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How about a little NBA DFS action before the big game? There is nothing else to do today, so let’s just punt the whole day and enjoy the two-game NBA slate that leads into the Super Bowl.
For the first appetizer, the Boston Celtics host the Memphis Grizzlies at 2 p.m. ET. The second trip to the buffet will be the Detroit Pistons traveling just across the border to Toronto for a 3 p.m. ET tip.
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Guard
Studs
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, $10,700 — With only two games to pick from, it would be ludicrous to fade Morant. The Grizzlies’ slide has ended (losers of seven of eight) with back-to-back wins. The losses had little to do with Morant’s plays — over 54 DKFP in six of the last seven games with an average of 59.6 DKFP per game — and everything to do with the Grizzlies’ depleted roster. Memphis is healthier, and as the team around Morant has improved, some of the burdens and stress have been removed and he’s playing better. He scored 61.75 DKFP in a 21-point drubbing of the Timberwolves on Friday.
Derrick White, Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $6,700 — Don’t expect another 65 DKFP from Derrick White. His role on the short-handed Celtics will be the same today, but Memphis is a much tougher matchup than Charlotte. Those two teams are on opposite sides of the spectrum defensively. However, they both play up-tempo basketball. The Grizzlies are second in pace. It may not be an efficient afternoon for White, but he should get there through volume. He’s scored over 30 DKFP in six of his last eight games. A 40-point performance is a reasonable expectation with Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart out. White won’t likely go 8-for-14 from the 3-point line again, but his willingness to chuck is encouraging.
Value
Sam Hauser, Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,100 — Position flexibility is valuable on small slates. Don’t overlook the utility of Hauser’s eligibility at SG and SF. With Jaylen Brown out, Hauser has started two of the last three games, and he played over 30 minutes in those two games and scored 28 and 22.25 DKFP. Sandwiched in between those games was 25.5 DKFP in 20 minutes on Wednesday. He has reached 5x value in each of his last four games (excluding the Feb. 3 game where he played one minute).
Jaden Ivey, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons, $5,300 — Can anyone go under owned on a two-game slate? The Pistons are going to test this hypothesis on Sunday. PG Killian Hayes ($4,900) has squandered a golden opportunity this season. It got worse on Friday. Hayes was 1-for-11 from the field and managed just 18.5 DKFP in 39 minutes against the short-handed Spurs. There’s a reason the Pistons are cheap. You get what you pay for, and you pay for what you get. Ivey scored 39.5 DKFP in 44 minutes on Friday. That’s not quite a point per minute, and it gets worse. He was 3-for-15 from the field — 0-for-7 from downtown — and 11 of his points were from the charity stripe. This screams, “not replicable.” But it’s Detroit, and if coach Dwane Casey gave 44 minutes to Ivey in the win, then he should play over 30 minutes on Sunday.
Forward
Studs
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $11,300 — With PF/C Al Horford ($4,700), SG Jaylen Brown and PG Marcus Smart in, Tatum runs the show. With them out, he is the show. Horford should be available on Sunday, but the other two will remain out. On Friday, Tatum scored 41 points on his way to 58.5 DKFP. He has scored over 55 DKFP in six of the last eight games. His two let-down games were typical Tatum disappointments. Some nights he just goes cold. Those games were more frequent in previous seasons. He’s become a much more consistent shooter. He can go cold and Memphis does have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. However, fading Tatum on a two-game slate — with one of the games being an ugly matchup between the Raptors and Pistons — is playing with fire.
Gary Trent Jr., Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons, $6,100 — It’s slim pickings on Sunday. It’s a two-game slate and the Raptors vs. the Pistons is not a compelling DFS matchup. The Pistons have the second-worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA, so picking multiple Raptors is not the worst idea. Trent is playing nearly 40 minutes per game and is firing 15 to 20 shots per game. At this price, on this slate, in this matchup, Trent makes sense. Under any other circumstance, Trent does not make sense. Today is different.
Value
Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, $4,800 — As if a two-game slate wasn’t tricky enough, there’s a couple curve balls throw in with the trade-deadline additions moving into rotations. What should we expect from SG/SF Luke Kennard ($3,100) in his debut? Who will lose minutes? Clarke’s role hasn’t changed much this season, so it’s unlikely to change now. He probably won’t play more than 20 minutes, but he is a fantasy-point-per-minute producer (1.1 FPPM), and he’s been even better than that in his last two contests. He scored 30.25 DKFP in 25 minutes on Tuesday and 26 DKFP in 19 minutes on Friday.
Isaiah Livers, Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, $3,400 — The Pistons rank 27th in offensive efficiency rating and are slightly above average in pace. The Raptors will likely goober up the Pistons in Toronto. This makes the Pistons the least attractive targets, but they have low-price tags and will likely be the lowest owned (as they should be). PF/C Isaiah Stewart ($5,100) is a safer option. He’s starting alongside C Jalen Duren and averaging 32.6 DKFP in 30.6 MPG in his last five starts for a return of 6.7x. Livers’ CV is less sound. It’s practically a blank sheet of paper. His resume has his name, email address, phone number, jersey number and just one bullet point — scored 32 DKFP on Friday. The good ole’ one-game sample size for the two-game slate. Does it get any better than this? He played 40 minutes against the Spurs. Half of that at this price is worth consideration on a two-game slate.
Center
Studs
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons, $9,500 — The Raptors’ offensive efficiency rating is slightly above average, but they spread out their scoring and play at the 24th pace. Most DFS players are going to spend up on Morant or Tatum. This will lead to low ownership for Siakam in a very favorable matchup. The Pistons present a propitious matchup with a 116.1 Defensive Efficiency Rating (29th), and their 102.4 in Pace (12th) is a boost for the Raptors’ offense. Also, the Pistons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Value
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, $5,200 — He is the second coming of Ben Wallace. Duren is an absolute monster on the glass. Who knows what the situation is with C James Wisemen and what the future holds, but on Sunday the Pistons frontcourt still belongs to Jalen Duren. In Friday’s double-OT win over the Spurs, Duren added another dimension to his game. He wasn’t just a rebound machine, he was the offensive catalyst. He took a career-high 20 shots and made 13 of them for a career-high 30 points. He also dominated the boards as per usual with 17 rebounds.
Xavier Tillman, Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, $4,600 — Three weeks ago, Tillman cost the bare minimum. The increase in salary says a lot. Over the last nine games, Tillman is averaging 23.2 DKFP in 24.2 MPG for a nightly return of 6x value. He has scored 22 DKFP or more in seven of those nine games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.