The weather situation for tonight is pretty incredible. We have rain in the forecast in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Detroit, yet all three of those contests get going prior to 7:00 p.m. ET, and are therefore not on this evening’s 12-game featured slate. It’s nice to not have to worry about tarps. I’m a man with simple pleasures.
Let’s find some studs and values.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $9,900 - I’ll be curious to see how much attention Snell gets on a slate with a lot of pitching talent. Obviously, the Dodgers are not the ideal opponent, yet Los Angeles has been pretty liberal with days off since clinching the NL West. It’s doubtful Snell has to face the Dodgers at full strength on Tuesday. However, even if he does, the former Cy Young Award winner is in a serious groove at the moment. In Snell’s last five starts, he’s maintained otherworldly marks in FIP (1.68) and strikeout rate (36.4%). He’s also only surrendered five home runs since the All-Star break.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, $6,100 - This is the exact same price Bradish was listed at last week before collecting 42.3 DKFP against the Astros. I’m pretty shocked he didn’t receive even a little bump, but a sleepy algorithm is our gain. It’s not like Bradish is a one-trick pony, either. In his last six starts, the rookie has held opponents to a .155/.218/.202 slash line, all while producing his own 1.64 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. The Red Sox have a dangerous lineup and Fenway is a scary place to pitch, but I’m willing to overlook those factors considering how locked in Bradish seems at the moment.
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $5,100 - All eyes are going to be on Aaron Judge ($6,200) this evening, but it’s Rizzo who you want in your lineups. Not only has the veteran looked healthy since coming off the IL, posting a .276 ISO and a 143 wRC+, but it’s been left-handed bats that have given Jose Berrios ($6,300) the most issues in 2022. In fact, Berrios has surrendered a jaw-dropping 2.16 home runs per nine within the split. Combine that with the RHP’s underwhelming 5.1% swinging strike rate in September, and Rizzo’s in a fantastic spot.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, $5,100 - Ideally, you’d be looking to use Riley against a left-handed opponent, but it’s not like he’s been bad in right-on-right matchups this season. In 501 plate appearances within the split, Riley’s sporting a .227 ISO and a 124 wRC+. Still, the All-Star’s viability is far more about the identity of the RHP he’s facing on Tuesday and less so about his handedness. Paolo Espino ($5,400) has struggled when moving from the bullpen to Washington’s rotation, as evidenced by a 5.08 FIP and a HR/9 of 1.95.
Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,700 - Donovan doesn’t have a ton of raw power, but his ability to get on base is extraordinary. The infielder comes into tonight’s matchup with Adrian Houser ($6,000) in possession of a .389 OBP and a 126 wRC+ this season. It’s the main reason that the Cardinals have often had Donovan bat leadoff when the team is facing a right-handed opponent. Considering LHBs are hitting .306 off of Houser in 2022, I’d anticipate Donovan bringing back value at this modest price.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, $3,700 - This isn’t a slight of Michael Wacha ($7,900), who has been phenomenal this season for the Red Sox. No, this is simply a case of Henderson continuing to be too cheap. The rookie sensation has been crushing right-handed pitching since making his MLB debut, slashing .306/.383/.556 with a 164 wRC+ in his first 81 plate appearances within the split. That’s insane production, and even if he’s unable to tag Wacha, he’ll surely do some damage against a Boston bullpen that owns a league-high 5.59 ERA since the All-Star Game.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,800 - This matchup almost seems unfair. Zach Davies ($6,500) has struggled with the long ball in the season’s second half, conceding 2.00 opponent home runs per nine within that span of time. Davies has also had a difficult time limiting contact from opposing LHBs, as he’s struck out just 13.4% of the left-handed hitters he’s seen in 2022. I’m going to assume that combination of factors ends poorly against Alvarez, a lefty adonis who sits 100th percentile in average exit velocity (95.4) and expected wOBA (.463).
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, $4,700 - Harris likely wrapped up the NL Rookie of the Year Award last week, when teammate Spencer Strider was placed on the 15-day IL. The truth of the matter is, he might’ve had it on lock prior to the RHP’s injury. Harris has been unstoppable against right-handed pitching in 2022, hitting .328 with a 167 wRC+ within the split. He’s also stolen 20 bases this season, so there’s multiple ways he can terrorize Espino on Tuesday evening.
Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves, $3,400 - Going back to the beginning of June, Thomas has posted a .221 ISO and a 128 wRC+ in his 141 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Basically, he’s been red-hot and that’s a massive part of why the Nationals moved the outfielder into their everyday leadoff spot. Tonight, Thomas draws another southpaw in Kyle Muller ($7,400), who has allowed nine earned runs in his 7.2 innings at the MLB level in 2022.
Oswaldo Cabrera, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $2,800 - The Yankees don’t have many left-handed bats, but they’re all viable tonight against Berrios. The veteran RHP has surrendered 51 opponent barrels in 2022, which is a big reason why he ranks in the bottom six percent of the league in expected slugging percentage (.473). Cabrera, a switch-hitter, has hit all four of his career home runs as an LHB.
TEAMS TO STACK
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals - It’s probably pretty easy to see why the Braves are the lone club on tonight’s slate with an implied team total above five runs. They’re not just facing Espino, they’re also facing a Nationals’ bullpen that ranks near the bottom of the league in strikeout rate the past 30 days (17.8%). Atlanta is going to put up some crooked numbers on Tuesday. Use all the big names and keep an eye on Travis d’Arnaud ($4,400) and Eddie Rosario ($2,400), who are underpriced.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.