The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan slate locks at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy NASCAR lineups here: NAS $350K Engineer [$100K to 1st] (Cup)
1. Kyle Larson ($10,700) — Back in his CGR days, the two-mile tracks were Larson’s best tracks. Larson’s lone win in the Next Gen car was at Fontana. He won three straight at Michigan from 2016 to 2017 — all in low-downforce cars.
2. Kyle Busch ($10,500) — Although his only win this season was at the dirt track at Bristol, Busch has statistically been the strongest driver at the intermediate tracks. Busch has the best Real Rating (my own statistical creation that comprehensively synthesizes a driver’s laps) since early May when the schedule shifted to classic ovals.
3. Chase Elliott ($10,900) — The hot streak is still alive. Sure, Elliott finished 16th last week, but he lined up on the front row with three laps left. The last intermediate track race was at Nashville, and Elliott won that race and scored the second-most fantasy points.
4. Ross Chastain ($10,000) — The JGR Toyotas make up four of the top-5 cars in Real Rating. Chastain is the party crasher at No. 4. It’s August. This is not a fluke. Chastain is elite and Trackhouse Racing is as real as it gets.
5. Martin Truex Jr ($9,500) — Similar to Kyle Busch, Truex is faster than he appears. He’s tied with Kyle Busch for the best Real Rating since early May. Unlike Busch, Truex does not have a win, but it’s been a strange season. Wins are not an indicator of outright speed in 2022.
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6. Denny Hamlin ($10,300) — Pocono is not comparable to Michigan, but JGR had speed at Pocono and sort of won. They’ve had speed everywhere of late. When the West Coast swing ended and the schedule normalized, Joe Gibbs Racing figured something out in their shop in Mooresville.
7. Christopher Bell ($9,000) — In 10 of the last 12 races, Bell has a top-10 driver rating. His three poles lead NASCAR. Qualifying will be a major factor at a Michigan track notorious for its limited passing opportunities.
8. Kevin Harvick ($8,400) — There is one person on Planet Earth that is sad to see the 550 package go. Kevin Harvick won three of the five Michigan races in the high-downforce package (three in a row from 2019-2020). However, he should be fine on Sunday. The last time NASCAR raced a low-downforce package at Michigan — Harvick won (2018).
9. Joey Logano ($8,800) — Nothing is wrong with Team Penske. The schedule got wonky for a minute (road courses and a plate race) and the team struggled with their setups at the flat tracks in New Hampshire and Pocono. In May when the schedule was mostly ovals, Logano and Ryan Blaney were at the top of the food chain.
10. Ryan Blaney ($9,300) — Michigan should be a bounce-back spot for Blaney. He won at Michigan last season because this track suits his driving style. Blaney is known for being exceptional at the flat-out, wide open tracks. Michigan is the epitome of a high-speed, never-lift track.
11. William Byron ($9,200) — In mid May, Byron was the No. 1 contender. Since the summer schedule started, the sensation has struggled. After his disappointing loss at Darlington, Byron’s average finish has been 21st, and he’s recorded just one top-10 finish in those 10 races.
12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700) — His season started off slow and it hasn’t been that great recently. There was a stretch in May when Stenhouse recorded four consecutive top-10 finishes. Those four races were at intermediate tracks. There is a chance that Stenhouse regains the magic at Michigan.
13. Todd Gilliland ($5,200)/Michael McDowell ($6,500) — Front Row Motorsports is not getting enough credit for what they are accomplishing in the Next Gen car. Michael McDowell is a top-15 driver at every track and sometimes a top-10 driver. Gilliland finishes inside the top 25 every week. Rookies are supposed to make mistakes, but Gilly is clean every weekend.
14. Justin Haley ($5,900) — On a point per dollar basis, Haley has been the third-best driver in DFS. Haley has a top-25 finish in each of the last eight races with an average finish of 18th.
15. Austin Hill ($6,400) — Sunday’s race should be a Sunday stroll compared to driving an Xfinity car in the minefield that is the Xfinity field. If Hill is a top-10 driver on Saturday, then he should be at least a top-20 driver in a less chaotic field with a tamer car.
Set your DraftKings fantasy NASCAR lineups here: NAS $350K Engineer [$100K to 1st] (Cup)
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