Did pit road determine the winner last week or did NASCAR? The racing officials have developed a peculiar habit of ignoring dangerous situations on track when it favors the driver that the future of their business hinges on. Either way, the fastest car did not win. That means long shots are alive and well in NASCAR 2022.
As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY Made in America at Road America, which gets underway Sunday, July 3 at 3 p.m. ET.
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It’s time for the weekly public service announcement. Betting on NASCAR in 2022 is not so much betting on racing. It’s betting on pit road. That means the fastest pit crews matter, but this betting strategy also includes pit sequencing, strategy and gambles. Once again, last week proved this theory to be true. The best car did not win. The race was won on pit road or rather by those that chose to forgo pit road entirely.
Daniel Suarez earned a shocking victory earlier this month at Sonoma. How did he do it? First of all, his Trackhouse Racing Chevy was fast, but it’s Daniel Suarez. There is a necessary amount of speed needed to win in the Next Gen car, but half of the field have it. So what separates this half? Track position and pit stops. The Next Gen car has problems. Give NASCAR a break, it’s year one, version one. Passing simply isn’t going to happen this season. It surely isn’t going to happen at the road courses. Suarez had track position and played the pit strategy correctly at Sonoma. Passing at Sonoma was difficult before the Next Gen car, so Suarez cruised to a win.
This week, NASCAR returns to another road course not designed for stock cars — none of them are. Track position, pit sequencing and the willingness to dump a leader will once again determine the race winner. The results will not be completely random, but compared to open-wheeled road course racing, it’s very much random.
Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY Made in America Race Winner
Chase Briscoe +2500 to win
With the logic explained above, the long shots become quite appealing at Road America. The selection of Briscoe might be digging a little deep. He’s basically the cut line between possible winners and Hail Marys. That could be interpreted as Briscoe being a very unlikely winner, but his odds are too long. He’s won multiple Xfinity Series road races, finished strongly in previous Cup Series road races and these races can be random based on pit road. Last season at Road America, Briscoe started 35th but finished 6th.
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Driver Props
Matchups — Head 2 Head — Christopher Bell vs. Austin Cindric
Austin Cindric -115
Both drivers won at Road America in the Xfinity Series. Bell has a road course victory in the Cup Series (Daytona Road Course), while Cindric does not. This does not mean Bell is a better road course driver. It only means that Bell has one more win in more attempts. Last season, one of Cindric’s Cup Series warm ups was at Road America. Cindric looked like the driver to beat, but then his car died. So far this season, he finished fifth at Sonoma and eighth at COTA, along with running the sixth-most laps inside the top 5 at COTA.
Matchups — Head 2 Head — Daniel Suarez vs. AJ Allmendinger
AJ Allmendinger +100
The Trackhouse Racing car is better. The Kaulig Racing Driver is better. Both are close, but there is more of a disparity in the latter. Allmendinger has tons of experience and tons of experience at Road America. This is Daniel Suarez’s fourth time at Road America and last year he did not turn many worthwhile laps due to a mechanical failure early in the race. Allmendinger should be the favorite, but recency bias has incorrectly pushed the market towards Suarez
Matchups — Head 2 Head — Kyle Larson vs. Ross Chastain
Kyle Larson -120
Not that Larson really needs any help, but he will be participating in the Xfinity Series race at Road America this weekend. That’s a lot of reps between the practices and races. Last season at Road America, Larson was running down race leader Chase Elliott, but his teammate, Alex Bowman, wrecked Larson on lap 56 of 62. Larson should have won the the Sonoma race several weeks ago, but the team chose a bold pit strategy that did not pay off.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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