clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 3 2022 Top High-Upside DFS Contrarian Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Stacks

Game Stack: Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Kyler Murray ($7,300) — Cooper Kupp ($9,900) — Greg Dortch ($4,300) — Eno Benjamin ($4,700)

While it’s the Cardinals who have been crucified for their performance on defense this season, the Rams have been equally as bad in some respects, especially in the secondary where they’ve allowed a 75% completion rate and five passing TDs. Arizona remains thin at WR but Greg Dortch remains highly affordable on DraftKings and has looked competent out of the slot. Dortch’s target share went down in Week 2 but he’s still 11 for 13 in target conversion from Kyler Murray this season and should continue to see targets consistently as the primary slot receiver in this Kliff Kingsbury offense.

Dortch’s cheap price will also make it easy for us to stack him with Murray, who is coming off a signature comeback performance. Murray is averaging 23.7 DKFP through two weeks, and was active as a scrambler against the Rams last season — averaging 50 yards per game on the ground in two regular season games. With James Conner (questionable) trending poorly right now, I’d look for Murray to take on a heavier load as a rusher but also for a somewhat pass-heavy approach from Arizona — which should make Eno Benjamin a great target to include in any Kyler-centric stack. Benjamin is essentially playing the Chase Edmonds role in this offense in 2022, giving him plenty of PPR upside in a game where the Arizona +3.5 spread has Murray projected to again be throwing late into the contest.

On the other side of the ball, it is best not to overthink things. Outside of Allen Robinson’s one goal line fade last week, he’s been a relative ghost in this offense and Vance Joseph’s defense has traditionally been quite good at guarding against TEs (sorry Tyler Higbee). Stacking the cheaper Cardinals allows you to fit in Cooper Kupp, who has demanded a mammoth 40% target share to date and put up 13 catches for 123 yards and a TD in Week 14 against Arizona last season. He’s the only Ram you need worry about here.

QB/WR Stack: Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Derek Carr ($5,900) — Davante Adams ($8,400)

The Raiders’ passing game was of the biggest bust spots for daily fantasy from Week 2. Davante Adams connecting on just two of seven targets against a weaker Cardinals secondary was far from ideal, but the performance will also be sure to draw attention off him for Week 3 in what is another prime matchup. The Tennessee secondary has already allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs and gave up an absurd 12 of 14 connection rate to Stefon Diggs last week, who also grabbed three TDs. We also should have a better game script for Adams to take advantage of as he was almost ignored for three quarters against Arizona after the Raiders took a quick two-score lead.

The spread this week has been fluctuating between Raiders -2.0/-2.5 points, so a close game where we see Derek Carr passing late into the fourth quarter is likely. The Raiders have thrown the ball on over 70% of their plays in 2022 and are facing off against a Tennessee team that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the QB position this year. Adams and Carr were bad chalk last week but with both players having low sentiment and a bottom 10 secondary to play against, they’re projecting as a savvy GPP stack in Week 3.


Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks ($5,500)

The Falcons’ offense hasn’t featured a ton of passing thus far, with Atlanta ranking just 28th in pass play percentage at just a 48% clip. Given that Philadelphia ranked dead last in the league last year in pass play percentage at 51%, we should see Atlanta slowly start to uncork more passes as the year goes on and normalize more towards the league average. That’s good news for Marcus Mariota’s fantasy value as he’s already averaging right around 18.50 DKFP per game through two weeks — while averaging 9 carries and 44 yards rushing per game.

Mariota also has elite targets to work with in Drake London ($5,800) and Kyle Pitts ($4,800) — not to mention Cordarrelle Patterson ($5,800) out of the backfield — so cheap yards could pile up quickly as the attempts go up. The Seahawks were one of the best defenses against the rush last year and but their linebackers and safeties have struggled in the middle of the field against TEs and allowed 9 TDs to the position last year. Look for Mariota to post season-high marks in yards and passing TDs against Seattle this week.


Running Back

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000)

AJ Dillon has played on over 50% of the snaps for the Packers and averaged 17 touches per game through two weeks. While Aaron Jones ($7,400) was the one who broke out as a receiver last week, it’s highly encouraging that Dillion has carved out an almost equal role in the passing game with a higher targets per route run rate (TPRR) than Jones — despite Jones running about 15% more routes.

