He’s exceeded points expectations 60% of the time and faces a Broncos defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and third-most touchdowns to the position.

Other Options – George Kittle ($5,900), T.J. Hockenson ($5,400)

Value

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, $4,400 Over the last four games, Engram has received 7, 15, 10 and 8 targets, resulting in 30, 162, 62 and 113 yards and three touchdowns. That’s translated to 14, 42.2, 14.2 and 21.3 DKFP. What a time to be alive! In the first game against the Texans this season, Engram caught 6 of 10 targets for 69 yards. The volume is there and this trend looks to be our friend.

Other Options – Cole Kmet ($4,500), Tyler Conklin ($2,900)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Giants DST vs. Indianapolis Colts, $3,900 – The Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league and get to feast on Nick Foles ($5,200), who threw three interceptions and got sacked seven times last week.

Other Options – Chiefs DST ($3,800)

Value

49ers DST at Las Vegas Raiders, $2,900 – Derek Carr died (metaphorically speaking) so that Jarrett Stidham could live. Poor Stidham. He has to face a ferocious 49ers defense that is tops against the run and fifth against the pass. The unit has racked up 41 sacks, 7 fumble recoveries, 15 interceptions and 3 touchdowns on the season.

Other Options – Jets DST ($2,800)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.