The Tuesday after a long weekend. Truly one of the worst working days on the calendar. Still, Tuesdays aren’t always bad news. For instance, Tuesday’s usually mean a whole lot of baseball, and we’ve got a jam-packed 12-game featured slate tonight on DraftKings.
Let’s break down some studs and values.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals, $9,500 - Woof. This is arguably the worst pitching slate I’ve seen all season, but don’t let that detract from Garcia’s viability. The right-hander has been solid all season long, and his numbers dating back to the beginning of May are difficult to overlook. Garcia’s started 10 games in that span, maintaining a 3.29 ERA and a 3.28 xFIP. Most importantly for DFS purposes, Garcia’s also been an elite strikeout arm within that stretch, averaging 10.0 strikeouts per nine with a an overall strikeout rate of 27.0%. The Royals have been hitting well lately, yet for 2022 as a whole, Kansas City owns the league’s sixth-lowest wOBA against RHPs (.295). Look for Garcia to take advantage.
Spencer Howard, Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, $5,700 - Did I mention this pitching slate is awful? I could see a lot of people gravitating towards Yusei Kikuchi ($7,800), but I have heartburn just thinking about the Jays’ LHP as chalk, so allow me to sell you on the upside of Howard. The former top prospect has struggled immensely at the MLB level, yet Howard’s thrived in Triple-A in 2022, posting a 3.65 FIP with a massive 30.8% strikeout rate in 10 appearances. Honestly, Howard’s strikeout potential has been about the only thing that’s translated in the big leagues before, giving me hope he can slingshot his recent run of minor league success into a passable DFS performance on Tuesday. For their part, the Orioles do swing-and-miss quite a bit, with the team’s 25.1% strikeout rate over the past two weeks ranking as the second-highest mark in the AL.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, $5,300 - At this point, just consider Goldschmidt viable every single night he’s in the lineup. Since May 1, the veteran is slashing .361/.445/.708 with a 218 wRC+ in his 255 plate appearances. That is not a small sample. Yes, he’s specifically been otherworldly against LHPs, but a .957 OPS versus righties isn’t too shabby, either. There’s also the recent issues of Ian Anderson ($8,500) to consider. Over his last eight starts, Anderson’s surrendered a whopping .400 wOBA to opposing RHBs.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, $4,900 - While I can appreciate that Ramirez has gone some time without hitting a home run, how are we living in a world where the All-Star is priced at less than $5K heading into a matchup with Drew Hutchison ($6,000)? Ramirez has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching in 2022, posting a .308 average and a 189 wRC+ in his 231 plate appearances as an LHB. Ramirez is also 3-for-6 with a home run and a double off Hutchison, if you’re the kind of person who cares for such stats.
Kolten Wong, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,700 - Wong had slightly more value as the Brewers’ leadoff man, but he seems to now be locked into the five-spot when the team is facing an RHP. Wong’s been exceedingly strong within the split in 2022, registering a .227 ISO and a 134 wRC+ in his 178 plate appearances. Still, the headline here is the presence of Kyle Hendricks ($7,600). Simply put, lefties have eaten the veteran’s lunch this season, with Hendricks conceding an eye-popping 2.38 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. That’s some bleak stuff.
Jose Trevino, New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,100 - Would you be shocked to discover that the Yankees regular with the best numbers against LHPs this season has been Trevino? Granted, it’s only a 30 plate appearances sample size, but the backstop has posted a .231 ISO and a 171 wRC+ within the split. Trevino also owns an overall wRC+ of 124 dating back to the beginning of May, so there are certainly worse ways to punt the catcher position on Tuesday.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals, $5,300 - I know. It’s not June anymore. How dare I write up Schwarber. Well, if the hulking outfielder is facing a right-handed opponent, it could be December for all I care. Schwarber has posted a .424 xwOBA when facing RHPs in 2022 — the 10th-highest mark among qualified hitters. Also of note: Paolo Espino ($6,700) has had trouble keeping the ball in the park since moving to the Nationals’ rotation, as he’s surrendered 1.96 opponent home runs per nine.
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, $4,100 - Blue Jays stacks came back empty on Monday, but that’s no reason not to go back to the well, particularly with Adrian Martinez ($7,200) taking the mound for Oakland. Martinez, who owned a 5.63 ERA at Triple-A this season, was destroyed in his last outing, giving up seven earned runs, three barrels and a pair of home runs against Seattle. Seems like a great matchup for Hernandez. This is also a great price for Hernandez, as the outfielder is quietly slashing .310/.350/.558 with a 155 wRC+ since May 31. Why the discount, DraftKings?
Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, $3,200 - Thomas hits lefties well and the Nationals know it. For his career, the 26-year-old sports a 128 wRC+ within the split, which is why he’s been hitting out of the leadoff spot for the team when they’ve been facing LHPs like Cristopher Sanchez ($5,200). Thomas is also coming off a very successful month of June, where he batted .281 with a 138 wRC+.
Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, $3,200 - It’s been a rough season for Reyes, but things have looked better since his return from the IL on June 21. In the 50 plate appearances since that point, the veteran is carrying a .271 ISO and a 124 wRC+. Granted, there’s still so, so much swing-and-miss in his game, but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue against Hutchison. The RHP’s zone contact rate is hovering around 89.0% since the beginning of 2021. Not great, Bob.
TEAMS TO STACK
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs - There’s a lot to like here. First and foremost, the Brewers have left-handed bats to spare, with Christian Yelich ($4,900), Rowdy Tellez ($4,500), Omar Narvaez ($3,700) and Wong all occupying premium spots in the lineup. Then, on top of Hendricks, you’re dealing with a Chicago bullpen that’s pitched to a rancid 5.60 ERA over the past 30 days. Milwaukee should have little issue scoring in bulk on Tuesday, and you won’t have to pay big money to get in on the action.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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