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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 14

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 14 has six teams on bye. Oh my, my — the most since Week 9. I know it was by design but, my goodness, it sure hurts the spine. I need to take a deep breath and calm the mind until everything is fine. No time to whine. Now it’s time to read the below, line by line, and not just put your faith in the divine and wait for a sign.

Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints and Commanders are on bye.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 45 points: MIN/DET (53), PHI/NYG (45.5) and CLE/CIN (47) . Two games have a total at 40 or below: BAL/PIT (37) and TB/SF (37). There is one double-digit favorite: Cowboys -16.5 vs. Texans while the Bills and Chiefs are both favored by 9.5 points over the Jets and Broncos, respectively. Only two games are within a field goal: Steelers -2.5 vs. Ravens and Lions -2 vs. Vikings. There are two home dogs: Giants and Broncos.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


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Quarterback

Stud

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, $8,100 — The Giants are poor defending both the pass and the run, so the path of least resistance is? Everywhere for the Eagles. That could mean more of an emphasis utilizing the run game, which would negate some of the luster for Hurts. That said, Hurts has exceeded points expectations 50% of the time this season and has only two games in which he has scored fewer than 20 DKFP. Over the last two games, he’s gone for 37.4 and 32.82 DKFP.

The floor is extremely high due to his 132 rushes for 609 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. He’s put up at least 30 DKFP four times this season and another one is within the range of outcomes because the Giants blitz 40.8% of the time — the highest mark in the league — which would leave opportunities in the passing game and open lanes when Hurts chooses to run.

Other Options – Joe Burrow ($7,000), Geno Smith ($6,200)

Value

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, $5,700 — Lawrence has had an up and down season. He’s completed fewer than 60% of his passes in six games, but he’s also completed over 70% in six games — going over 80% in three of those contests. He’s scored at least 20 DKFP in five games, with the high of 28.94 two weeks ago.

The Titans are first in rush defense DVOA while being 22nd in pass defense. They are also 19th in adjusted sack rate. The unit has allowed the most completions and attempts with the second-most yards and third-most touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season.

The Jaguars should lean towards the pass and find some success. Lawrence has attempted at least 40 pass attempts four times this season.

Other Options – Kirk Cousins ($6,100), Jared Goff ($5,600)


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Running Back

Stud

Joe Mixon ($6,900) or Samaje Perine ($6,300), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland BrownsMixon has missed the last two games due to a concussion, but he could be cleared for Week 14. The matchup on the ground is one of the best in football, as the Browns are 31st in rush defense DVOA. Cleveland has allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs with the second-most red-zone touches.

If Mixon is unable to go, then Perine would be a plug-and-play option. While filling in for Mixon over the last two games, Perine has rushed 17 and 21 times for 58 and 106 yards, respectively. He has also received seven targets in each contest.

Other Options – Derrick Henry ($7,900), Dalvin Cook ($7,300), Tony Pollard ($6,700), Ezekiel Elliot ($6,100), Kenneth Walker III ($6,800), Miles Sanders ($6,200)

Value

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings, $5,800 – Swift was hyped up coming into this season, and for good reason. He’s an explosive back who can take one to the house on any play while contributing in the passing game. Unfortunately, he has suffered a bevy of injuries, which has limited him and allowed Jamaal Williams ($5,900) to rack up 14 touchdowns on the season.

After receiving only 30% of the snaps in week 10 through 12, Swift got 51% of the snaps last week, rushing 14 times for 62 yards with a touchdown while catching four of six targets for 49 yards. He also had five rushes and one target in the red zone.

This game has the highest total on the slate at 53, so it could be an up-and-down affair with plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies. In addition, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most receptions and third-most yards to running backs.

Other Options – Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Devin Singletary ($5,700)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $9,000 — These teams played in Week 3, and Jefferson was held to three receptions for 14 yards on six targets. First pass was thrown high by Kirk Cousins ($6,100), which Jefferson dropped — Jeff Okuda was two yards away. Second pass was a short one over the middle that he caught. Third pass actually wasn’t intended for him but was counted as a target. Fourth was a drop while Jefferson was running a drag across the field. Fifth pass was a short catch off another drag route. Sixth pass was a drop after Jefferson ran a curl route. — Okudah was right on his hip.

My point is that Detroit didn’t do anything exotic schematically. Jefferson just had an off day. It happens. I don’t foresee the same thing happening in the rematch, and I’d expect the proper adjustments to be made by the Vikings offense.

Jefferson has gone for at least 30 DKFP in five games this season, with a high of 42.4.

Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), DK Metcalf ($7,100), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Christian Kirk ($6,600)

Value

Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, $4,700 – I like Lawrence, so I have to like some of his receivers — unless he truly is a god and can throw passes to himself. If people are utilizing the Jaguars’ passing attack this week, I’d imagine most will pair Lawrence with Christian Kirk ($6,600), which makes sense because he’s received eight, nine, 12, nine, seven and 10 targets over the last six games while going over 100 yards twice with three touchdowns.

The targets have been more volatile for Jones, but he received 14 and 10 in weeks 11 and 12, respectively, and went over 100 yards in one of those contests. The rostership will likely be minuscule compared to Kirk, and he’s garnered three red-zone looks compared to two over the last two games.

Other Options – Garrett Wilson ($5,900)


Tight End

Stud

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, $6,500 – The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most yards and third-most touchdowns to tight ends this season. Now they have to face one of the best in the game. Granted, it will be Tyler Huntley ($5,500) throwing him the ball, but in five games last season with Huntley at quarterback, Andrews went 8/73, 11/115 TD, 10/136 2 TD, 6/89 and 8/85.

Other Options – T.J. Hockenson ($5,100)

Value

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, $3,300 Engram has two games with just one target and one with 10 targets, so the range is wide for him. He has not exceeded 70 yards receiving in any contest and has scored two touchdowns on the season. That said, he hauled in five of seven targets for 30 yards and a touchdown last week and now faces a Titans team that has allowed the fourth-most receptions, third-most targets, second-most yards and most touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Other Options – Greg Dulcich ($3,400), Pat Freiermuth ($4,500)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Cowboys DST vs. Houston Texans, $3,800 – The Cowboys are first in adjusted sack rate and are favored by a whopping 16.5 points. Yikes. The unit has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time and put up double-digit DKFP seven times this season, posting three plus-20-DKFP games. They have held nine opponents to 20 or fewer points — with two failing to crack double digits — while racking up a total of 48 sacks, 11 fumble recoveries, 10 interceptions and three touchdowns.

Value

Buccaneers DST at San Francisco 49ers, $2,900 – None of the cheap defenses stand out to me, so Buccaneers it is. The unit is eighth in pass defense DVOA while being 10th in rush defense. More importantly, they are third in adjusted sack rate. Brock Purdy ($5,100) played well last week, but that was his first career start. Now there is a little tape on him, and some mistakes could be made against one of the better defenses in the league.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.