Where Dillon has beaten out Jones, however, is in the rushing game where he commanded 15 total carries last week with the Packers well ahead. The game this week has a close point spread but Tampa Bay is nursing some major injuries (on both sides of the ball) and it’s notable for Dillon's upside that run-stopping specialist Akiem Hicks missed practice on Wednesday. Tampa’s graded out just average thus far against the rush, regardless, allowing 4.6 yards per carry thus far on the season (just 19th on the year), making this a better than advertised spot for the Packers’ rushing attack. It’s an underrated breakout spot for a player who should thrive in the Packers’ new look offense all season long.


Wide Receiver

Top end: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts ($5,500)

The Chiefs offense heads into Indianapolis against the struggling Colts this week with a 27.25 implied team total, which is the third biggest on the slate. After torching the Cardinals in Week 1 with a strong first half, Smith-Schuster took a step back against the Chargers’ more elite coverage unit. Expect that kind of up-and-down production from Schuster this season, who likely isn’t going to demand heavy targeting like Tyreek Hill against more elite coverage. Luckily for Schuster — and us — the Colts’ slot coverage this year has been terrible. Through two weeks, they’ve allowed a perfect 9 for 9 conversion rate on targets directed towards opposing teams’ primary slot receivers (Chris Moore and Christian Kirk) and also ceded two TDs in the red zone to Kirk last week. Expect Schuster to perk back up this week. He’s got a great shot at grabbing his first TD and pushing to be one of the fantasy leaders in a game that should feature lots of points.

Value: DeVante Parker, New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)

This week will go a long way to showing whether DeVante Parker has any upside for fantasy purposes in the Patriots offense. The Ravens’ secondary got torched last week by the Miami wideouts and has already allowed a league-leading 45 receptions to opposing WRs this season (the most in the league by 10 receptions). For daily fantasy purposes, Jakobi Meyers ($5,000 - questionable) is likely to see his ownership spike in this spot, but has been dealing with a knee injury. Despite the lack of production, Parker is second on the team in snaps played and has an 85% route participation rate through two weeks. With a salary that’s dipped to $4K flat and extremely low sentiment, he makes sense as a boom/bust filler for big-field GPP lineups.


Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks ($4,800)

Kyle Pitts’ line of four catches on 10 targets for the season is one of the largest disappointments of the 2022 fantasy season thus far. His chances of ending the year as a dominant player at his position may seem bleak, but his athletic profile alone means we should still expect numerous spike weeks to occur for daily fantasy purposes in 2022. This week he faces a Seattle Seahawks team whose linebacker and safety crew allowed a 75% completion rate to opposing TEs last year and the third most fantasy points to the position as well. So far in 2022, Seattle has allowed six completions to opposing TE1s on seven targets and a 38-yard TD to Ross Dwelley last week. Add in the fact that Pitts should get “squeaky wheel” volume after a three-target day against Los Angeles — where Atlanta was down three TDs early — and you have the makings for a prime fantasy breakout. Buy low on Pitts in Week 3 lineups.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans ($3,400)

The Bears played in a monsoon in Week 1 and threw the ball 11 times in Week 2. Their passing offense isn’t going to revamp into the greatest show on turf anytime soon, but brighter days will be ahead for some of their key players, especially when the volume picks up. Cole Kmet should be a player who benefits when we finally do see some positive regression as he’s played on over 80% of the offensive snaps with a route participation of well over 80% as well. Seeing him pop up against a weaker team like the Texans with a decent game wouldn’t be overly shocking. His salary remains ultra-affordable, and with David Montgomery ($5,900) trending as a high-profile chalk play, he makes for a cheap leverage target in GPP lineups where you are punting at TE.


Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles ($2,900) at Washington Commanders

The Eagles’ defense put up a 12.0 point game on DraftKings — without scoring a defensive or special teams TD — in Week 2. While Carson Wentz has been great for fantasy purposes thus far he’s also faced two of the weakest secondaries in the league and seems ripe for some regression. His positive sentiment is also likely to keep the ownership low on Philadelphia’s DST, which we love for big fields.

Philadelphia has great bracket corners and an efficient offense that will eventually pressure Wentz into taking shots downfield. Expect the Eagles’ defense to be one of the leaders in turnovers all season with it eventually leading to some monster weeks when those INTs go for pick-6s. Still affordable at under $3K, don’t be afraid to squeeze them in this week if you have enough leftover salary.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.