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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for the Divisional Round

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Playoffs?! We talkin’ bout playoffs?! Indeed we are. The sidelines are filled with some of the league’s brightest stars. No Derek Carr. Ouch, as a Raiders fan, that left a scar. I need someone to strum love songs on the guitar. Anyways, three more wins and one of the remaining teams will be lighting up the cigars while adoring fans gawk from afar.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points vs. the Jaguars at home, with the total at a slate-high 53. The Eagles are favored by 7.5 points vs. the Giants at home, with the total at 48. The Bills are favored by 5 points vs. the Bengals at home, with the total at 48.5. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points at home vs. the Cowboys, with the total being at a slate-low 46.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for this week’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,000 — The Jaguars are 11th in rush defense DVOA and 30th in pass defense. The path of least resistance aligns perfectly with what the Chiefs do, which is put the ball in their star quarterback’s hands and have him slice and dice like a Benihana chef. Oh, did I forget to mention that the Jags are 29th in adjusted sack rate? My bad.

These teams met in Week 10. The game was also played in Kansas City and Mahomes went 26-of-35 for 331 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception. That was good for 35.1 DKFP.

Playing in a hostile, playoff atmosphere will be tough for a young Jaguars squad. That said, they are riding a five-game winning streak and are familiar with the Arrowhead experience. The Chiefs defense plays much better at home, but it’s within the range of outcomes that the Jags put up points in this one. Mahomes can access a ceiling game on any given Sunday, but the probabilities increase if the Jags can force him to maintain aggression.

This game has the highest total on the slate so it will not be a sneaky option. Ownership will be huge on a four-game slate, and late swap could be big since there are two games on both Saturday and Sunday. All of these things have to be factored in.

Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($7,600)

Value

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys, $5,400 — On the season, Dallas was 5th in rush defense DVOA and 3rd in pass defense while being 2nd in adjusted sack rate. Towards the end of the season, though, Trevor Lawrence toasted them for 318 yards and 4 touchdowns and Gardner Minshew went for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The 49ers are one of the most balanced teams in the league with a plethora of playmakers. Despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of blitz rate, the Cowboys flow fast and often overrun plays, which makes them susceptible to misdirection, something Kyle Shanahan will likely exploit. That should make things a little easier for Purdy, allowing cleaner windows and seams for his playmakers to do what they do best, which is make plays.

Other Options – Trevor Lawrence ($6,000)


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Running Back

Stud

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys, $8,000 — Since joining the 49ers back in Week 7, McCaffrey has rushed over 20 times just once and has received over 5 targets five times. That said, he’s had four games with 34.3, 28.8, 32.2 and 28.6 DKFP. With how much pressure the Dallas defense can generate, I’d imagine that McCaffrey will be more involved, both on the ground and through the air. More screens perhaps to neutralize the pass rush? Regardless, McCaffrey should be heavily involved and is always in play to put up the top score on the slate.

Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Jerick McKinnon ($6,000)

Value

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, $5,700 – During the regular season, the Giants were dead-last in rush defense DVOA. In Week 14, Sanders rushed 17 times for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, which translated to 31.5 DKFP. No need to galaxy brain this one.


Wide Receiver

Stud

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $7,700 — Diggs has received double-digit targets in eight games this season, but seven of those were by Week 12. That said, he did receive 9 targets in three of the remaining six games. Over the past two weeks, he’s caught 7 passes and exceeded 100 yards receiving in both contests.

The Bengals are in the bottom third of blitz rate and play a lot of zone. In addition, they have been very good at limiting running quarterbacks, so the Bills will likely have to matriculate down the field in a more dink-and-dunk fashion. That should provide elevated targets for Diggs, who is the sixth-highest graded receiver against zone defenses according to PFF.

Other Options – AJ Brown ($7,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), Christian Kirk ($6,000)

Value

Richie James, New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, $3,900 – James had been playing around 80% of the snaps towards the end of the regular season, but that number dropped down to 60% last week. The Eagles have been susceptible to slot receivers, and that is where James primarily operates from. When these teams met in Week 14, James caught seven of nine targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. If attacking the Giants passing offense, he may go overlooked.

Other Options – Zay Jones ($4,700), Gabe Davis ($4,800), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,900)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,700 – If I like Mahomes to have a good day, it only makes sense to recommend his number target. Kelce has 152 targets on the season. The next closest has 101. Kelce has received at least 7 targets in every game but one this season, with six games in double digits. In the one game he failed to receive 7 targets, he got six. The floor is incredibly high, scoring double-digit DKFP in every game but one and he’s exceeded 20 DKFP nine times this season. Need ceiling? Look no further, as Kelce has a 33.5 and 38.5 DKFP game on the ledger.

Other Options – George Kittle ($5,700)

Value

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, $4,200 The 49ers are second in rush-defense DVOA, so it’s going to be difficult moving the ball on the ground. While the 49ers are also fifth in pass defense, that is likely the more exploitable path. Over the last three games, Schultz has garnered eight, nine and 10 targets. His DKFP production was bolstered by two 2-touchdown games, but the volume of targets should provide a decent floor with the upside of the touchdowns going to him.

Other Options – Evan Engram ($4,300)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Chiefs DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,100 – The Chiefs will likely put up points in this one, which will force the Jaguars to respond aggressively. That should allow for more opportunities for sacks, fumbles and interceptions. While the Jaguars have experienced the hostility of Arrowhead, traveling there for a playoff game will be a different level. It’s within the range of outcomes that the Chiefs defense, which plays significantly better at home, completely overwhelms the Jaguars.

Value

Bills DST vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $2,900 – I’m expecting this to be a hard-fought, defensive game. Both teams don’t blitz much and are excellent at limiting touchdowns in the red zone. Could the game explode? Sure, as both offenses are explosive. That said, the primary reason I’m liking the Bills defense is the injuries along the offensive line for Cincinnati.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.