We’ve hit that point in the summer — basketball is over, even the Summer League, and we’re at the All-Star break in baseball. While I have already dropped some college football win total plays in the ACC on NC State and North Carolina, it’s time to dig into some NFL futures. Let’s start with my favorite one available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Almost all of my football futures will be posted in article form, but as always follow along on Twitter, as some will just be posted here — @julianedlow.
I’ve been tossing this one out there for a few months now on different media hits since the play sat at even money, and I want to make sure to publicly give out the play as a larger 3-unit wager before the price gets away from us closer to the season.
There are a lot of strong points that back this play, and the first one doesn’t even have to do with the Colts. There aren’t really any other divisions that sit at a fair price like this where we can essentially eliminate two teams out of the gates — Jacksonville and Houston. Even if either of those teams surprises us a bit, they just have no shot at a division crown.
That leaves us in a two-horse race between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee swept the season series with Indy last season, but I think these two squads went in different directions this offseason. Our last impression of Ryan Tannehill was one of the worst playoff games at QB we’ve seen in a long time, tossing three backbreaking interceptions. While Robert Woods was added, both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones (who combined for over 1,300 yards last season) are on their way out, so there aren’t as many playmakers to help cover up an overrated defense in Tennessee.
Meanwhile, the Colts made just about as large of an upgrade at QB as they could’ve hoped for, and the numbers back it up. You could argue Carson Wentz single-handedly threw away the head-to-heads with the Titans last season, costing the Colts the division. Matt Ryan should be far sharper for this team, making fewer mistakes and elevating the play of a solid receiving core.
We don’t have to breakdown the schedule here to the degree we do with a win total since we mostly just need the Colts to beat out the Titans, so let’s just look at some schedule comparisons. If we say these two teams split their head-to-heads, Indy could easily go 5-1 in division. But let’s say Indy and Tennessee wind up with the same record in-division — they play very similar schedules out of division, but slightly less favorable for the defending champion Titans.
The Colts are the better team with the easier schedule, so I’ll gladly back them here in one of my larger futures.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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