Tonight should be a fairly straight-forward 15-game featured slate, as there are really no weather concerns outside of Boston. Honestly, the biggest headache you’ll probably get on Tuesday is simply trying to differentiate between gas can pitchers priced below $7K.
Still, that’s why I’m here. Let’s break down some studs and values.
Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, $11,000 - For as underwhelming as the bottom of tonight’s pitcher pricing list is, the top is stuffed with Cy Young potential. In fact, the top seven arms on Tuesday’s slate all have incredible amounts of DFS upside. However, none possesses the ceiling of Rodon. The Giants’ lefty has been amazing of late, pitching to a 1.48 ERA and a 2.00 FIP across his past four starts. The big reason for his success? As always, a 33.3% strikeout rate. With Rodon humming along, I think there’s a good chance he dominates a struggling Tigers lineup. Detroit comes into this tilt ranking dead-last in baseball in ISO (.092) and wRC+ (64) in August. It also has the league’s highest strikeout rate within that span (28.6%).
Austin Voth, Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox, $6,300 - While it’s obviously been a little surprising, Voth’s been a completely different pitcher with the Orioles than he was with the Nationals. In the right-hander’s last seven appearances — six of which were starts — Voth’s maintained a 2.27 ERA across 31.2 innings of work, striking out 23.0% of batters and limiting opponents to a .262 wOBA. Voth at least presents a sturdy floor at a reasonable price, which makes him especially tantalizing in cash games. Still, with the White Sox sputtering to just a 95 wRC+ against RHPs in 2022, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Voth to bring back 3x value tonight.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, $5,800 - There is a chance it rains tonight in Boston, but the Jays own this slate’s highest non-Coors implied total — they need to be talked about. In particular, Guerrero stands out amongst his teammates, as the All-Star has been red-hot since the Midsummer Classic. In his last 119 plate appearances, Guerrero is slashing .315/.361/.568 with a 164 wRC+. Considering Josh Winckowski ($7,200) and his 5.21 FIP are making an emergency start at Fenway on Tuesday, I don’t see Vlad’s bat cooling off anytime soon.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins, $4,900 - I honestly can’t believe Bregman costs less than $5K on this slate. Even before we factor in his matchup with Aaron Sanchez ($5,900), Bregman has arguably been the hottest hitter in baseball this month, posting a 218 wRC+ since August 1. Alright. Now let’s talk Sanchez, who is somehow starting this contest for a team in the hunt for a Wild Card. Sanchez has surrendered a .697 slugging percentage and a .492 wOBA to the RHBs he’s faced in 2022. Woof.
Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, $3,600 - While this is mostly about hitting in the altitude at Coors Field, allow me to shine a light on Lowe’s recent success. Since the All-Star break, the infielder is batting an impressive .352 with a 176 wRC+ in his 134 plate appearances. That’s incredible production for an asset priced below $4K. Add in that LHBs have compiled a .392 wOBA off of German Marquez ($6,800) in Colorado this season, and you’ve got yourself a heck of a value play.
Vaughn Grissom, Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,300 - I don’t think Grissom’s going to continue producing at the level of a 202 wRC+, but with a price tag this low, it’s difficult to not keep going back to the well. It’s not like Grissom’s a one-dimensional DFS asset, either. He makes a surprising amount of contact for a 21-year-old and, across three levels, he’s racked up 29 steals in 2022. JT Brubaker ($7,200) has been perfectly fine the past couple months, but you can’t beat that kind of value.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels, $4,900 - I mentioned this last week, but Arozarena is hot at the moment, registering a .292 ISO and a 180 wRC+ so far in August. For the season as a whole, Arozarena has been at his best against left-handed pitching, sporting a 133 wRC+ across 97 plate appearances within the split. With Jose Suarez ($6,600) on the mound for the Angels tonight, this is the ideal time to use Randy.
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers, $4,800 - It’s rare to see Blackmon below $5K in a home game, though the veteran has been slumping since the All-Star break. Either way, I think you have to take advantage of this price tag on Tuesday. Dane Dunning ($6,900) is starting for the Rangers, and he’s had his issues this season with LHBs, allowing those within the split to post a .369 wOBA. Dunning’s also pitched to an ugly 5.08 ERA on the road in 2022, which doesn’t sound promising at Coors Field.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, $3,100 - The Diamondbacks have some sneaky stacking potential on tonight’s slate, as they have a bevy of left-handed bats to throw at Jonathan Heasley ($5,700). Why do you want LHBs against Heasley? Well, the RHP has allowed opposing lefties to compile a .591 slugging percentage and a .410 wOBA so far in 2022. Not only is McCarthy left-handed, he’s also batting .309 with a 123 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Not too shabby at all.
Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics, $2,300 - This says more about the Marlins than it does Anderson, but the 29-year-old has hit clean-up for Miami the past two times the team has faced a left-handed pitcher. It makes some sense, as Anderson is batting .283 with a 111 wRC+ within the split in 2022. Still, this is more about the presence of Zach Logue ($5,400), as the southpaw has surrendered a combined 13 earned runs in his past two appearances. Logue also owns a 6.19 xERA for the season as a whole.
TEAMS TO STACK
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins - You almost have to stack against Aaron Sanchez, who the Twins are starting out of sheer desperation tonight. The 30-year-old has posted a 7.68 ERA in his eight opportunities to start at the MLB level in 2022, which makes sense given that his average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and opponent hard hit rate (49.6%) are both in the bottom one percent of the league. Any Astros’ RHB is viable on Tuesday, but don’t forget about Yordan Alvarez ($5,700) and Kyle Tucker ($4,700).
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