Well, the dust has settled after yet another crazy trade deadline in MLB. Teams are now loaded up for the final stretch of the season or, in the case of some clubs on tonight’s five-game featured slate, almost completely bereft of any talent at all. It’s a dynamic that surely will play into the next two months of DFS.
Let’s go over some studs and values for Wednesday evening.
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PITCHER
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics, $10,000 - While the Athletics have actually been swinging the bat better since the All-Star break, we’re still talking about a team that sits 29th in baseball in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHPs. That’s an issue with one of the best in the business taking the mound for the Angels. Ohtani has been a man possessed in his last six appearances, racking up double-digit strikeouts on each occasion. For the season as a whole, the reigning AL MVP is sporting a 2.45 ERA and a 2.36 FIP with a 36.4% strikeout rate. He’s a machine. He’s an animal. He’s simply not human.
Value
James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angeles, $5,700 - I know that sometimes it’s unwise to use both starters in the same game, but ask yourself this question: Aside from Ohtani, who’s the best hitter in these two lineups? Yeah. It’s pretty bleak. That’s why the Angels have posted just a 72 wRC+ across the past 30 days. This isn’t just about matchup, though. Kaprielian’s looked pretty good in his last five outings, maintaining a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout rate isn’t anything to write home about, yet with Los Angeles struggling to make contact the past few weeks, Kaprielian’s ceiling is higher than it’s ever been in 2022.
INFIELD
Stud
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs, $6,300 - It’s a massive price tag, but how can you argue against Goldschmidt’s incredible splits? The veteran is slashing .463/.550/.881 with a 292 wRC+ in his 81 plate appearances against left-handing pitching in 2022. Basically, so long as Justin Steele ($6,700) doesn’t intentionally walk him three times, Goldschmidt is in line for a huge performance.
Stud
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,100 - The Padres have some new toys to play with, but let’s not forget about Machado, who is sporting a 142 wRC+ across his 407 plate appearances this season. The infielder will draw a fantastic matchup on Wednesday in the form of Chad Kuhl ($5,000). The Rockies’ starter has been struggling since the beginning of July, pitching to an 8.71 ERA in his last five outings. Within that span, opposing RHBs are slashing a ghastly .367/.459/.767 off Kuhl.
Value
Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,000 - Between the losing and the injuries, there hasn’t been much for Giants fans to get excited about lately. However, Flores has acted as one of few bright spots. Since the beginning of July, the veteran infielder is slashing .280/.364/.581 with a .301 ISO and a 163 wRC+. Plus, while Julio Urias ($9,100) is generally not a man to be trifled with, Flores has an .816 OPS against LHPs for his career.
Value
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs, $2,000 - I know. You can’t use Pujols and Goldschmidt in the same build. It’s unfortunate, but look at it like this, you wouldn’t buy Fruit Loops and “Value Brand Fruity O’s” in the same shopping trip, right? However, those Fruity O’s still get the job done at a third of the price. In 71 plate appearances against lefties in 2022, Pujols is hitting .339 with a 152 wRC+. That’s a level of production that’s almost unheard of at the bare minimum. Dare I say he’s a better dollar-for-dollar play than Goldy?
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,400 - I assume Soto is going to be in the lineup tonight, at least that’s what the slate’s highest implied team total would suggest. In the simplest terms, Soto is now undervalued in this new offensive juggernaut. Not to mention, the 23-year-old was just starting to heat up for the Nationals. Going back to July 1, Soto is slashing .324/.515/.626 with a 220 wRC+. Now equipped with more protection, hopefully we see an even more aggressive Soto in San Diego. Why did Washington trade this guy again?
Stud
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies, $4,300 - If Soto, Josh Bell ($4,800) and Brandon Drury ($5,900) are all available, it’s difficult to guess what the Padres’ lineup might look like on Wednesday. Still, I’d have to think Profar finds his way in there against Kuhl. Not only do LHBs own a .365 wOBA off the RHP in 2022, but Profar has been much better this season as a left-handed hitter. Within the split, Profar possesses an .814 OPS and a 133 wRC+.
Value
Rafael Ortega, Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, $2,600 - If I’m being honest, I’m not sure why Ortega continues to bat leadoff for the Cubs against RHPs, but that’s not the point. The point is that he continues to bat leadoff for the Cubs against RHPs. Whatever. In his past five starts, Ortega has five hits, a home run and a stolen base. At a price this low, you’re banking on the premium batting order slot paying off in a big way.
Value
Yermin Mercedes, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $2,100 - Another lefty on the mound for the Dodgers likely means another game where Mercedes will hit in the three-spot for the Giants. In 47 plate appearances within the split in 2022, Mercedes is batting .311 with an .807 OPS and a 129 wRC+. Urias is tough, but at this close to the minimum, Mercedes supplies a decent amount of DFS upside.
TEAMS TO STACK
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies - I, like the rest of the world, will be loading up on the Padres. Call it narrative if you must, but the fact of the matter is Chad Kuhl has been reeling since the beginning of July, surrendering a wOBA of at least .440 to both RHBs and LHBs within that stretch of time. Soto, Bell, Machado, Profar and Jake Cronenworth ($4,600) are all great plays at their current price, while Trent Grisham ($2,900) could provide some value if he’s in the lineup this evening.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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