We’ll have to dig suuuuuper deep to find storylines for tonight’s tilt between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. It’s not like we have a Super Bowl winning quarterback returning to the only NFL city he’s ever called home in his first game since being traded. It’s not like that QB has also been slandered by the local media within the past week, either. Alas. We’ll just have to make something up, I guess.
Let’s break it all down.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (DEN vs SEA)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Russell Wilson ($17,700 CP) - This isn’t all about narrative. This isn’t about letting Russ cook, either, though it should be noted that Wilson has been phenomenal the last couple years in September, registering a 21:1 TD/INT ratio since the beginning of 2020. No, this is simply about matchup. If there’s a glaring weakness with the Seahawks D/ST ($3,200), it’s in the secondary, specifically at corner. It was an issue last season when Seattle ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA, and it remains in issue in my opinion. Combine that with Wilson’s inclination to throw the deep ball — he led the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt in 2021 (9.9) — and you’ve got a recipe for a high-upside DFS asset. The revenge element is only icing on the cake.
Rashaad Penny ($11,700 CP) - With Kenneth Walker III ($2,200; hernia) unlikely to suit up for Monday’s contest, there doesn’t appear to be much competition for snaps in the Seahawks’ backfield. So, unless this script gets insanely out of hand, I think the path to 20 touches is pretty clear for Penny. Heck, just think back to the success Shane Waldron had spamming opposing defenses with Penny rushes at the end of 2021. In the final five weeks, Penny averaged 18.4 carries and 134.2 rushing yards per game. Four times he exceeded 130 yards on the ground within that same span and, though he only appeared in 10 contests, Penny finished the season managing 6.3 yards per attempt — the highest mark in the NFL. At even 70% of that efficiency, Penny will have little problem bringing back value at this modest price tag.
FLEX Plays
Courtland Sutton ($9,400) - It’s a long summer between football games and people need something to talk about. I understand that fully and don’t want to find myself getting too swept up in overly optimistic offseason fluff pieces. That said, there must be something to the idea that almost every one of the fluff pieces in question was about Wilson’s budding connection with Sutton — not Jerry Jeudy ($8,200). Sutton’s proved himself capable of big things when healthy, averaging 15.2 yards per reception for his career, despite inconsistent QB play. In fact, of the 107 players to garner at least 60 targets in 2021, Sutton’s aDOT of 15.4 yards was the highest of the group. Now that he finally has a pivot with the talent to take advantage of those routes, the sky is the limit.
Broncos D/ST ($4,800) - In general, I think this is going to be a low scoring affair, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think that the Seahawks’ offense is primarily responsible for that belief. In fact, the only team that came into Week 1 with a lower implied total than Seattle was Chicago. That’s not exactly the sort of company you want to be keeping. The presence of Geno Smith ($8,600) obviously looms large. In 45 career games (34 starts), Smith has thrown 37 interceptions and fumbled 22 times. He’s also completed an underwhelming 58.8% of his attempts, while averaging a microscopic 4.8 adjusted net yards per throw. Smith is the exact type of quarterback that raises the ceiling of D/ST.
Fades
Javonte Williams ($10,200) - I just have to see it first. It’s as simple as that. Yes, Williams appears to have all the talent in the world, but that doesn’t mean much in fantasy without volume. Nathaniel Hackett was on record earlier this week that you want to “ride the hot hand,” while Justin Outten has stated that Williams and Melvin Gordon III ($7,400) will be on a “pitch count” all season. In 2021, Williams exceeded 15 carries in a game on only two occasions. He and Gordon finished the year with an identical number of rushing attempts (203), and it was the latter that led the Broncos in red zone carries (37). Do I think Williams is the better back? Of course. However, if this committee in 2022 is similar to what we’ve already seen play out, there’s no way you can justify spending over $10K on the sophomore.
THE OUTCOME
In terms of handicapping this contest, I feel more strongly about going under the total than I do picking a side of the spread. Seattle should struggle to score points against a very good Denver defense, and even if the Seahawks can move the ball, I anticipate they’ll attempt to control the clock with the bruising Penny. Still, look for Wilson to play well enough to win in his return to Seattle.
Final Score: Denver 24, Seattle 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (DEN vs SEA)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.