Here are my favorite DraftKings plays for Sunday’s 10-game MLB main slate.
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Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals, $10,800 — This is DFS 101: Pick good pitchers facing weak offenses. Nola has a 2.84 xFIP — a number that indicates that his success is of his own making. His O-Swing rate (chasing pitches outside of the zone) is 37% and that combined with a 71% F-Strike rate (first pitch strike) has resulted in a 29% K-rate. Strikeouts are the name of the game in DFS, and while Washington is not prone to excessive Ks, they are an inept offense — 96 wRC+, .310 wOBA, .134 ISO and 28% hard contact rate vs. right-handed pitching (that factors in their early season lineup that was much stronger).
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, $8,700 — This isn’t an absolute steal, but Singer is significantly cheaper than Nola. The strikeout upside remains in the favor of the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, but Singer has the best matchup. Detroit has a 72 wRC+, .266 wOBA, .106 ISO, 26% hard contact rate and 25% K-rate against right-handed pitchers. Singer is cheaper but he’s no slouch. He has a 3.37 xFIP and 47% ground ball rate, and his 21% called strike rate is the best on the slate, On July 13, he pitched six innings against the Tigers and allowed one earned run while compiling six strikeouts. On July 3, he only lasted 4.2 innings, but he struck out nine Tigers and was only charged with two earned runs.
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals $5,100 — Some do not believe that the moon landing happened. Others do not believe that Anibal Sanchez is a MLB pitcher. Every five days he is on the screen, but is it really him? Could it be a hologram or a deep fake? Hoskins isn’t having his best season, but he’s facing one of the worst pitchers of the last decade. Anibal Sanchez ($6,500) is allowing a .398 wOBA,.261 ISO, 39% hard contact rate, 2.8 HR/9, 15% K-Rate, 16% BB rate and 41% fly ball rate to right-handed batters. Those are bad numbers.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, $5,400 — “Laser” Bogaerts isn’t gong to change his approach. He could hit 40 home runs per season and drop his batting average a little, but that’s not Bogaerts’ bag. He’s a line-drive man. Launch angle is not his angle. His ISO is an unimpressive .148 vs. RHP, but he he has a healthy .352 wOBA and 127 wRC+. On Sunday, he’s in a favorable matchup with rookie Kyle Bradish (stats below in Refsnyder blurb).
Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds, $3,100 — The Reds are running out the clock and building for the future; Each day they will roll out a washed-up arm or a developing one. Either way, the Reds are going to be a regular target in September. On Sunday, it’s Dunn Day. Against right-handed batters, Justin Dunn ($6,200) is allowing a .349 wOBA, .346 ISO, 2.8 HR/9 and 51% fly ball rate. Hiura has a .419 wOBA, .316 ISO, 171 wRC+ and 47% hard contact rate vs. RHP.
Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, $3,200 — Domingo German ($8,600) is allowing a .336 wOBA,.202 ISO and 1.6 HR/9 to RHB. Paredes isn’t a consistent hitter as evidenced by his salary, but he does has have some power vs. RHP (.214 ISO). If there ever were a park and pitcher for Paredes to pop a pitch into the pumpkin patch, it’s Yankee Stadium. Enjoy the autumn alliteration.
Hunter Renfroe, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds, $5,000 — DUNN-Day! DUNN-Day! DUNN-Day! This Dunn-Day at the American Family Field, the Brewers’ bruisers welcome Justin Dunn to the “Good Land.” Bring your DFS family and friends to this one because you’re not going to want to miss out on the high-upside targets in this matchup. Renfroe has a .354 wOBA, .258 ISO, 127 wRC+ and 38% hard contact rate vs. RHP.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $6,500 — What can be said that hasn't been said before? The stats speak for themselves for both Judge — .462 wOBA, .384 ISO, 211 wRC+ and 38% hard contact rate — and for Luis Patino ($7,000) — .431 wOBA, .298 ISO, 2.2 HR/9 with just a 15% K-rate and a 43% fly ball rate vs. RHP. It’s also another game in the home run friendly Yankee Stadium.
Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, $2,700 — On Saturday, Refsnyder got the day off and the Red Sox scored 17 runs. Go figure. Refsnyder should be back in the lineup on Sunday, especially with Tommy Pham getting injured on Saturday. Against right-handed pitchers, Refsnyder has a .339 wOBA, 117 wRC+ and 47% hard contact rate. The Orioles’ starter, Kyle Bradish ($6,900), is a promising rookie but like most rookies, he has his foibles — .392 wOBA, .219 ISO, 35% hard contact rate, 2.1 HR/9 and 40% fly ball rate.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, $3,800 — Regardless of the stats, this is a cheap, left-handed leadoff hitter for the visiting team facing a right-handed pitcher that allows a 43% hard contact rate to lefties. As for stats, Greene went 2-for-6 with a run and RBI on Friday, and followed with a hit, run and walk on Saturday.
TEAMS TO STACK
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds — Chase Anderson was amazing last night (as predicted in yesterday’s article), but he’s not stretched out yet. That meant five innings from a 29th-ranked Reds bullpen (4.37 xFIP). The Reds pitching staff was already weakened by injuries and trades. Justin Dunn, and arms that are done, is a situation demanding a stack. Dunn struggles with both sides of the plate, so everyone is in play. It did not take a wizard to predict the Toronto stack would be successful on Saturday vs. Kohei Arihara, but it took guts to play the less notable players in the lineup. The same strategy could be vital with this popular stacking option on Sunday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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