Pat Mayo and Justin Herzig discuss the 2022 Best Ball Top Stacks and Week 17 Correlation on DraftKings. Plus, the best cheap options at WR and TE.
The idea of reverse engineering rosters in DraftKings Best Ball drafts isn’t a new concept. But it’s becoming more widely implemented in 2022. Well, maybe not, but it’s certainly being talked about far more often; the sample size being my personal bubble.
Building a team that is set to peak at the right time — Weeks 15-17, after you advance to the knockout stages — makes all the sense when you’re competing against 800,000-plus other teams to snag a million dollar first prize. Obviously, you need to get to the final stage in Week 17 first, however, maximizing your winning potential once you’re there is a better strategy to win all the money than peaking Week 10 and grinding from there. NO. Grind as long as possible to advance and smash once you’re there. Also, have luck on your side, that never hurts in these situations.
I was curious if the league-winning performances in those money weeks were coming from studs or if they came from guys that were basically off the radar when drafts were occurring that summer. Over the past decade, a flex player has scored 90+ PPR fantasy points 10 times over the final three games of the fantasy season:
Some minor exceptions, but on the whole, we are looking at early round picks that spent the first 13 weeks of the season dominating and continued to do so with your DraftKings Best Ball season on the line.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (84.9 points in Weeks 15-17 last season, most among all flex players) was a great story last season and put some serious money in your pocket if you made it to the knockout stages with him stashed, but understand that he is the outlier and not the norm. In fact, the next four top flex players over those final three weeks of the fantasy season last year? Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews and Ja’Marr Chase. Stars, much like what we’ve seen over time.
The interesting spin? Of those top 10 seasons from above, seven are running backs. HOWEVEAAAAAAAA… two of the three receiver seasons came very recently, and four of the top five scorers last season were WRs. This would support that idea of going WR-heavy early. The league continues to move in a direction that favors the pass game, and given star players have traditionally provided the game-breaker performances down the stretch (not to mention relative health at the WR position compared to RBs), those high-volume receivers seem to be the play early on.
Weeks 15-17 (Rank vs. WR based on 2021)
- CeeDee Lamb: Two games against bottom-five defenses vs. fantasy WRs
- Tyreek Hill: NE and BUF allowed the fewest WR points last season: He plays both in this stretch
- Keenan Allen: Two games against bottom-10 defenses vs. fantasy WRs
- Deebo Samuel: Two games against top-10 defenses vs. fantasy WRs
2022 Fantasy Football WR Projections
Never take projections as gospel, or even as rankings. Projections weigh a range of outcomes and gives a middle point, this helps in creating a season-long baseline of potential consistency, which is antithetical to what we want to accomplish in DraftKings Best Ball. If this was Hearts, we’d be trying to shoot the moon every time, especially in the late round.
Fortunately, customizing your projections allows you to fiddle around with the handles and bake in the upside on all players to see what that looks like for them. RunTheSims.com has projections you can customize and save for FREE if you want to go work off the baselines. Highly recommend it.
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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award, and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2022 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 24 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.
Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Daily Fantasy and Traditions Season Long). Beyond sports, Mayo covers everything from entertainment to pop culture to politics. If you have a fantasy question, general inquiry or snarky comment, ship it to Mayo at ThePatMayoExperience@gmail.com and the best will be addressed on the show.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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