I know I tend to forget about the weather concerns of baseball as we get deeper and deeper into the summer months of the season, so allow me to take a moment to assess tonight’s 14-game slate. Apparently we’ve got some threat for rain in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and New York, which is 80% of the games that start right at lock. Fun!
Keep that in mind as we sort through some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins, $10,400 - This is an absolutely stacked pitching slate, so it’s difficult to get a feel of who the ownership might trend towards. My guess is Shohei Ohtani ($10,300) and his insane strikeout rate, but it could just as easily be Wheeler, considering his fantastic matchup against the Marlins. Miami has struggled tremendously since the All-Star break, registering a microscopic 77 wRC+ and a league-worst .098 ISO within that span. Meanwhile, Wheeler’s been lights out since May, producing a 2.12 ERA and a 28.2% strikeout rate across his last 14 appearances. The Marlins should prove to be no match for the right-hander.
Value
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, $7,500 - In cash games, I’d probably take a safer route with Jose Urquidy ($7,100), but I’m also a sucker for the raw upside of Garrett. The left-hander has been blessed with a soft schedule — his last four starts have been exclusively against the Pirates and the Reds — but a 39.8% strikeout rate over any four-game stretch is worthy of attention. Really, Garrett’s pitched well all season at the MLB level, as evidenced by a 3.42 xERA and a 3.04 FIP in his 11 appearances. The Phillies are a dangerous lineup, yet Garrett’s proven he can be up to the challenge.
INFIELD
Stud
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, $5,300 - This is a dream matchup for Riley. Not only are the Red Sox starting the left-handed Rich Hill ($6,300) — Riley owns a .495 wOBA and a 221 wRC+ versus southpaws in 2022 — but after Hill waits a Boston bullpen that sports a 7.15 ERA since the All-Star break. I’d consider Riley viable even if his price tag was up over $6K.
Stud
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, $4,400 - Gorman’s raw power at Coors Field is more than enough for me to be interested in the infielder’s services on Tuesday evening, yet the matchup is truly the cherry on top of the sundae. Ryan Feltner ($6,600) has had his issues in the big leagues in 2022, with a majority of his problems stemming from left-handed batters. To wit, LHBs have combined to produce a .396 wOBA off of the rookie, a direct result of averaging 2.79 home runs per nine. Yikes.
Value
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, $3,800 - While the Nationals aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse anymore, there is some value in what’s been left behind. For instance, Garcia is now primarily bats second in the team’s lineup against a right-handed pitcher. It makes sense. Garcia comes into Tuesday’s slate hitting .313 with a 112 wRC+ within the split. I like his chances to do some damage against Marcus Stroman ($7,200), who currently owns a 7.94 ERA pitching at Wrigley Field in 2022.
Value
Jose Miranda, Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,500 - The first thing you have to know about Miranda is that he’s red-hot right now. Since the All-Star break, the rookie is slashing .377/.441/.585 in his 59 plate appearances. He’s also primarily been hitting clean-up for the Twins in this span of time. The second thing you have to know about Miranda is that he crushes left-handed pitching. In fact, the 24-year-old has registered a .306 ISO and a 158 wRC+ within the split this season. Julio Urias ($9,000) isn’t your average LHP, but at this price, he doesn’t have to be.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Starling Marte, New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds, $5,200 - The only thing stopping this from being a perfect DFS spot is that this game isn’t at Great American Ball Park. Let’s start with Mike Minor ($5,800). The veteran southpaw has been destroyed by opposing RHBs in 2022, surrendering a .646 slugging percentage and a .435 wOBA within the split. That’s probably music to the ears of Marte, who happens to own a 160 wRC+ in his 122 plate appearances against LHPs this season. Don’t look now Spencer Strider, but the Mets are about to get “lucky” a lot more on Tuesday.
Stud
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals, $4,200 - So, here’s the thing about Suzuki: He currently owns a -44 wRC+ in August, which I honestly didn’t know was possible. However, he’s going to get things back on track against Paolo Espino ($5,100) tonight. Espino has been awful in his last seven starts, allowing opponents to hit .325 and average a whopping 3.3 home runs per nine. Not surprisingly, the journeyman owns a 6.90 ERA within this stretch of time.
Value
Lourdes Gurriel, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, $4,000 - With George Springer (elbow) on the IL, Gurriel has been handling the leadoff duties for the Blue Jays, and it’s not hard to figure out why. Since the beginning of June, Gurriel leads all qualified players in baseball with a .365 average. He also sports a 154 wRC+ within this span. That’s some impressive stuff. Gurriel will get an opportunity to keep the good times rolling on Tuesday against Kyle Bradish ($5,900), who has conceded a massive .442 wOBA to RHBs this season.
Value
Lars Nootbar, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, $2,300 - There’s not much explanation needed with this one. Coors Field. Ryan Feltner’s issues with LHBs. Nootbar’s near minimum price tag. It all comes together to make the young outfielder one of this slate’s best value options. Nootbar hasn’t been incredible by any means this season — he owns a 105 wRC+ against RHPs — but that doesn’t really matter given the circumstances.
TEAMS TO STACK
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles - Obviously, there’s some concern here with the new left field dimensions of Camden Yards, but this is truly a nightmarish matchup for the aforementioned Bradish. RHBs have combined to slash .361/.419/.617 off the 25-year-old in 2022, which is a problem, considering no team has more right-on-right plate appearances than Toronto. The Jays’ .340 wOBA within the split is also the best mark in baseball. Gurriel, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,000), Matt Chapman ($4,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,500) and Bo Bichette ($4,400) all have to be options for your lineups.
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