Here are my favorite DFS plays for Friday’s MLB main slate.
For additional picks across all MLB games, find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs ($9,400) – The Cubs have been somewhat of a challenge for left-handed pitching of late, but they’re also striking out a lot against lefties. Since June 15, the Cubs have a 26.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers — the fifth-highest mark in baseball during that span. That’s a tick worse than they’re season mark, but they still have one of the 10 highest strikeout rates against left-handers this season.
Anderson doesn’t have the high-end strikeout potential some of the pitchers on this slate do, but we’ve seen him go off a few times this season. More importantly, he doesn’t run into walk issues, which is something the Cubs rely on. Taking that away from a team that’s been the beneficiary of a .333 BABIP against lefties since mid-June should play well for Anderson, who’s eclipsed 23 DKFP in six of his last 10 starts.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels ($6,300) – How he’s still sub-$7K is beyond me. Wells’ recent 27.1-DKFP performance was likely a ceiling game, so don’t expect that Friday. However, his floor has made him a reliable value at this price tag. Excluding last outing, the Baltimore right-hander has posted 17.9-plus DKFP in four of his last six starts — last start makes it 5-for-7.
Moreover, he’ll see an Angels lineup that hasn’t been doing much against right-handed pitching of late. L.A. is 28th in wOBA and 18th in ISO against righties since mid-June. More importantly, they’ve registered an MLB-worst 30% strikeout rate against righties during this stretch. (What was that about not expecting another ceiling game?)
Other Option - Blake Snell ($7,900)
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals ($4,200) – While Kyle Schwarber ($5,500) has been lighting it up, Hoskins has been doing some significant damage himself. Hoskins’ double in Thursday’s game was his eighth extra-base hit against right-handed pitching in his last 20 games played. The righty carried a .300 ISO and .393 wOBA over his previous 60 plate appearances into the contest. To top it all off, Hoskins is 6-for-10 with a double and three home runs against Adam Wainwright ($8,400).
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals ($5,200) – Riley does more damage against lefties, but he’s picked on Erick Fedde ($6,900) a fair amount (7-for-18 with two doubles). More importantly, Riley has a .298 ISO and .451 wOBA against right-handed pitching across his last 62 plate appearances. He also has a 48.9% hard-contact rate, 26.7% line-drive rate and 35.6% fly-ball rate against righties during that span.
Michael Chavis, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($2,200) – Chavis has crushed left-handed pitching this season, Aaron Ashby ($7,400) being no exception. One of the six home runs Chavis has against left-handed pitching across 87 at-bats came off of Ashby. Those home runs have helped Chavis accrue a .253 ISO against lefties this season. That’s all been a result of him posting a 38.6% hard-contact rate against lefties.
Josh Donaldson, New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox ($3,800) – Donaldson is getting hot, having homered in consecutive games. As seen with his grand slam on Thursday, he does very well at Fenway Park. That was his eighth career home run in Boston and his 18th career extra base-hit in 140 career at-bats at Fenway — where he was hitting .307 before this ongoing series. With the Red Sox set for a bullpen day and Boston’s relievers being overworked of late, Donaldson might not be the only Yankee hitter to go off on Friday.
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($5,900) – The Mariners come into this series well-rested, having not played since Tuesday. Not that Rodriguez needs all that much of a break; he’s been cooking for a while now.
When you zoom in on his last 67 plate appearances against righties, Rodriguez has a .306 ISO and a 44% hard-contact rate. That will play well against Ross Stripling ($5,800), who has surrendered a 26.6% line-drive rate and 38.1% hard-contact rate to the last 55 right-handed hitters he’s seen.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics ($5,800) – Does much need to be said here? Alvarez is crushing it, and he destroys right-handed pitching. Left-handed hitters have a .401 wOBA and 25.5% line-drive rate against Paul Blackburn ($7,200) across his last six starts. To top it all off, Alvarez has three home runs in 10 at-bats against Blackburn.
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($3,400) – One might think Chad Kuhl ($6,700) would have decent road numbers given Coors is his home park, but left-handed hitters are getting to him away from Colorado, too. The last 54 lefties he’s faced have put together a 26.8% line-drive rate and a 36.6% hard-contact rate. Over his last 39 plate appearances against righties, Peralta has a 55.2% hard contact rate and just a 20.7% ground ball rate. Peralta is in a spot to do some serious work.
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels ($4,200) – Remember Reid Detmers ($6,600)? Well, he’s back from the minors with Michael Lorenzen being placed on the injured list. Detmers was giving up a lot of hard contact (34.5%) and limited ground balls (21.1%) to righties in the six games before his demotion. That plays very well into Santander’s hand. He hasn’t seen many lefties of late, but he’s posted a .263 ISO and 50% hard-contact rate against them since June 1.
TEAM TO STACK
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies – As mentioned when discussing Peralta, Kuhl is prone to getting in trouble against left-handed hitters. He gives up far too much quality contact for a pitcher who doesn’t keep the ball on the ground. On top of Peralta, Ketel Marte ($4,300), Daulton Varsho ($4,100) and Alek Thomas ($2,800) are ways to take advantage of Kuhl while saving some cash.
Other Option - Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
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