Thursday is a tricky slate because of its size, but there a few lineups we can lean on while getting the pitching options we want for DraftKings’ MLB main slate.
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Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($9,400) – The Pirates may be coming off a high-scoring affair, but they’ve largely struggled against right-handed pitching of late. Their .148 ISO since August 15 is middle of the pack, and their 24.8% strikeout rate during that span is among the highest in all of baseball.
That all plays perfectly for Carrasco, who just got back on track after struggling in back-to-back performances. The right-hander’s home-road splits are relatively even, but his 3.80 home ERA is quite a bit better than his road mark (4.42). Also, Carrasco’s 3.20 home FIP indicates he’s due for some better days.
Drey Jameson, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres ($4,000) – It is a gross slate for value pitching, which is why we’re going all the way to the bottom of the pile here. The right-hander’s Triple-A ERA isn’t exactly pretty, but it’s well-documented how hitter friendly the parks are in the Pacific Coast League.
Jameson brings decent strikeout potential for the price range, having punched out 109 in 114 innings at Triple-A this year. Also, he doesn’t create more challenging situations for himself, having only dished out 42 walks at the Triple-A level throughout 2022. Also worth noting: The Padres are one of seven teams with an ISO below .120 against right-handed pitching since mid-August.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds ($5,900) – While Arenado’s season-long power numbers have been better against left-handed pitching, he’s still done quite well against righties throughout 2022. More importantly, right-handers have been his preferred matchup over the past month.
During that span, Arenado has a .228 ISO and .316 average against righties. He’s also only posted an 8.1% strikeout rate against them during this span while generating a load of quality contact — 24.7% line-drive rate, 41.1% fly-ball rate and 37% hard-contact rate. Moreover, he’s taken Chase Anderson ($5,300) deep four times and laced one double in 29 at-bats.
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($6,100) – Although most of Lindor’s recent success has come against left-handed pitching, JT Brubaker ($7,800) is someone to attack with left-handed hitters. What should play well for Lindor is how often he’s hitting fly balls over his last 88 chances against righties (40.9%) and how often Brubaker has been giving up flies to lefty bats in his last six starts (47.4%).
Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds ($3,300) – Although Donovan hasn’t been hitting for much power against right-handed pitching, that’s undoubtedly been his preferred matchup (25.2% line-drive rate, .290 average). The rookie did slide down from the No. 1 spot in the order last game, but now he’s now in a run-producing spot rather than a run-scoring one. He should have plenty of chances to drive some in against Anderson, who has given up nine earned runs in his four appearances this year.
Jose Miranda, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ($3,300) – On an odd slate for first baseman, Miranda provides a way to save while getting a bat that’s in a run-producing spot. He’ll also face a left-hander who’s getting smoked by righty bats in Daniel Lynch ($6,700). Across his last five starts, right-handed hitters have a .405 wOBA, 29.2% line-drive rate and 34.2% hard-contact rate against Lynch.
Other Option - Stephen Vogt ($2,600)
He’s made loads of quality contact against righties over the past month (23.3% line-drive rate, 43.3% fly-ball rate and 40% hard-contact rate), which has led to a .229 ISO and .314 average against them. While James Kaprielian ($6,300) has done well against lefties of late, he’s still giving up a lot of fly balls to them (46.7%).
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,900) – The Mets’ leadoff man comes into Thursday sporting a .182 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. That’s rock-solid for someone not known for their power. Given his recent form within the split, the fact he’s in a run-scoring spot and Brubaker isn’t great against lefties, Nimmo is one of the multiple Mets you can turn to on Thursday.
Aledmys Diaz, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics ($3,800) – Diaz picked up right where he left off before the injury, logging a pair of hits on Tuesday. After getting the day off on Wednesday, he’s still just under $4K, making him one of the best value options on this small slate.
Kaprielian also provides a great matchup despite it being righty-on-righty. Across his last six starts, righty bats have a .444 wOBA, 41% hard-contact rate and 57.9% fly-ball rate against the Oakland right-hander.
Stone Garrett, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres ($2,600) – As long as Arizona is facing a left-hander, Garrett is one of the value plays worth considering nightly. He’s 9-for-22 with a home run and two doubles against them so far at the MLB level. That’s largely been the result of his whopping 52.9% fly-ball rate against them.
TEAM TO STACK
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – At almost every position, there’s a Mets player worth considering Thursday. Not only do lefties have a 47.4% fly-ball rate against Brubaker in his last six starts, but they’ve also posted a 50% hard-contact rate against him during that span.
Lindor and Nimmo stand out as the high-priced bats to back, but Daniel Vogelbach ($4,100) and Eduardo Escobar ($3,900) can absolutely provide value on Thursday. Also, James McCann ($3,500) may not be left-handed, but he’s gone to work against Brubaker in the past, launching two home runs (plus one single) in just five plate appearances.
Other Options - Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
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