Seven. That’s how many games we have in this particular session. We are truly blessed to live in this country, not one ruled by Lenin, allowing some to make DFS a profitable profession. Even though we are constantly learning lessons, I reckon that you continue to traverse and explore the landscape like Magellan. It is an obsession with expression. Which players to select and how to construct lineups are the daily questions but, hopefully, the thoughts from my melon can help transport you to DFS heaven.
DET and PHO are playing the first leg of a back-to-back. ORL is the only team that played last night.
Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Stephen Curry and Deandre Ayton are all questionable as of the time of this writing. Whether they play or sit could have a massive effect on the slate, so keep abreast of all the news @dklive.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 229 - CHA/TOR (230), ORL/POR (229) and PHO/GS (229.5). There are two double-digit spreads - PHI -12.5 over DET and GS -11.5 over PHO. There are three games with a spread below 3 points - MIA -2.5 over OKC, CLE -2.5 over UTA and LAC -1 over DAL. UTA is the only home dog on tonight’s slate.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz ($9,600) – The Cavs and Jazz played a month ago in Cleveland, so this won’t be the first time these teams have met since Mitchell was traded. He went for 28.5 DKFP in that contest as the Cavs blew out the Jazz by 23 points. I’d expect a closer game this time, and DK Sportsbook has the spread at 2.5 points in favor of Cleveland.
I don’t usually saunter down Narrative Street, but when it aligns with other stats, then I have no problems traversing down it. The Jazz are 11th in offensive pace, so the environment should be a good one. In addition, Utah is 27th in defensive rating while boosting the FPPM to shooting guards by a league-leading 24.45% above league average.
Mitchell has exceeded points expectations only 30% of the time this season, and the probable range is in the 40 to 50 DKFP area. That said, he has exceeded 50 DKFP 12 times this season with four above 60 and a high of 102.5.
James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons ($10,400) – These teams just played on Saturday with Harden triple-doubling for 57.75 DKFP. That game was in Detroit while this one will be in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid ($11,200) has missed the last three games and is questionable for tonight. If he returns, then Harden will cede some usage but he should still perform due to his ability to contribute in every statistical category. Detroit has boosted the FPPM to point guards by 7.29% above league average with a 10.17% increase in three-pointers. If Harden makes his shot attempts, then 60 or 70-DKFP burgers are on the menu.
Other Options - Luka Doncic ($12,600) if he plays, Damian Lillard ($9,500)
Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers ($5,700) – Killian us softly with his play. Since returning from suspension, Hayes has averaged 34.8 minutes and put up 33.5, 40.75 and 47.5 DKFP. He’s attempted 12, 14 and 17 shots. The efficiency has been amazing over the last two games in particular, which is something that he usually struggles with, so the point production will likely not be maintained. That said, he’s dishing out dimes and racking up steals so Hayes should be able to pay off his salary.
Other Options - Duane Washington Jr. ($4,200), Isaac Okoro ($3,600), Cole Anthony ($5,000), Hamidou Diallo ($3,500), Gabe Vincent ($3,300), Victor Oladipo ($5,300), Landry Shamet ($5,000)
Christian Wood, Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers ($8,600) – Since Wood was inserted into the starting lineup 12 games ago, he’s averaged 20.3 points, 13.5 shot attempts, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.3 blocks. He’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in eight of those games with three with at least 50 and a high of 62.5 DKFP. The Clippers have boosted the FPPM to centers by 5.04% above league average with a 25.8% pop in three-pointers. Wood has attempted 6.3 shots from downtown over the recent stretch and converted 39% of them.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets ($6,600) – It’s been quite the ride for Barnes this season. He started the season as a $6,000 player then spiked up to $8,000. Since then, he’s dripped down to where we are now. He’s dealt with injuries and new responsibilities, which affected his play, but it looks like he’s starting to groove now. Over the last eight games, he’s gone for at least 40 DKFP five times. He plays a ton of minutes and contributes a little something in every statistical category. In addition, the game environment should be a juicy one as the Hornets are first in offensive pace and 22nd in defensive rating since LaMelo Ball ($10,000) returned to action 14 games ago.
Other Options - Jimmy Butler ($8,900), Gary Trent Jr. ($6,100), OG Anunoby ($6,400)
Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers ($5,100) – Stewart averages 0.92 DKFP per minute and usually operates in a stretch-big capacity. With Jalen Duren out, though, Stewart slid down to center last game and grabbed 13 rebounds while scoring 20 points. Embiid did not play in that contest, so his return would change the calculus for sure. That said, he should play over 30 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble and exceed his point expectations.
Other Options - Norman Powell ($4,900), Kenrich Williams ($3,900)
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets ($10,100) – Siakam almost checks every box. Plays a lot? Averaging close to 40 minutes per game over the last 10 games. Scores? Gone over 25 in eight of the last 10 with a high of 52. Rebounds? At least seven in seven of the last 10. Dishes out dimes? At least five in all but two of the last 10 contests. Yes, he racks up steals and blocks shots too. Probably the only deficiency is that he isn’t a huge threat to triple-double on any given night, as he’s only done it five times in his career. Still, the overall package is B. U. T. ful. As mentioned in the Barnes section above, the game environment and matchup should be a juicy one for fantasy.
Mason Plumlee, Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors ($6,000) – Plumlee has exceeded points expectations 80% of the time this season and put up over 40 DKFP in three of the last five games. What a time to be alive. Since Ball has returned to the mix, he’s scored at least 20 DKFP in all 14 games and failed to exceed 30 DKFP just four times. It’s time for Hollywood to write up the Plumlee Millionaire script.
Other Options - Joel Embiid ($11,200) if he plays, Christian Wood ($8,600), Jusuf Nurkic ($6,100)
Orlando Robinson, Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,100) – Bam Adebayo has been ruled out so Robinson could enter the starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t, he should play for at least 20 minutes. Robinson is averaging 0.92 DKFP per minute. He has produced when given time this season, going for 26.25, 30, 35.75 and 21.25 DKFP in 32, 36, 27 and 18 minutes respectively. He is just too cheap for the expected role he should have tonight.
Other Options - Isaiah Stewart ($5,100), Jock Landale ($3,200) if Ayton is out
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.