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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 18

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there is one game with a total of at least 45 points: MIN/CHI (46). Six games have a total at 40 or below: CLE/PIT (40.5), TB/ATL (40.5), NYJ/MIA (38.5), HOU/IND (38), ARI/SF (40) and LAC/DEN (39.5). There are two double-digit favorites: PHI -14 over NYG and SF -14 over ARI. Three games are within a field goal: PIT -2.3 over CLE, MIA -1 over NYJ and IND -3 over HOU. CHI, WAS and DEN are home dogs.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, $8,200 — Out of all the quarterbacks priced above $6,000, Hurts is the one I trust the most. But that’s not saying much because I don’t trust any of them! The Eagles have something to play for, as they get the No. 1 seed with a victory. In addition, the matchup is a good one, as Hurts pasted the Giants for 30.38 DKFP in Week 14 and now New York will likely rest their starters since they are locked into their seeding.

I do think Hurts will put up some points, but a ceiling game is highly unlikely since he won’t be pushed to be aggressive. Plus, the run game will likely be the focal point in this one. Projected ownership and roster construction will be huge in deciding whether to roll with Hurts.

Other Options – Justin Fields ($7,700) if he plays, Geno Smith ($6,000)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Bears QB Justin Fields (hip) has been ruled out for Week 18 vs. the Vikings.

Value

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, $5,300 — The Saints and Panthers both have nothing to play for but Darnold has been announced as the starter for Carolina. Since returning to action in Week 12, it’s been a slow progression back to viability. The completion percentage had increased in every game before last week when it dropped to 62.2% from 68.2%. He put up 341 yards and three touchdowns against a tough Buccaneers defense, resulting in 27.64 DKFP. That is now two games with at least 20 DKFP.

Is this the New World Order? It’s hard to trust that it is. That said, there has been tangible improvement in the passing acumen while Darnold still possesses sneaky rushing equity, as he’s scored two touchdowns since returning and rushed five and six times over the last two weeks.

Other Options – Taysom Hill ($4,800), Nick Mullens ($4,600)


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Running Back

Stud

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams, $6,400 — The Seahawks can get into the playoffs with a victory and a Packers loss. Green Bay doesn’t play until later in the night, so it’s full steam ahead for Seattle. Over the last two weeks, Walker has rushed 23 and 26 times for 133 and 107 yards, respectively. He’s a zero in the passing game but it’s unlikely that he gets game-scripted out of this one, especially at home.

Other Options – Najee Harris ($6,100), Miles Sanders ($5,900)

Value

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans, $5,200 – Neither team has much to play for and this game has a paltry total of 38. That said, both teams will likely just ground and pound, keep the clock moving and get the golf clubs ready for the summer. Since Moss entered the fray three weeks ago, he’s rushed 15, 12 and 24 times. He’s a zero in the passing game but there likely won’t be much passing in this one and little risk of getting game-scripted out.

Houston is 26th in rush defense DVOA and has allowed the most rushing yards, touchdowns and red zone goal-to-go carries to opposing running backs.

Other Options – Matt Breida ($5,000), Alexander Mattison ($5,100)


Wide Receiver

Stud

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, $8,200 — The Cowboys can win the NFC East with a victory and an Eagles loss. If both Philadelphia and San Francisco lose, then Dallas would get the No. 1 seed. All three teams play at the same time, so there is a chance that Dallas rests players in the second half if both the Eagles and 49ers are up big. That said, it should be pedal to the metal in the first half.

Washington is 10th in rush defense DVOA while being 17th in pass defense. Through the air is the path of least resistance. When these teams met back in Week 4, Lamb caught six of eight targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. That was with Cooper Rush under center. Over the last two weeks with Dak Prescott ($6,600), Lamb has received 14 and 11 targets, racking up 100 and 120 yards, respectively, with two touchdowns.

Other Options – Jaylen Waddle ($7,300), DK Metcalf ($6,700), Tyler Lockett ($6,400), DJ Moore ($6,100)

Value

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, $4,700 – There’s a good chance that the Vikings rest starters at some point, which would elevate Osborn to a more prominent target role. Last week in a blowout loss, Osborn was in the game at the end and caught a touchdown.


Tight End

Stud

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals, $6,000 – San Francisco has a chance for the No. 1 seed if they win and get an Eagles loss. Last week, Kittle only caught four of eight targets for 23 yards, but he did score a touchdown. In the prior two weeks, he went for 120 and 93 yards while catching two touchdowns in each contest.

The Cardinals have allowed the second-most yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends. In Week 11 against Arizona, Kittle caught four of six targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns.

Other Options – Mark Andrews ($5,400)

Value

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, $3,600 There’s some risk with Conklin because the Jets have nothing to play for. If he plays, the matchup is pristine as the Dolphins have allowed the second-most touchdowns to the position and fifth-most fantasy points.

Other Options – Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,900)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

49ers DST vs. Arizona Cardinals, $4,100 – The 49ers got lit up by Jarrett Stidham last week, but it was Jarrett Stidham! No shame there. I kid. They should get back to their quarterback-havocing ways against David Blough ($4,900) this week. San Francisco is favored by a whopping 14 points and the 49ers have tons of motivation in this one. On the season, the 49ers D/ST has scored double-digit DKFP seven times.

Other Options – Eagles DST ($4,000), Cowboys DST ($3,900)

Value

Falcons DST vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $2,400 – The Falcons are dead-last in adjusted sack rate but they are playing at home and could face the Tampa Bay backups for a significant portion of the game. Hey, Any Given Sunday. Back in Week 6 against the 49ers, they put up 13 DKFP at home.

Other Options – Dolphins DST ($3,000), Colts DST ($3,100), Seahawks DST ($3,300)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.