Welcome to a very spoooooooky edition of NBA Values. You know, because it’s Friday the 13th? This is actually one of just two Fridays that will fall on the 13th of the month in 2023, with the other coming in — you guessed it — October. That’ll be an even spoooooookier edition of NBA Values, if the season has in fact started by then. It’s currently unclear.
Let’s dive into this nine-game slate.
PG/SG Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks, $4,300
With Thursday’s news that Tyrese Haliburton (elbow/knee) will be sidelined at least the next two weeks due to injury, Nembhard suddenly finds himself with rather large shoes to fill. He won’t be alone in attempting to fill Haliburton’s void — T.J. McConnell ($4,100) will surely be asked to assist the rookie guard — yet it was Nembhard who shouldered quite the burden the last time Haliburton was forced to sit. That was back on Dec. 4 and Dec. 5. In those two contests, Nembhard led the Pacers in minutes (78) and was second on the team in field goal attempts (33), all while averaging a very respectable 1.27 DKFP per minute logged. Considering Nembhard has already played a team-high 35.8 minutes across Indiana’s past four games, with Haliburton active, I think there’s a chance we see the Canadian flirt with the 40 minute mark on Friday. In what should be an exceedingly uptempo matchup, there’s a lot to like with Nembhard.
SF/PF KJ Martin, Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, $3,800
While the absence of Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) will likely most affect the likes of Jalen Green ($7,600) and Alperen Sengun ($6,900), there will be some value opened up in Houston’s rotation. Eric Gordon ($3,900) is likely the safest option due to his secure shot volume, yet I’ll bank on the upside of Martin for tonight’s slate. Whereas Gordon brings little to the table beyond points, Martin gets involved on the glass, with five or more rebounds in four of the Rockets’ past five contests. Also, with Porter Jr. only able to log 10.3 minutes of action in Wednesday’s loss to the Kings, it was Martin who started the second half in his place and it was Martin who led Houston in bench minutes with 26.8. Martin’s 24.4% usage rate ranked second on the team, as well. This same matchup produced 250 points less than 48 hours ago. If we see a similar script, Martin could be in store for 6x or 7x value.
SF/PF Josh Okogie, Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, $4,100
It’s difficult to derive too much meaning from the Suns’ blowout loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday, but the simple fact of the matter is Phoenix just doesn’t have that many healthy bodies. Someone has to log an insane amount of minutes, and against Denver, it was Okogie who was on the court wearing a Suns jersey the longest. That translated into the former second-round pick registering team-highs in rebounds (9) and assists (5), while sitting second on the team in field goal attempts (13) and points (14). Okogie’s usage will obviously be affected if Deandre Ayton ($8,000; ankle) is able to play through his questionable tag on Friday, but that’s the lone bit of roster optimism on the horizon. Devin Booker (groin), Chris Paul (hip), Cameron Johnson (knee), Cam Payne (foot) and Landry Shamet (hip) are still sidelined. Maybe Okogie doesn’t drop 33.75 DKFP in consecutive games, however, the opportunity is there at a reasonable price tag.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.